ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re:

#8261 Postby Category 5 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:51 am

Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad

Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad


That supports a cat 2 correct?
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8262 Postby Category 5 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:52 am

StormTracker wrote:FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!! :double:


Such irresponsible reporting is unacceptable. All this does is spread excess panic.
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Re: Re:

#8263 Postby tallywx » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:52 am

Category 5 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad

Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad


That supports a cat 2 correct?


From how long ago was that report?
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8264 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:53 am

StormTracker wrote:FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!! :double:



See this is what I mean. Did they back it up with why? How can they think that when even the NHC says a Cat 4? Bah.....I don't know any more. :double:
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attallaman

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8265 Postby attallaman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:54 am

The models seem to have shifted a good bit to the west now, my area seems to no longer be in the NHC's cone of uncertainty, hurricane warnings are still up for my area but you think they'll be dropped later today since I'm no longer inside of the NHC's cone of uncertainty?
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8266 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:54 am

My family is not going anywhere at all. They are staying here till it's over. I'm the one as a weather enthusiast looking for REAL data and not some of the media hype that I see. That's why all morning I've been trying to figure out how the Vortex Message looked so odd but the NHC was saying Cat 3. Guys if we can't be honest HERE then where? I see tons of people with disclaimers on there threads but yet some people still don't want to discuss the possibility that the NHC is just keeping people in check (which I understand). BUT here of all places we should have the honest truth and with data this shouldn't be that hard. Thanks again guys...


I have asked the mods for some action but I'll give my opinions here. There is a reason why the NHC is the best, they are forecasters with a lot of experience. There are a lot of armchair quarterbacks here that have no real experience in forecasting. You should only be listening to the NHC when it comes to this storm and your local national weather service. You'll discover quite quickly that while they may be wrong in the end they will provide you with the best advice.

Interpreting data from the hurricane hunters is useless unless you know what it might mean and how to use it. In 24 hours a storm is going to hit the coast and what it's doing right now is inconsequential to what it might be when it arrives tomorrow.

In short, with all due respect, you're a fool if you base evacuation plans on some poster here. False authority is rampant on message boards. Please consider your lives and your loved ones lives first. If it's not bad so what, you get to come back to a home.
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Re: Re:

#8267 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:55 am

tallywx wrote:
Category 5 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad

Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad


That supports a cat 2 correct?


From how long ago was that report?



The same recon you were adamantly discussing earlier.

Oops.
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Jason_B

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8268 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:55 am

Would be nice if we could talk about Gustav again, instead of criticizing the NHC.
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#8269 Postby Pebbles » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:56 am

Guys can you ease up on Tallywx just a tad. Way back when, we use to be able to discuss the facts on this board. Much of what he said about current conditions IS actual fact.

I think people forget this is a DISCUSSION forum and shouldn't be used as the end all be all for a source of information. The storm is obviously weakening. THIS is a fact that recon data is showing.

Does that mean it's weakening into nothing... no!
Does that mean this storm isn't still dangerous.. no!
Does that mean people should stop evacuating as advised.. NO!
Does that mean people should ignore the NHC and local officials ... absolutely not/NO!

I don't know when it became acceptable that this forum became an official source of info for people and thus no one can discuss facts for fear of causing people to 'change their plans' or ignore the officials.

Now I or others may or may not agree with everything Tally said but can there at least be a decent debate done nicely?
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8270 Postby Sabanic » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:56 am

attallaman wrote:The models seem to have shifted a good bit to the west now, my area seems to no longer be in the NHC's cone of uncertainty, hurricane warnings are still up for my area but you think they'll be dropped later today since I'm no longer inside of the NHC's cone of uncertainty?


I doubt it. We have been out of the cone since yesterday here, and are under a HW also. East side.
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Re: Re:

#8271 Postby feederband » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:57 am

tallywx wrote:
Category 5 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad

Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad


That supports a cat 2 correct?


From how long ago was that report?


I never seen a 91KT NE reading in the VDM'S
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8272 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:57 am

Attalaman....Biloxi will stay under a warning unti lthe storm is passed. I think They could possibly downgrade AL to a TS warning later today if the storm stays on track. At this point though, if the wind field expands and cat 3 is over NOLA...Biloxi and some of Jackson County could still get Hurricane force wind. The warning is for the effects not the center...and while NHC may think the center wont hit MS, that does not mean hurricane force winds will NOT.
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Re:

#8273 Postby debbiet » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:58 am

Pebbles wrote:Guys can you ease up on Tallywx just a tad. Way back when, we use to be able to discuss the facts on this board. Much of what he said about current conditions IS actual fact.

