ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BigB0882]

134900 2503N 08542W 6964 02829 9574 +188 +139 185010 012 015 000 00

extrapolated 957 mb

Down 3 from the 960 NHC shows. Someone just posted pressure is on the rise though. I don't know what to believe. lol

[superfly]

134900 2503N 08542W 6964 02829 9574 +188 +139 185010 012 015 000 00

extrapolated 957 mb

Down 3 from the 960 NHC shows. Someone just posted pressure is on the rise though. I don't know what to believe. lol

The last pass was 955, the extrap from the plane has been consistently lower than the vortex pressure.

[dixiebreeze]

I agree Derek and I also think folks in the Panhandle should be on their toes. It appears Gustav's eye is slightly east of the forecast track right now.

[6SpeedTA95]

this looks like a cat 2 now. Pressures are rising. I still expect this to re-intensify and strike as a 3

Do you feel the storm surge will be 20ft+ with this storm? Or will NO get some luck and perhaps see 12 to 15?

[cpdaman]

Date : 31 AUG 2008 Time : 124500 UTC

thanks for the image

given his position now (1345 utc) and the position of loop ....his eastern side will be going over those deep warm water over the next several hours (imo < 6). his eastern cdo should explode any time now IMO

[Derek Ortt]

also, the eye is not wrapping up at all. This is quite disorganized in comparison to yesterday

I do not expect the eye to wrap up much. It just is not dynamically possible with the current shear. We still have about 15KT of southerly shear. Convection is downshear and left of the shear vector

See Black et al. (2002) for more information on this

[dwg71]

it will miss the next forecast point to the east slightly. the forward speed is going to be NOLA's worst enemy. it could be on land a little over 24 hours from now.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm thinking about 15 feet for the surge in louisiana and 10-15 in Mississippi

[Jason_B]

I agree Derek and I also think folks in the Panhandle should be on their toes. It appears Gustav's eye is slightly east of the forecast track right now.

No it's not and folks in the panhandle have nothing to worry about unless you live on the beach or along the bay for some surge possibly.

[Smurfwicked]

I just heard a local met, channel 12 say something about him thinking it'll go further west but he said you've got to go with with what NHC says. I've been wondering about the south turn the models are showing, how sure can we be that the turn will not come before landfall if it even takes place?

Gustav certainly looks better to me than he did 2 hours ago, I'm also noticing that those colder cloud tops are making its way to the southern side and not just the western side. I have to agree with whoever posted that about him edging the deeper waters.

Is all the development problems now (not 6 hours from now in cooler waters) due to the southern shear?

[perk]

I loathe the "it's moving west! it's moving east!" posts, so please forgive me ... but it sure seems like the overall cloud shield of Gustav is taking on more of a western component.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Portastorm you are right east or west does'nt matter now. The NHC has confidence in their forecast into Louisiana.

[Sanibel]

Extrapolated track from Isla Juventude to present position is right over the top of New Orleans. Take a straight edge and see for yourself.

That US High better kick in.

[Tom8]

what about landfall time ?

they are still saying monday but I see sunday .

what you think about this ?

[AZRainman]

[ColdFusion]

Wait, was that recent post true? Recon can only find winds supporting a Cat 1 storm? Really?

[dhweather]

I'm thinking about 15 feet for the surge in louisiana and 10-15 in Mississippi

I'd agree with that Derek - given the forward speed of the storm, there simply won't be the amount of time to build water up like in Katrina.

Now, it Gus gets back to 4/5 strength, then 20+ is likely.

Regardless, if you are in the warning area, you need to evacuate.

[RL3AO]

The center is within a few miles of the 5am track according to recon.

[Blown Away]

Gus didn't take much advantage of those really warm waters and has moved NW of them, maybe he won't intensify much more before landfall. Let's hope.

[Downdraft]

Are we all looking at the same storm? I'm looking at a visible right now that shows improved outflow to the south and a redeveloping eye. Southeast quadrant doesn't look that good but it's well ventilated to the north. Anyone downplaying this storm right now is making a pretty serious mistake.

[tolakram]

Not in great shape and stepping though the frames, while the convection is slowly increasing, it's nothing impressive.