ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

I think the eye is getting bigger.

Its definately clear out.

[HurryKane]

Umm it looks to be intensifying pretty well now.

Just 6 minutes ago

It's sure falling apart now..

Scorpion was being sarcastic with his second comment.

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, we all must take a look at this LAST frame....I totally agree that this is on the increase

#1 notice the increased precipitation south of the eyewall
#2 notice the eye coming into better view
#3 notice, not only the increasing reds, but now the dark grey showing up in the reds...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

After you click the above link, please tell me what you think...

[Ixolib]

But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.

Please see my thread on surge

And based ALSO on her overall size. Again, comparing CAT 5's Camille and Katrina, one being huge the other being small, the resultant surge was completely different eventhough landfall was generally in the same area.

were they not both extremely high surges

Yes, but Camille's was not quite as widespread or far-reaching. At 20 feet above sea level, my home in Biloxi took NO WATER during Camille . Yet in Katrina, I took 4 feet of surge. Hence the difference between the two - small vs. large.

[AlabamaDave]

Didn't Rita cause surge flooding in limited parts of New Orleans?

The surge threat is really the big story in my opinion...not only for the damage it could cause but also because it doesn't require the eye to pass over an area to wreak havoc.

I have read that there were 125 mph winds in downtown New Orleans when Hurricane Betsy crossed the coast in almost the same location and similar intensity projected for Gustav. NOLA may get a lot more wind than they experienced for Katrina depending on how wide the windfields are at the time of landfall.

[Storm Contractor]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

When Charley came though Florida in 04 the eye was pretty much directly over me east of orlando, we had 105 at the airport and the large trees were down everywhere! Good Luck! Stay Safe!

[Scorpion]

CDO is almost a perfect donut, -80C cloudtops, eye is clearing out. Kaboom.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

Sounds pretty accurate to me if Gustav goes in on the currently projected track. It could be a little low, but not much. I think your bigger worry would be amouont of rainfall and associated flooding.

How are y'all figuring this? The NHC track has Gustav as a Category 4 just North of Morgan City and then passing about 25-30 miles West of Ascension Parish right after that. Seems like they should expect a whole lot more than 35-40 mph sustained winds if that verifies.

Alabama, that is my point. I just can't figure out, when it is going to be that close IF it stays on its current landfall point, how we are not going to get worse conditions. Especially if it comes in further east.

[Dean4Storms]

And to think Wxman57 was cranking up the thought of dragging out Bones when Gus was visiting Haiti!

[6SpeedTA95]

Folks I'm off to bed, but I will be on bright and early. Anyone in the path of this storm please stay safe.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Gustav is moving more on track with NHC now.

[ConvergenceZone]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION has now begun.....the last Satellite frame proves it...........

[Pebbles]

I watched that station. Made me sick. No sooner than Nagin was off, one of their forecasters was playing down the storm. It's like they were focusing on the black line from earlier, and saying what damage could be expected and where as if it was carved in stone, and without giving any nod to the possibility of any slight deviation from that forecasted path.

Nagin said in so many words, any bets on the levies holding were off.

actually I have to jump in and make a correction on that. Been listening to that broadcast and need to clarify. He actually I think was trying to correct something so no one got the wrong idea. He was trying to say that the Mayor was 'right' that the "Footprint" of the storm is 900 miles across, but that the hurricane force winds were not 900 miles out but only 70 atm.

That forcaster at that particular point was correct in everything he said. I don't think he was downplaying at all at that point. He said he totally agreed with Nagin that people needed to evacuate.. this situation was very serious. At first impression I was thinking he was 'downplaying' things a bit too. But quickly realised what he was doing was just to clarify. Why? Cause well hurricane force winds won't be going "900 miles" out. And we don't want people further out from the track in other states in a panic.

And Nagin kept going on and on about the "900 mile footprint"... of course the Mayor is really trying to get people to evacuate.. and after the Katrina fiasco, I don't blame him one bit for hyping to be honest.

[cpdaman]

But one thing people forget is the surge is dictated by the storms strength at its peak even if that peak was 24 hours before landfall. Katrina as we all remember was a very strong cat5 and as a result had a cat5 surge even though she came ashore as a rapidly weakening cat3.

Please see my thread on surge

And based ALSO on her overall size. Again, comparing CAT 5's Camille and Katrina, one being huge the other being small, the resultant surge was completely different eventhough landfall was generally in the same area.

were they not both extremely high surges

Yes, but Camille's was not quite as widespread or far-reaching. At 20 feet above sea level, my home in Biloxi took NO WATER during Camille . Yet in Katrina, I took 4 feet of surge. Hence the difference between the two - small vs. large.[/quote]

got it, that is actually how i thought it worked, appears gustav would be some where in the middle (maybe closer to camile?) as katrina had TS winds out over 230 miles

[opera ghost]

Couple quick questions before I evacuate... 1) What is the likelyhood that the shear keeps up or increases to put a cap on Gustav's intensity? 2) Is there any chance at all that these eastward trends will continue to perhaps east of the mouth of the Mississippi River?

Thanks... I'll check back every few minutes before I leave.

Please go. If you're even vaguely considering using the answers to justify staying- please just go. New Orleans is the last place in the world you want to be playing roulette with a hurricane right now.

That said- All hurricanes have a cap that they'll hit intensity wise due to environment. If you're asking what the chances are that it won't spin back up to a major? I'd say a major is still in the NHC forecast and I see absolutely no reason to believe anything different. Prepare as though the hurricane is one intensity level higher than forecast... for people in coastal LA- that means evacuating like you've got the devil on your heels. For people in NO- assume the worst. It's the only responsible thing to do now that your government has demanded full evacuations. There have only been three years of work on the levy systems and they're scheduled to be complete in several years- not now. They could hold up beautifully- they might not. Assume the worst and be gloriously happy if you come home to an overgrown lawn and not a whisper of damage.

And as for the track changing- assume if it's in the cone it's fair game. There's a reason I'm still sitting here updating every hour or so- because my city is still in the cone. The likelihood of it coming to Houston decreases with every hour but until I'm out of the cone- I'm going to be glued here. Even once I'm out I'm going to check in to make sure nothing goes wrong. Could it go that far east? Maybe. It could also go directly over NO or anywhere in the cone.

[Category 5]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION has now begun.....the last Satellite frame proves it...........

Please actually look at the Satellite frame before posting.

It's still regathering itself. Intensification will follow soon.

[theworld]

Heat anomally...

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Gustav is moving more on track with NHC now.

Sure, when they have to keep adjusting lol..anyway..good jump nnw from 3:15 to 3:45

[Storm Contractor]

[/quote]


That looks like a colorized photo of a giant glazed donut! Yummm...[/quote]


Yeah, one bite and it will blow you away! Sorry could not resist!

[soonertwister]

Okay, we all must take a look at this LAST frame....I totally agree that this is on the increase

#1 notice the increased precipitation south of the eyewall
#2 notice the eye coming into better view
#3 notice, not only the increasing reds, but now the dark grey showing up in the reds...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

After you click the above link, please tell me what you think...

My personal opinion? Louisiana is in big trouble, again.