ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BROAD MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
23W-26W. A SIMILAR SMALLER AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE LOW FROM 13N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER AN AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 10N22W TO 8N39W. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Praxus]

edit n/m

[HURAKAN]

Re-issued! Nothing new.



I don't expect development in the next 24 hours as the system continues to be disorganized and convection is limited and shallow.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 302359
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER WESTERN CUBA ABOUT 65
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA......AND ON TROPICAL STORM
HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[bvigal]

OK 97 now in SSD floater range, and up on floater 4
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float4.html

[HURAKAN]

Nothing new.

[Thunder44]

I guess people have lost interest in this system with the lack of organization:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[captain east]

It's back to red...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 311145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[Vortex]

Euro,Canadian,Ukmet, and Nogaps all bring 97 almost due west to a position very near the northern Lesser Antilles in about 5-6 days. Interesting to notice the consistency in these models and if the trends will continue.

[HURAKAN]

Still development is not in the near future (24 hours or less).

[Bane]

i can see what appears to be a good little swirl just south of the convection on the sw side of the system.

[RL3AO]

If it can get any convection over the LLC, it would easily be upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

It's certainly looking better than yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Agree,convection trying to wrap around the low center.24 hours or less?

[Vortex]

All indications are 97 will be near or just north of Puerto Rico in about 6-7 days. At that time GFS has a ridge parked off the SE coast of the US. Looks like we have a long-tracker.

[Vortex]

One thing to note this has a large circulation/envelope.

[cycloneye]

This Quicscat pass was from this morning around 4:00 AM EDT but showed at that time a good looking LLC.

[Vortex]

12 CMC
due west and stronger over or just norht of the Leewards/PR



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Its probably got the LLC just not the decent sustained convection near the center and given how close TS status the NHC seemto want depressions this season don't expect anything yet.

If this take a while to strengthen, this could be yet another Caribbean threat...