ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[ericinmia]

The new 00z CNC "canadian" Is doing somethign similar to the thing the 00z Euro did yesterday. Landfall southeast florida, and a wrap around through the west coast and up the 'armpit' of Fl. Just slightly west of the previous run...

Here is the new 00z CNC:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

Here is a link to the OLD!!!!! Do not confuse!!! Euro from 00z yesterday, that had the similar solution in it.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8083000!!/

I'm interested to see what the Euro is going to do now... 00z awaits.
-Eric

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00z UKMET

[bahamaswx]

UKMET still refuses to let go of that that SW turn all the way down to Cuba.

[caneseddy]

The new 00z CNC "canadian" Is doing somethign similar to the thing the 00z Euro did yesterday. Landfall southeast florida, and a wrap around through the west coast and up the 'armpit' of Fl. Just slightly west of the previous run...

Here is the new 00z CNC:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

Here is a link to the OLD!!!!! Do not confuse!!! Euro from 00z yesterday, that had the similar solution in it.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8083000!!/

I'm interested to see what the Euro is going to do now... 00z awaits
-Eric

According to the new Canadian, it has Hanna bouncing off Cuba and hitting SE Florida with a 966 pressure, which would correlate to a high Cat 2 if I'm not mistaken

[Evil Jeremy]

Westward trend tonight. A little with the GFS, but alot with the CMC. UKMET stays the same. Still waiting on the new GFDL and HWRF.

EDIT: GFDL more westward, and is no longer showing a loop.

[bahamaswx]

Yep. I noticed that the new GFS takes her a bit further west before shooting off to the NW compared to the previous run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Westward trend tonight. A little with the GFS, but alot with the CMC. UKMET stays the same. Still waiting on the new GFDL and HWRF.

EDIT: GFDL more westward, and is no longer showing a loop.

Based on my review of the GFDL it appears to me to be close to the same...Still shoots it off NW well clear of FLA. Unless I am looking at the wrong thing. Could you provide a link to the 00z run that you watched. Thank you.

SFT

[ericinmia]

The Higher res version of the FSU mm5 is still running but its coming up with a different track already... about a degree and change more southerly at 36hrs.

Edit:
Hmmm... Running at a higher resolution this model really came up with two completely different solutions... at 48hrs its 2 degrees south and 1 east of the lower res run. Not sure why... It also has it intesifying to a cat3 durring this southward dive.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2008 ... track2.png

Higher Res (6km):



Normal Res (18km):

[ericinmia]

FINALLY it's out... and I can go to bed.

The 00z Euro has the storm a hair east of the 12z run yesterday... and has it raking the florida coast.




Side note:
It still has another storm "small in size" barreling though the FL straights, late in the run.

[ericinmia]

00z nogaps has Hannah moving NNW parallel to the coast of Florida... (landfall GA/SC border)

[Thunder44]

6z models initialized winds at 50kts, pressure 999mb

Code: Select all

[b]940   

WHXX01 KWBC 310719 

CHGHUR 

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 

0719 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008 

   

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

   

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080831 0600 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        080831  0600   080831  1800   080901  0600   080901  1800 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    23.1N  68.5W   23.8N  70.4W   24.4N  72.0W   24.8N  73.5W 

BAMD    23.1N  68.5W   23.3N  70.0W   23.3N  71.1W   23.1N  71.9W 

BAMM    23.1N  68.5W   23.6N  70.2W   23.8N  71.6W   24.0N  72.6W 

LBAR    23.1N  68.5W   23.6N  70.1W   23.9N  71.8W   23.9N  73.6W 

SHIP        50KTS          54KTS          59KTS          63KTS 

DSHP        50KTS          54KTS          59KTS          63KTS 

   

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        080902  0600   080903  0600   080904  0600   080905  0600 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    24.7N  74.9W   23.0N  77.5W   20.2N  78.3W   22.9N  76.3W 

BAMD    22.6N  72.4W   22.0N  73.0W   23.5N  74.0W   26.9N  76.4W 

BAMM    23.7N  73.5W   22.6N  75.1W   21.9N  75.7W   24.9N  76.4W 

LBAR    23.7N  75.1W   22.7N  78.2W   22.6N  81.0W   24.8N  84.2W 

SHIP        62KTS          69KTS          74KTS          75KTS 

DSHP        62KTS          69KTS          74KTS          75KTS 

   

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  23.1N LONCUR =  68.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  10KT 

LATM12 =  22.2N LONM12 =  67.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 =   8KT 

LATM24 =  21.8N LONM24 =  65.5W 

WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   45KT 

CENPRS =  999MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   D 

RD34NE =  180NM RD34SE =  160NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW = 130NM  [/b]

[AJC3]

6z models initialized winds at 50kts, pressure 999mb

940
WHXX01 KWBC 310719
CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0719 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR


TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080831 0600 UTC


...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080831 0600 080831 1800 080901 0600 080901 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 68.5W 23.8N 70.4W 24.4N 72.0W 24.8N 73.5W
BAMD 23.1N 68.5W 23.3N 70.0W 23.3N 71.1W 23.1N 71.9W
BAMM 23.1N 68.5W 23.6N 70.2W 23.8N 71.6W 24.0N 72.6W
LBAR 23.1N 68.5W 23.6N 70.1W 23.9N 71.8W 23.9N 73.6W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080902 0600 080903 0600 080904 0600 080905 0600


LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.7N 74.9W 23.0N 77.5W 20.2N 78.3W 22.9N 76.3W
BAMD 22.6N 72.4W 22.0N 73.0W 23.5N 74.0W 26.9N 76.4W
BAMM 23.7N 73.5W 22.6N 75.1W 21.9N 75.7W 24.9N 76.4W
LBAR 23.7N 75.1W 22.7N 78.2W 22.6N 81.0W 24.8N 84.2W
SHIP 62KTS 69KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 62KTS 69KTS 74KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.1N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 65.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 160NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 130NM

This is one of those rare little model quirks that's sort of neat to see. Notice that at H120, the BAM suite is lined up almost on the same exact longitude to the tenth!, with the deep layer BAM exactly 2 degrees north of the medium layer BAM, which is exactly 2 degrees north of the shallow layer BAM. However, they aren't really lined up at all during the previous hours!

