ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

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tpr1967
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1481 Postby tpr1967 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:29 am

At 72 hrs 500mb ridge is over kentucky. Closed mid-upper level low east of mid atlantic states.Causes weakness at mid-upper levels over west atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1482 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:31 am

Looking at Vis, i think the center is becoming elongated, and could possibly be reforming bit further to the SW toward the growing convection near the SE Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1483 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:36 am

tpr1967 wrote:At 72 hrs 500mb ridge is over kentucky. Closed mid-upper level low east of mid atlantic states.Causes weakness at mid-upper levels over west atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif


Yup, that is why the GFS takes it N. However, not sure i buy the location of Hanna at 72 hours. She has been moving steady W/NW, and may be further to the W than that model shows. If this is a the case, I see strong N shear, and a stalled system for a while, like the NHC track implied at 5am.

One notable item, is that Hanna has been consistently left of track over the last few days, and has been moving faster recently than forecast. Yesterday, she was moving 5-10 mph, and a slowing was forecast. However, today she has moved W/NW at 10-15 mph.

Overall, i think this one will be weak, and more West than the globals are showing. Just my opinion.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1484 Postby tpr1967 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:40 am

I agree Emmett on a weaker system. Maybe slowly moving west. After steering at upper levels breaks down.
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#1485 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:42 am

Based on the discussion, there is a case for calling it Subtropical Storm Hanna right now...
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Re:

#1486 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:47 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the discussion, there is a case for calling it Subtropical Storm Hanna right now...


The RECON will measure the temperature but I think it's still tropical. Looking like a subtropical system doesn't mean it's subtropical.
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Re:

#1487 Postby Philly12 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:48 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the discussion, there is a case for calling it Subtropical Storm Hanna right now...


Based on the Sat, there is a case for no longer calling it Hanna.
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#1488 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:52 am

Looks like NHC similar to the recent models, turning N prior to reaching FL:

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1489 Postby RevDodd » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:53 am

captain east wrote:Can someone tell my why all the models are now pointing towards the Carolina's?


There's a basic explanation in the local paper this morning...from their "Weather Permitting" Blog.


"...The major models show troughs developing which will erode the ridge. Usually in the summer this is a good thing, because it helps break up heat waves.

In this case, it might not be so good. The high pressure eventually should re-establish itself out in the Atlantic, forming what is called a Bermuda High. This is our typical summer pattern: A high out in the ocean that creates a warm, southeastern flow for the Carolinas.

Alas, it also can steer any tropical weather our way as well. And right now, there's a system off the Bahamas we'd just as soon not want to meet.

Now Hanna's had a rough time down in the islands. She's been smacked around by shearing winds, which literally rip the convection off one side of the storm. In fact, some forecasters say she may not even survive.

IF (big if) Hanna survives the next 3 days, the same forces that move our high pressure ridge also ease the shearing. This puts Hanna (1) in a great recovery environment (nice warm water and gentle upper level winds and (2) gives her a clear path to the Southeastern coast. Where exactly depends on her location when the shear eases up.

We'll keep tabs on Hanna. For now, say a quick prayer for the folks in front of Gustav....just in case they need to return the favor!"

Hope that helps!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1490 Postby GreenSky » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:54 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
tpr1967 wrote:I have been thinking(thats scary)that a weaker system steered by the lower level winds would have a chance of continuing slowly westward and not stall. Considering most of the weakness is 500mb to 200mb,With some weaking at the lower levels.


ok my question is how does the ridge steer gustav off to the west just before landfall but steer hanna off the the north?



I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...
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#1491 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:54 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1492 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:57 am

NHC now calling for hanna to be a hurricane by 96-hour forecast point.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1493 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:58 am

GreenSky wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
tpr1967 wrote:I have been thinking(thats scary)that a weaker system steered by the lower level winds would have a chance of continuing slowly westward and not stall. Considering most of the weakness is 500mb to 200mb,With some weaking at the lower levels.


ok my question is how does the ridge steer gustav off to the west just before landfall but steer hanna off the the north?



I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...


Hurricane shield? You're kidding right?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1494 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:59 am

so the fuzzy cone around most of florida in the advisory map is the protective shield.....learned something new!!!

;p

GreenSky wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
tpr1967 wrote:I have been thinking(thats scary)that a weaker system steered by the lower level winds would have a chance of continuing slowly westward and not stall. Considering most of the weakness is 500mb to 200mb,With some weaking at the lower levels.


ok my question is how does the ridge steer gustav off to the west just before landfall but steer hanna off the the north?



I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...
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#1495 Postby Trader Ron » Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:59 am

The latest track looks farther West.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1496 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:01 am

hope it's not a trend...further to the west
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1497 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:03 am

Excerpt from latest discussion from NHC...interesting how they have now made mention of this in the last 2 advisory discussions...

HOWEVER...THE UKMET MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SUFFICIENTLY FAR WEST...AND
TO THE NORTH OF HANNA...TO RESULT IN MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SINCE
THIS IS A NORMALLY GOOD PERFORMING MODEL...IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE
IGNORED
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1498 Postby lbvbl » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:07 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:hope it's not a trend...further to the west


I noticed that too.. the last track seemeed to take it into the carolinas, and now it seems to go into GA. I think it could possibly shift further west taking the storm into north FL.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1499 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:09 am

jinftl wrote:Excerpt from latest discussion from NHC...interesting how they have now made mention of this in the last 2 advisory discussions...

HOWEVER...THE UKMET MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SUFFICIENTLY FAR WEST...AND
TO THE NORTH OF HANNA...TO RESULT IN MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SINCE
THIS IS A NORMALLY GOOD PERFORMING MODEL...IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE
IGNORED


very good observation..........from reading the rest of the discussion they have even less confidence in intensity and i think they are setting themselves up to bring it down a bit more in the short term......... 55mph sustained ? where oh where 45 sounds bout right

and also from discussion and visible observation hanna is moving rather briskly west...

and ULL is still literally on top of her (center of ULL just slightly to the SW of her LLC) but still mostly over her
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1500 Postby GreenSky » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:11 am

I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...[/quote]

Hurricane shield? You're kidding right?[/quote]

I was being sarcastic when I said "hurricane shield"...however the frequency of long-tracking Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in Florida is pretty low compared to that of the Carolinas...and usually storms that do affect Florida from the east end up getting sheared to pieces (like Frances) or weakened from land interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (like Fay did)....Texas/Louisiana and North Carolina have been taking the brunt of severe tropical cyclones in recent times leaving Florida to deal with mainly tropical storms and very few intense hurricanes (like Charley and Andrew, rare events separated by 15 years).

Louisiana has had so many major hurricanes in just a 5 to 8 year period: Lily, Katrina, Rita, and now Gustav.

I guess in this sense, Florida is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. It's just a matter of time before Florida (especially peninsula Florida...panhandle has higher frequency of storms like Ivan and Dennis) shares the hurricane statistics with North Carolina and TX/LA
Last edited by GreenSky on Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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