ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[tolakram]

The IR is starting to look more impressive on this storm but the WV is still lackluster at best. The eye has definately cleared though. The eyewall is still quite ragged though, anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

Recon is flying right now, getting ready for another center pass.

[6SpeedTA95]

I think we're about to see Gustav do what he did right before he hit Cuba, not only is he getting better organized but the overall size of the storm is increasing.

Yep the eye is really clearing out now, but the east side still remains weak. I wonder why this is so reluctant to shift the convection to the east side.

The east side of the storm really isn't over the currently loop like the west side of the storm. Pull up google earth and look at the continental shelf, she's riding the shelf and the loop current right on the edge. That shallower water on the east side has much less total heat potential, couple that with the environment not being perfect for development and you have a storm that is struggling a bit. But as it pushes further west it will get over deeper waters and the storm will probably gain a little strength in the coming hours.

[mvtrucking]

I think we're about to see Gustav do what he did right before he hit Cuba, not only is he getting better organized but the overall size of the storm is increasing.

Yep the eye is really clearing out now, but the east side still remains weak. I wonder why this is so reluctant to shift the convection to the east side.

Patience CWG, I'm sure it will work it's way to the east side..Seriously though, what do you think it will do over the course of say 24hrs?

[Portastorm]

I loathe the "it's moving west! it's moving east!" posts, so please forgive me ... but it sure seems like the overall cloud shield of Gustav is taking on more of a western component.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Cape Verde]

I think we're kidding ourselves if we think Louisiana, and especially New Orleans, is going to come out of this okay.

The eye may not go over New Orleans, but it's a pretty good bet that the northeast quadrant of Gustav will. While that won't blow the lake into the city (just the opposite), it's still going to bring the sea surge. Slidell and Mandeville will not be good places to be as they're on the north side of the lake.

This is going to be a multi-billion dollar disaster and some people will lose their lives. I am a little heartened that Louisiana is apparently taking this far more seriously than they did Katrina.

[PTPatrick]

IMHO...WILL restrengthen, just not rapidly and most likely not cat 5 or upper end 4. He is really getting fat and its hard for storms for get fat and strong at the same time I think. He needs to get big, stabilize, then we will see pressure drop. And mind you, the water of LA is not COLD, its just not a loop current. It can still suppose a mid to high end cat 3, possibly even a low cat 4, esp the way this puppy is moving. I am not saying he hasnt leveled off, but I am saying a lot can happen in this afternoon.

[6SpeedTA95]

I think we're about to see Gustav do what he did right before he hit Cuba, not only is he getting better organized but the overall size of the storm is increasing.

Yep the eye is really clearing out now, but the east side still remains weak. I wonder why this is so reluctant to shift the convection to the east side.

Patience CWG, I'm sure it will work it's way to the east side..Seriously though, what do you think it will do over the course of say 24hrs?

I think we'll see it intensify to a solid 4 and then fall back off to a strong 2 at landfall.

[AZRainman]

Date : 31 AUG 2008 Time : 124500 UTC

[HouTXmetro]

I loathe the "it's moving west! it's moving east!" posts, so please forgive me ... but it sure seems like the overall cloud shield of Gustav is taking on more of a western component.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

High Pressure has finally bridged in from Bermuda to the Ohio Valley. I think Gustav will start movin more directly NW now unlike yesterday when there was a weakness.

[HURAKAN]

134900 2503N 08542W 6964 02829 9574 +188 +139 185010 012 015 000 00

extrapolated 957 mb

[Jason_B]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

High Pressure has finally bridged in from Bermuda to the Ohio Valley. I think Gustav will start movin more directly NW now unlike yesterday when there was a weakness.

He's been moving directly NW since late yesterday.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks to me like the eye is wrapping quite well:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[CronkPSU]

it never really ramped up on the east side yesterday either until it hit cat 4...was almost always a bit lopsided

[superfly]

This is a 80 kts cat 1 storm right now, supported with 2 recon passes. The pressure is also rising a little.

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks to me like the eye is wrapping quite well:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

It does indeed look like the eye is firming up and it is moving more directly over the loop current and will continue to do so for several hours. That eye firmed up fairly quick in just 2 hours time. WV is still mediocre even on the latest frame.

[HouTXmetro]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

High Pressure has finally bridged in from Bermuda to the Ohio Valley. I think Gustav will start movin more directly NW now unlike yesterday when there was a weakness.

He's been moving directly NW since late yesterday.

I'll be lookin for WNW jogs today. Yesterday it was mainly NNW jogs.

[PTPatrick]

I think the Hurricane center would beg to differ...although I can see why one would want to believe that

[dhweather]

good lord, the NBC affiliate in NOLA, the TV MET, she was just downplaying Gus "it's not as impressive as it was".

Gee, thanks for the help.

Now she is at least talking 20ft storm surge.

[Just Joshing You]

The NHC would be complete morons to downgrade this to a Category 1.. even a Category 2. It will just rebound, and it will give people a false sense of security.

[Derek Ortt]

this looks like a cat 2 now. Pressures are rising. I still expect this to re-intensify and strike as a 3