ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

this looks like a cat 2 now. Pressures are rising. I still expect this to re-intensify and strike as a 3

Do you feel the storm surge will be 20ft+ with this storm? Or will NO get some luck and perhaps see 12 to 15?

Recon finding Cat 1-2, maybe 90-100 mph winds. May not reach Cat 3 by landfall.

[CrazyC83]

One thing I do think is that the best track will be adjusted downwards at 0000Z (110 kt IMO) and at 0600Z (100 kt IMO). Land interaction definitely weakened the storm, but it seems to be re-organizing. I'd expect the pressure to drop before the winds do.

[tolakram]

1500Z

[Hurricaneman13]

The NHC still says this a Cat 3 with 120 mph. It appears to be trying to get its act to together, though. There is an eye that is clearly visible on IR.

[HouTXmetro]

A few minutes ago there was a news report that additional mandatory evacuations had been ordered for SE Texas along the coast, which is completely puzzling to me, since all hurricane watches for Texas have been dropped.

Yeah I hear Hardin County Texas now has mandatory evacuations, but where are you seeing that warnings have been dropped? I see the same TS Warnings & Hurricane Watches for southeast Texas that have been up all morning.

They are in the cone of uncertainty, better to be safe then sorry. I will also note, per the latest steering currents the High from Bermuda to Ohio Valley has bridged in. The latest models are still showing landfall just east of Vermillion Bay but any deviation to the W could put points further W such as SW/LA at risk. One model, NGFDL shows this.

[SoupBone]

this looks like a cat 2 now. Pressures are rising. I still expect this to re-intensify and strike as a 3

Do you feel the storm surge will be 20ft+ with this storm? Or will NO get some luck and perhaps see 12 to 15?

Recon finding Cat 1-2, maybe 90-100 mph winds. May not reach Cat 3 by landfall.

Not that I doubt you but can you post or link to this evidence? I cannot find it. Thanks...

[cpdaman]

The NHC still says this a Cat 3 with 120 mph. It appears to be trying to get its act to together, though. There is an eye that is clearly visible on IR.

yup give this 6 more hours over the north part of loop current (that east side just entered) , and if it isn't showing improvement on recon by then , i will be very pleasently surprised.

[CrazyC83]

The NHC still says this a Cat 3 with 120 mph. It appears to be trying to get its act to together, though. There is an eye that is clearly visible on IR.

That is probably a bit generous in my opinion. I'd say it is about 95 kt right now.

[CrazyC83]

One storm this is reminding me of is Hurricane Dennis...

[Jason_B]

this looks like a cat 2 now. Pressures are rising. I still expect this to re-intensify and strike as a 3

Do you feel the storm surge will be 20ft+ with this storm? Or will NO get some luck and perhaps see 12 to 15?

Recon finding Cat 1-2, maybe 90-100 mph winds. May not reach Cat 3 by landfall.

I'm sure that's the case now but if it continues to get better organized the winds are going to go up...really doubt anything less than a 3 at landfall.

[rockyman]

As a reminder...NHC is still predicting Cat 4 strength at or just before landfall. Here's what a Cat 4 can do:

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

[tolakram]

Not that I doubt you but can you post or link to this evidence? I cannot find it. Thanks...

It's all there in the Gustav recon thread SoupBones.

[superfly]

Recon finding Cat 1-2, maybe 90-100 mph winds. May not reach Cat 3 by landfall.

Not that I doubt you but can you post or link to this evidence? I cannot find it. Thanks...

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102749&start=1060

[Derek Ortt]

Not that I doubt you but can you post or link to this evidence? I cannot find it. Thanks...

check the recon thread

[SoupBone]

Is it possible there was something malfunctioning to get the reading. This is all a bit odd for sure.

EDIT: Thanks Derek...

[RL3AO]

Not that I doubt you but can you post or link to this evidence? I cannot find it. Thanks...
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102749&start=1060

His evidence is in that thread.

[bvigal]

buoy reading from 225m west of Naples, 1349z
Winds 46.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 58.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 30.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 133 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.38 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.11 in ( Falling Rapidly )

[superfly]

I understand why NHC kept the winds so high for the public interest, but there's no evidence supporting anything near a cat 3 right now. I fully expect it to be downgraded to 80-85 kts in post-analysis.

[PTPatrick]

Not that the models really matter for intensity...but none of them showed this thing getting much more than a cat 3....HWRF had been showing a cat 2.

[Hurricaneman13]

If they downgraded this to a Cat 1, some people may not prepare for the worst. This could probably strengthen, and I think this is still a Cat 3 maybe strong Cat 2 IMO. It looks like the eye is becoming better defined like something you would find in a Cat 3 or above IMO.