ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

The eyewall is now open on the eastern side.

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/2916 ... 01aco0.gif

I don't trust that radar. Below I think you can see a break but it fills back in quickly.

Certainly NNW on radar as well

[CYCLONE MIKE]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Ivanhater, try this.

[tallywx]

Clue for you nightwatchers and then I'm heading to bed. Watch the lightning tracker. When you see a ring of lightning strikes in part or all of the eyewall, then Gustav is booming again.

[cpdaman]

litte OT but watching TWC for the last few hours i have to say Dave shwartz (who's shift just started) is one of the better communicators on the show

and yes this is re-"Bombing" as we speak

hoping she misses the loop current just to the east

[wxmann_91]

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

It's definitely a weaker side. There's some significant southerly shear. I don't think this will restrengthen to a Cat 5, it might restrengthen a little to a mid-strong Cat 4 or remain relatively steady state. Nothing to sneeze at regardless, still a very strong hurricane.

[ConvergenceZone]

RI can only be stated after a decrease of 42 MB in 24 hours. So if it goes to 906 by this time tomorrow, then it will be R.I. If not.. it was just a normal deepening hurricane.

You are right, I can't actually say RI is happening, but I do believe that it's at least begun...Whether it can sustaain that, I don't know... I don't think it's going to be slow intensification, so perhaps moderate deepening is a better word...

[Bolebuns]

Clue for you nightwatchers and then I'm heading to bed. Watch the lightning tracker. When you see a ring of lightning strikes in part or all of the eyewall, then Gustav is booming again.

link?

[jinftl]

The radar is not painting the true picture....clearly there is data from the area of the eye not being picked up or depicted accurately due to distance or resolution issues.....otherwise the weather in miami looks as bad as any band gustav has near the eye!

The eyewall is now open on the eastern side.

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/2916 ... 01aco0.gif

I don't trust that radar. Below I think you can see a break but it fills back in quickly.

[cpdaman]

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

It's definitely a weaker side. There's some significant southerly shear. I don't think this will restrengthen to a Cat 5, it might restrengthen a little to a mid-strong Cat 4 or remain relatively steady state. Nothing to sneeze at regardless, still a very strong hurricane.

give it time the southerly inflow is still impacted by cuba 50 miles to the south. she will wrap just fine with this "significant southerly wind shear" she did 8 hours ago.

[Hyperstorm]

This system will HAVE to accelerate its forward speed if it's going to make landfall as a Category 4 as forecast. Right now, upper-level winds on the southern side are starting to approach the system and will impede this system maintaining Category 4 intensity for much longer. You can see on water vapor loops the upper-level shield moving northward VERY rapidly toward the system. That will be GREAT news if I wake up tomorrow morning to a Category 3 or LOWER. That is VERY possible with the way the upper-level winds are impinging heavily on the southern side.

This system is reminding me of the structure/side of Dennis as it was making landfall in 2004. IMO, this is the kind of system we will see in Louisiana - Category 2 or minimal 3 with a similar size to Dennis. Still, something dangerous, but not catastrophic/widespread as some make it seem to be.

In any case, PREPARE for the WORST, but I'm seeing some good things tonight. God Bless all in its path...

[Scorpion]

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

It's definitely a weaker side. There's some significant southerly shear. I don't think this will restrengthen to a Cat 5, it might restrengthen a little to a mid-strong Cat 4 or remain relatively steady state. Nothing to sneeze at regardless, still a very strong hurricane.

You also said this wouldn't become a major.

[TSmith274]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_042l.gif

Vort max right over NO on this one...I would expect GFDl and HWRF will shift a hair east as well...Probably spliting the difference between Plaquemines and LaFourche...just a guess though. Either way as we get closer actually landfall point could end up being Buras-Triumph or Grand Isle a little west of it.

I live in Plaquemines Parish, Belle Chasse, about 30 miles above Buras. I was just finishing my home from the damage sustained in Katrina. I didn't get water, just loads of wind damage. My parents' home in Port Sulphur was washed away. They now live in Houma, Louisiana. We are scared to death. We are all about to become homeless again as our homes are in the bullseye. Things were just getting back to normal. I know this isn't the place to discuss this, but just wanted the board to know people did return to Plaquemines Parish and did rebuild, heck we rebuilt after Betsy, Camille and Katrina. I don't know where we are going to go after this is over, I can't do this again.