I think people forget this is a DISCUSSION forum and shouldn't be used as the end all be all for a source of information. The storm is obviously weakening. THIS is a fact that recon data is showing.

Does that mean it's weakening into nothing... no!
Does that mean this storm isn't still dangerous.. no!
Does that mean people should stop evacuating as advised.. NO!
Does that mean people should ignore the NHC and local officials ... absolutely not/NO!

I don't know when it became acceptable that this forum became an official source of info for people and thus no one can discuss facts for fear of causing people to 'change their plans' or ignore the officials.

Now I or others may or may not agree with everything Tally said but can there at least be a decent debate done nicely?


WELL SAID...BRAVO!
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8274 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:58 am

tolakram wrote:
My family is not going anywhere at all. They are staying here till it's over. I'm the one as a weather enthusiast looking for REAL data and not some of the media hype that I see. That's why all morning I've been trying to figure out how the Vortex Message looked so odd but the NHC was saying Cat 3. Guys if we can't be honest HERE then where? I see tons of people with disclaimers on there threads but yet some people still don't want to discuss the possibility that the NHC is just keeping people in check (which I understand). BUT here of all places we should have the honest truth and with data this shouldn't be that hard. Thanks again guys...


I have asked the mods for some action but I'll give my opinions here. There is a reason why the NHC is the best, they are forecasters with a lot of experience. There are a lot of armchair quarterbacks here that have no real experience in forecasting. You should only be listening to the NHC when it comes to this storm and your local national weather service. You'll discover quite quickly that while they may be wrong in the end they will provide you with the best advice.

Interpreting data from the hurricane hunters is useless unless you know what it might mean and how to use it. In 24 hours a storm is going to hit the coast and what it's doing right now is inconsequential to what it might be when it arrives tomorrow.

In short, with all due respect, you're a fool if you base evacuation plans on some poster here. False authority is rampant on message boards. Please consider your lives and your loved ones lives first. If it's not bad so what, you get to come back to a home.


Even IF they wanted to leave I would not allow it. We are all still taking it seriously as we were yesterday. Even the local New Orleans mets are talking about it weakening and seemed to indicate that this is better. No one has said things are good or that it's not going to be bad but they have sort of shifted from their gloom and doom talk of yesterday. I'm just trying to sort it all out right now. Again my family is not (nor were they ever) leaving I'm just enjoying the board but looking for TRUE info and no hype. Thanks again...
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8275 Postby superfly » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:59 am

Jason_B wrote:Would be nice if we could talk about Gustav again, instead of criticizing the NHC.

We ARE talking about Gustav and his current intensity.

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
tallywx wrote:From how long ago was that report?



The same recon you were adamantly discussing earlier.

Oops.

Yes and no. It was the same flight but it was 4-5 hours ago.

110430 2442N 08505W 6428 03532 9409 +125 +122 133083 103 083 005 03

The 91 kts is much more recent.

135400 2504N 08519W 6960 02944 9737 +144 +136 187090 091 069 000 00
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8276 Postby StormTracker » Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:00 am

Category 5 wrote:
StormTracker wrote:FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!! :double:


Such irresponsible reporting is unacceptable. All this does is spread excess panic.


And the reporter sounded so confident too! I couldn't even believe he was saying that!
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attallaman

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8277 Postby attallaman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:00 am

Sabanic wrote:
attallaman wrote:The models seem to have shifted a good bit to the west now, my area seems to no longer be in the NHC's cone of uncertainty, hurricane warnings are still up for my area but you think they'll be dropped later today since I'm no longer inside of the NHC's cone of uncertainty?


I doubt it. We have been out of the cone since yesterday here, and are under a HW also. East side.
Do you think I'll still receive some weather from this system now that it appears I am no longer in the NHC's cone of uncertainty?
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#8278 Postby feederband » Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:01 am

tallywx said; "Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city."

Thats what got me fired up...
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Jason_B

Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8279 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:01 am

PTPatrick wrote:Attalaman....Biloxi will stay under a warning unti lthe storm is passed. I think They could possibly downgrade AL to a TS warning later today if the storm stays on track. At this point though, if the wind field expands and cat 3 is over NOLA...Biloxi and some of Jackson County could still get Hurricane force wind. The warning is for the effects not the center...and while NHC may think the center wont hit MS, that does not mean hurricane force winds will NOT.
Unless it takes a WNW jog it's pretty much making a b-line to SE LA which would probably bring hurricane force winds to AL...even I was thinking a more western track but I have a feeling it's out running the ridge and that more western turn may not occur until after landfall. We'll see though.
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8280 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:01 am

Dry air is wrapped around to the south on WV.
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