ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Derek Ortt

#7721 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:08 pm


But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.


Please see my thread on surge
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Re: Re:

#7722 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:08 pm

Reposting. Please use this.

CrazyC83 wrote:Everyone who is in the following situations MUST evacuate:

1) If you are south of I-10/I-12 between Beaumont, Texas and Pascagoula, Mississippi. Regardless of your base elevation (and few places there are above the potential surge), you would get stranded in practically an island for days or weeks with no chance for help if you get a direct hit.

2) If you are less than 25 feet above sea level in Louisiana or Mississippi, or 15 feet in Southeast Texas or Alabama, or 5 feet in the Florida Panhandle. There are spots where the surge line crosses that corridor, and you will still be in danger.

3) If your house cannot withstand wind gusts of 120 mph. This is a no-brainer, as mobile homes and weak structures will not withstand the winds even with a glancing blow. Not to mention the tornado threat.

4) If you live in a river flood plain. Not the greatest threat in coastal areas, but river flooding is always an issue with heavy rain in inland areas, even hundreds of miles inland.


Based on the NHC's wind speed probability products, the following (selected) U.S. cities have x chance of tropical-storm force winds in the next 5 days. These probabilities will increase as the storm moves closer. Not all the cities are listed here, so consult the forecast for your nearest city.

My personal suggestion is that anyone with a 40% chance or higher of TS force winds as of now should evacuate, because as the storm approaches the percentage is only going to get higher.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ONT12.KNHC

65% or higher chance of TS force winds in next 5 days
Mobile, Alabama — 68% (15% chance of hurricane force winds)
Gulfport, Mississippi — 81% (25%)
Buras, Louisiana — 91% (47%)
New Orleans — 88% (40%)
Baton Rouge, Louisiana — 83% (33%)
New Iberia, Louisiana — 78% (33%)

40–64% chance of TS force winds in next 5 days
Pensacola, Florida — 54%
Jackson, Mississippi — 59%
Shreveport, Louisiana — 42%
Port Arthur, Texas — 49%

Other significant values:
Houston 30% chance of TS winds
Galveston, TX 36% chance of TS winds
Panama City, FL 34% chance of TS winds

Please, use the wind speeds probability advisory — it's very helpful.
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Scorpion

#7723 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:08 pm

-75C cloudtops all along the western side now..
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7724 Postby soonertwister » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:09 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
MisUndrstd wrote:
Hello32020 wrote:Ugg at the person who just called into CNN from the ninth ward saying they were sleeping in until morning to evacuate. The highways are gonna be packed by then probably.

EDIT: Aren't they already packed now...


Hello,

The highways are packed I can verify this as I was just out in it. On I-10 East through Gulfport/Biloxi traffic is NOT flowing, it is at a crawl... same with the other routes in Mississippi that Louisiana's folks are taking. Right off the Interstate gas stations are running out of gas. You might find a station with Premium gas but Regular is kind of hard to come by. So crawling along the Interstate will do nothing but burn up precious fuel. Tomorrow I suppose it will be worse, especially since many in Mississippi will be under evacuation orders. I'm sure the evacuation routes all over Louisiana are just as crammed packed. If I were him I might try leaving in the middle of the night, like about 2 am or 3 am but I doubt it will make much of difference. Waiting to leave is just prolonging your misery!

Are they focusing on people in low lying areas first and foremost with evac procedure?


It's probably every man for himself at this point. It's later in the evening on Saturday, some people probably have been drinking, there are bound to be some accidents from carelessness and otherwise, not to mention car troubles or running out of gas. It's going to be a madhouse from now until near landfall, I'd imagine.
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superfly

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7725 Postby superfly » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:10 pm

It will be interesting to see what recon finds. I think it has weakened quite a bit due to dry air entrainment. The IR presentation is still pretty good, but it really looks like a mess on radar. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the pressure is in the 960s now. I do expect it to re-intensify later but not in the short term.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7726 Postby MSRobi911 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:10 pm

AMEN Derek!
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#7727 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:11 pm

I'd like to know where scorpion is getting his updates, they must be updating faster than NHC his timestamp on his pic is 30 mins newer than NHC. Also if you look at NHC WV/IR they just put the 03:15 IR pic up and if you watch it the outflow gets decisively better on the west side of the storm. The bands actually spread out and push south. But without the 03:45 pic its hard to tell if its just a one time thing or the beginning of a trend.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7728 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:11 pm

The IR top doesn't correspond to the weak radar indication of the south core.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7729 Postby tallywx » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:11 pm

alicia83 wrote:
I watched that station. Made me sick. No sooner than Nagin was off, one of their forecasters was playing down the storm. It's like they were focusing on the black line from earlier, and saying what damage could be expected and where as if it was carved in stone, and without giving any nod to the possibility of any slight deviation from that forecasted path.