CoCo2, I'm very familiar with Plaquemines myself. While I don't live there (I live in Algiers), I do have a house there in Buras right accross from the old Triumph Shell/Fina station. It was only 10 months old when Katrina came. Replaced it about 6 months ago. Lets just hope that the west-facing levees hold. In Katrina, as I'm sure you know, the wall of water came from the river when the I-wall levees collapsed. I know it doesn't look good at all. But at least we have a fighting chance with those levees. Gotta focus on the positives. That's what I'm trying to do. Good luck to you and your family. In my short time down there, I've made a lot of friends. Those are some great people that certainly do not deserve this.

[Ivanhater]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Ivanhater, try this.

Thanks Mike!

[Scorpion]

This system will HAVE to accelerate its forward speed if it's going to make landfall as a Category 4 as forecast. Right now, upper-level winds on the southern side are starting to approach the system and will impede this system maintaining Category 4 intensity for much longer. You can see on water vapor loops the upper-level shield moving northward VERY rapidly toward the system. That will be GREAT news if I wake up tomorrow morning to a Category 3 or LOWER. That is VERY possible with the way the upper-level winds are impinging heavily on the southern side.

This system is reminding me of the structure/side of Dennis as it was making landfall in 2004. IMO, this is the kind of system we will see in Louisiana - Category 2 or minimal 3 with a similar size to Dennis. Still, something dangerous, but not catastrophic/widespread as some make it seem to be.

In any case, PREPARE for the WORST, but I'm seeing some good things tonight. God Bless all in its path...

I guess the perfect circular CDO and cold cloudtops show its going to weaken significantly overnight.

[wxmann_91]

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

It's definitely a weaker side. There's some significant southerly shear. I don't think this will restrengthen to a Cat 5, it might restrengthen a little to a mid-strong Cat 4 or remain relatively steady state. Nothing to sneeze at regardless, still a very strong hurricane.

You also said this wouldn't become a major.

So I was wrong. Doesn't mean I can't express my opinion. You can't deny that the amount of shear over the system right now is a bit high for a Cat 5. It's why the NHC says this is a tough forecast... the Loop Current has been proven to bomb systems but there's a good bit of shear right now.

[Dean4Storms]

This Sat loop will be a good one to watch overnite.


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

[theworld]

Clue for you nightwatchers and then I'm heading to bed. Watch the lightning tracker. When you see a ring of lightning strikes in part or all of the eyewall, then Gustav is booming again.

As per the lightning comment... here is the video link...
http://www.airshowbuzz.com/videos/view.php?v=9f061057

"Wunderblogger Randy Bynon, a meteorologist with the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, flew through Hurricane Felix on the mission that followed N42RF's. He and Lt Colonel Scott Dufreche have posted a 7-minute video of their flight through Felix. The camera looks forward through the cockpit windows, and one can see the cockpit instruments and the view out the front window. The video starts about 20 miles outside the eye, and during the 4-minute penetration of the eyewall, steadily increasing turbulence shakes the C-130 aircraft and frequent flashes of lightning light up the eyewall clouds. After four minutes, the turbulence suddenly slackens as the airplane breaks into the eye, and you can see spectacular glimpses of the eyewall clouds lit up by lightning flashes. The video finishes with some radar screen shots and fish-eye views of the top of the eye showing the full moon. Amazing stuff!"

[jinftl]

Gustav has not been a Cat 5 officially yet so it can't 'restrengthen' to one.

It is currently a mid-Cat 4...and if it remains 'steady state' it will landfall stronger than katrina did.

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

It's definitely a weaker side. There's some significant southerly shear. I don't think this will restrengthen to a Cat 5, it might restrengthen a little to a mid-strong Cat 4 or remain relatively steady state. Nothing to sneeze at regardless, still a very strong hurricane.

[HurricaneRobert]

No, it isn't. It's probably just not getting picked up by radar. It is still fully intact on my radar.

It's definitely a weaker side. There's some significant southerly shear. I don't think this will restrengthen to a Cat 5, it might restrengthen a little to a mid-strong Cat 4 or remain relatively steady state. Nothing to sneeze at regardless, still a very strong hurricane.

give it time the southerly inflow is still impacted by cuba 50 miles to the south. she will wrap just fine with this "significant southerly wind shear" she did 8 hours ago.

Gustav is a male name, although hurricanes are really genderless things

[cpdaman]

stinking satelite eclipse

i think everyone will be awake till the eclipse ends at 215 edt and the quikest updating sites have shots out by 230 am.

i am thinking a thin black circle around her on infared.