ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION has now begun.....the last Satellite frame proves it...........

Do you have figures to back this up? RI can not be determined looking at a satelllite photo. There are several different parameters that are used to determine RI.

[Dean4Storms]

His core sure did a lot of contracting as he passed over Cuba, I wonder if an EWRC was beginning to occur as he went across Cuba because I cannot understand how that quick crossing caused him to contract so much that quick.

Anyone got any ideas other than that?

[soonertwister]

CDO is almost a perfect donut, -80C cloudtops, eye is clearing out. Kaboom.

What do those cloudtops correspond to, 80-85 thousand feet? Man, that is really cold.

[CoCo2]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_042l.gif

Vort max right over NO on this one...I would expect GFDl and HWRF will shift a hair east as well...Probably spliting the difference between Plaquemines and LaFourche...just a guess though. Either way as we get closer actually landfall point could end up being Buras-Triumph or Grand Isle a little west of it.

I live in Plaquemines Parish, Belle Chasse, about 30 miles above Buras. I was just finishing my home from the damage sustained in Katrina. I didn't get water, just loads of wind damage. My parents' home in Port Sulphur was washed away. They now live in Houma, Louisiana. We are scared to death. We are all about to become homeless again as our homes are in the bullseye. Things were just getting back to normal. I know this isn't the place to discuss this, but just wanted the board to know people did return to Plaquemines Parish and did rebuild, heck we rebuilt after Betsy, Camille and Katrina. I don't know where we are going to go after this is over, I can't do this again.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Gustav is moving more on track with NHC now.

Sure, when they have to keep adjusting lol..anyway..good jump nnw from 3:15 to 3:45

Yea, I saw that movement in that period, but even when I put the loop in long motion you can see he turned more 310 for awhile. Let watch to see if this turn back more 320ish continues.

[ConvergenceZone]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION has now begun.....the last Satellite frame proves it...........

Please actually look at the Satellite frame before posting.

It's still regathering itself. Intensification will follow soon.

I did look at the last satellite frame. I'm the one that put the link there... A picture is worth a thousand words, and this is exactly the way it looked the last time it bombed... When you see the eye clear out, greys and reds increase, and it become more symetrical ALL in one frame, then it's pretty obvious....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[theworld]

[superfly]

The eyewall is now open on the eastern side.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like Gustav is moving more on track with NHC now.

Sure, when they have to keep adjusting lol..anyway..good jump nnw from 3:15 to 3:45

And continuing at 4:01 per NASA site

[senorpepr]

Added a new chart that encompasses SLP, streamlines, and surface plots, along with base reflectivity out of Key West and Miami...

[tolakram]

His core sure did a lot of contracting as he passed over Cuba, I wonder if an EWRC was beginning to occur as he went across Cuba because I cannot understand how that quick crossing caused him to contract so much that quick.

Anyone got any ideas other than that?

I think the high terrain on the north side of the crossing did something. If you look at the satellite views the eye was mainly intact until it hit that region.



It would be nice to see some photos of that area.

[Just Joshing You]

RAPID INTENSIFICATION has now begun.....the last Satellite frame proves it...........

Please actually look at the Satellite frame before posting.

It's still regathering itself. Intensification will follow soon.

I did look at the last satellite frame. A picture is worth a thousand words, and this is exactly the way it looked the last time it bombed... When you see the eye clear out, greys and reds increase, and it become more symetrical ALL in one frame, then it's pretty obvious....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

RI can only be stated after a decrease of 42 MB in 24 hours. So if it goes to 906 by this time tomorrow, then it will be R.I. If not.. it was just a normal deepening hurricane.

[Sanibel]

Sort of a seat of the pants thing, but if it goes right of track before the next trop point Grande Isle. If it stays on this general trop point heading Houma.

Black IR now. Right back to business.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Gustav is moving more on track with NHC now.

Sure, when they have to keep adjusting lol..anyway..good jump nnw from 3:15 to 3:45

And continuing at 4:01 per NASA site

Could you post that link..Thanks

[GoneBabyGone]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... lix&unit=0

That's what I have been looking at and it says Baton Rouge will have 70-77 mile sustained with gusts from 90-94.

If you're south of here, it will probably be worse

[cheezyWXguy]

The eyewall is now open on the eastern side.

Yeah, its dry as desert and this storm is falling to minimal cat 2 in the next 3 hours with no hope of strengthening. It couldnt possibly be because it just spent 6 hours its life near/over cuba. Give it some time to recover, and I can guarantee that this will have a peak higher than what we saw today, assuming there is no ewrc.

[Just Joshing You]

The eyewall is now open on the eastern side.

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

[vbhoutex]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

Sounds pretty accurate to me if Gustav goes in on the currently projected track. It could be a little low, but not much. I think your bigger worry would be amouont of rainfall and associated flooding.

How are y'all figuring this? The NHC track has Gustav as a Category 4 just North of Morgan City and then passing about 25-30 miles West of Ascension Parish right after that. Seems like they should expect a whole lot more than 35-40 mph sustained winds if that verifies.

Two reasons. The winds coming into Ascension Parish will have travelled over a lot of land and due to land friction would be quite reduced. Also saw some grapics of the expected winds based on the current track and intensity forecast and hurricne force winds did not reach that far. Gusts to 75 mph are quite possible imo, but sustained winds especially reduce quickly due to land friction.

[tolakram]

The eyewall is now open on the eastern side.

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/2916 ... 01aco0.gif

I don't trust that radar. Below I think you can see a break but it fills back in quickly.

[jdjaguar]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_042l.gif

Vort max right over NO on this one...I would expect GFDl and HWRF will shift a hair east as well...Probably spliting the difference between Plaquemines and LaFourche...just a guess though. Either way as we get closer actually landfall point could end up being Buras-Triumph or Grand Isle a little west of it.

I live in Plaquemines Parish, Belle Chasse, about 30 miles above Buras. I was just finishing my home from the damage sustained in Katrina. I didn't get water, just loads of wind damage. My parents' home in Port Sulphur was washed away. They now live in Houma, Louisiana. We are scared to death. We are all about to become homeless again as our homes are in the bullseye. Things were just getting back to normal. I know this isn't the place to discuss this, but just wanted the board to know people did return to Plaquemines Parish and did rebuild, heck we rebuilt after Betsy, Camille and Katrina. I don't know where we are going to go after this is over, I can't do this again.

my prayers are with you..and this is as good a place as any.