Nagin said in so many words, any bets on the levies holding were off.


Isn't WWL supposed to be the crown jewel of New Orleans news/weather broadcasting? Or have they completely tarnished any legacy that Nash Roberts established at that station? Is there a better one nowadays?
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7730 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:11 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma


No one really knows, sounds like he's basing it off of historical statistics. Lets assume for a second a worst case scenario if that helps you plan. Lets say it comes ashore just south of NO as a cat5 storm which is possible but to me seems very unlikely. Then by the time it reaches baton rouge you'd likely experience strong cat2 winds, probably 110mph sustained winds. If it comes on shore as a strong 3 or weak 4 which does seem very likely then you'll probably see sustained winds in the 90 mph range as it makes its way to baton rouge.

Now if it comes onshore at its projected path, that would put it over land slightly longer and put the storm slightly further away from baton rouge. If it comes ashore as a strong cat3 that would put you guys seeing sustained winds in the 70mph range I would suspect. Hopefully this give you some idea.

I think he was probably under estimating a bit.



I was thinking the same thing. Just did not sound right. I know we had a 75mph gust during Katrina and that was when she was east of N.O.
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Re:

#7731 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.


Please see my thread on surge

And based ALSO on her overall size. Again, comparing CAT 5's Camille and Katrina, one being huge the other being small, the resultant surge was completely different eventhough landfall was generally in the same area.
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Re:

#7732 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:12 pm

Didn't Rita cause surge flooding in limited parts of New Orleans?

The surge threat is really the big story in my opinion...not only for the damage it could cause but also because it doesn't require the eye to pass over an area to wreak havoc.

Derek Ortt wrote:
But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.


Please see my thread on surge
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Re: Re:

#7733 Postby soonertwister » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:12 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Scorpion wrote:It's sure falling apart now..

Image


I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or if you are being serious.


Lookin' at THAT pic, he's surely being sarcastic!!!


That looks like a colorized photo of a giant glazed donut! Yummm...
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Re: Re:

#7734 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:12 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:
But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.


Please see my thread on surge

And based ALSO on her overall size. Again, comparing CAT 5's Camille and Katrina, one being huge the other being small, the resultant surge was completely different eventhough landfall was generally in the same area.

Very true.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7735 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:13 pm

Getting its act together quick.
Image

For an IR loop you can use

copy paste below, board software isn't liking it.

Code: Select all

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8 HURRICANE&lat=23&lon=-83&map=standard&zoom=2&info=ir&quality=95&type=Animation&numframes=12&width=1200&height=800&palette=spect.pal&mapcolor=white


Build your own instructions:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/getsatellite.html
Last edited by tolakram on Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#7736 Postby cpdaman » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:13 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:
But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.


Please see my thread on surge

And based ALSO on her overall size. Again, comparing CAT 5's Camille and Katrina, one being huge the other being small, the resultant surge was completely different eventhough landfall was generally in the same area.


were they not both extremely high surges
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#7737 Postby AlabamaDave » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:13 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma


Sounds pretty accurate to me if Gustav goes in on the currently projected track. It could be a little low, but not much. I think your bigger worry would be amouont of rainfall and associated flooding.


How are y'all figuring this? The NHC track has Gustav as a Category 4 just North of Morgan City and then passing about 25-30 miles West of Ascension Parish right after that. Seems like they should expect a whole lot more than 35-40 mph sustained winds if that verifies.
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Re:

#7738 Postby Texashawk » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:13 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:I'd like to know where scorpion is getting his updates, they must be updating faster than NHC his timestamp on his pic is 30 mins newer than NHC. Also if you look at NHC WV/IR they just put the 03:15 IR pic up and if you watch it the outflow gets decisively better on the west side of the storm. The bands actually spread out and push south. But without the 03:45 pic its hard to tell if its just a one time thing or the beginning of a trend.


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Great site. I never leave home without it. :wink:
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#7739 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:13 pm

I think the eye is getting bigger.
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Re: Re:

#7740 Postby soonertwister » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:15 pm

jinftl wrote:Didn't Rita cause surge flooding in limited parts of New Orleans?

The surge threat is really the big story in my opinion...not only for the damage it could cause but also because it doesn't require the eye to pass over an area to wreak havoc.

Derek Ortt wrote:
But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.


Please see my thread on surge


That and the ghastly accumulations of rain that could occur should Gustav nearly stall as forecast well inland. But before that stall, Gustav is likely to act like a brush hog from hell in the hours before.
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