[jlauderdal]

It appears to me we are in a similar situation with hanna as we were yesterday. Not enough model consensus to have good confidence on intensity or track and still the possibility that it gets ripped apart. Interesting that the southerly route is still on the table yet the NW route is more than 50/50. Another interesting day to see what happens with the models and the bigger question, does hanna survive.

[deltadog03]

6z models initialized winds at 50kts, pressure 999mb

940
WHXX01 KWBC 310719
CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0719 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR


TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080831 0600 UTC


...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080831 0600 080831 1800 080901 0600 080901 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 68.5W 23.8N 70.4W 24.4N 72.0W 24.8N 73.5W
BAMD 23.1N 68.5W 23.3N 70.0W 23.3N 71.1W 23.1N 71.9W
BAMM 23.1N 68.5W 23.6N 70.2W 23.8N 71.6W 24.0N 72.6W
LBAR 23.1N 68.5W 23.6N 70.1W 23.9N 71.8W 23.9N 73.6W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080902 0600 080903 0600 080904 0600 080905 0600


LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.7N 74.9W 23.0N 77.5W 20.2N 78.3W 22.9N 76.3W
BAMD 22.6N 72.4W 22.0N 73.0W 23.5N 74.0W 26.9N 76.4W
BAMM 23.7N 73.5W 22.6N 75.1W 21.9N 75.7W 24.9N 76.4W
LBAR 23.7N 75.1W 22.7N 78.2W 22.6N 81.0W 24.8N 84.2W
SHIP 62KTS 69KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 62KTS 69KTS 74KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.1N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 65.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 160NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 130NM

This is one of those rare little model quirks that's sort of neat to see. Notice that at H120, the BAM suite is lined up almost on the same exact longitude to the tenth!, with the deep layer BAM exactly 2 degrees north of the medium layer BAM, which is exactly 2 degrees north of the shallow layer BAM. However, they aren't really lined up at all during the previous hours!

Diff. topic....Havn't read yall's disco yet, but did you write it?? You guys do a great job!!! My parents and sister live in stuart and I know I usually look at yall forecast and read your disco to try to see what is going on down there.

[AJC3]

Diff. topic....Havn't read yall's disco yet, but did you write it?? You guys do a great job!!! My parents and sister live in stuart and I know I usually look at yall forecast and read your disco to try to see what is going on down there.

Nope! After having written the long term discussion the last five mornings including Saturday's, I have a well-desered couple days off.


Oh...and thanks for the kind words BTW!

[deltadog03]

LOL what are days off?? HAHA...YW on the comments. I noticed that Stewart wrote the disco this morning for Hanna. A really good one. I know we have talked about the shearing forecasted from the models with a N or NW shear zone that would be coming in. I wonder if its possible that she is "enough" away from the deadly shear to hit the core and maybe that shear would kinda help/hurt the system. Globals still wanna really ramp this one up even with the shear. I did notice that he talked about dual outflow channel, combine that with very warm gulf stream waters=hmmmmmmm

[capepoint]

well if you believe the GFS Hanna will sit in the bahamas for 4 days before heading for the carolinas

I dont really believe anything the models are doing after 3 days now and Im not sure I even trust the 3 day forecast.. this is a complicated situation and im wondering if the models are picking up on Hannas weird interaction with the ULL.. maybe Im wrong I just find it weird for a storm to stall for 4 days and not move.. but what do I know

Not weird to stall, but rare. Either Gloria or Dianne, I don't remeber which, back in the 80's sat off Cape Fear for several days before finally moving ashore.

[storms in NC]

[Not weird to stall, but rare. Either Gloria or Dianne, I don't remeber which, back in the 80's sat off Cape Fear for several days before finally moving ashore.]

Cape Fear seem to draw Hurricanes into it.

[Bane]

well if you believe the GFS Hanna will sit in the bahamas for 4 days before heading for the carolinas

I dont really believe anything the models are doing after 3 days now and Im not sure I even trust the 3 day forecast.. this is a complicated situation and im wondering if the models are picking up on Hannas weird interaction with the ULL.. maybe Im wrong I just find it weird for a storm to stall for 4 days and not move.. but what do I know

Not weird to stall, but rare. Either Gloria or Dianne, I don't remeber which, back in the 80's sat off Cape Fear for several days before finally moving ashore.

it was Diana, and the stall was a blessing as she weakened while sitting in place.

[capepoint]

[Not weird to stall, but rare. Either Gloria or Dianne, I don't remeber which, back in the 80's sat off Cape Fear for several days before finally moving ashore.]

Cape Fear seem to draw Hurricanes into it.

Yeah, and you know what we get out of it up here.......I like the Hatteras storms MUCH better.....