Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad
Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad
That supports a cat 2 correct?
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Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad
Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad
StormTracker wrote:FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!!
StormTracker wrote:FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!!
My family is not going anywhere at all. They are staying here till it's over. I'm the one as a weather enthusiast looking for REAL data and not some of the media hype that I see. That's why all morning I've been trying to figure out how the Vortex Message looked so odd but the NHC was saying Cat 3. Guys if we can't be honest HERE then where? I see tons of people with disclaimers on there threads but yet some people still don't want to discuss the possibility that the NHC is just keeping people in check (which I understand). BUT here of all places we should have the honest truth and with data this shouldn't be that hard. Thanks again guys...
attallaman wrote:The models seem to have shifted a good bit to the west now, my area seems to no longer be in the NHC's cone of uncertainty, hurricane warnings are still up for my area but you think they'll be dropped later today since I'm no longer inside of the NHC's cone of uncertainty?
tallywx wrote:Category 5 wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:east quad, not north quad
Earlier, NOAA had 103KT in the NE quad
That supports a cat 2 correct?
From how long ago was that report?
Pebbles wrote:Guys can you ease up on Tallywx just a tad. Way back when, we use to be able to discuss the facts on this board. Much of what he said about current conditions IS actual fact.
I think people forget this is a DISCUSSION forum and shouldn't be used as the end all be all for a source of information. The storm is obviously weakening. THIS is a fact that recon data is showing.
Does that mean it's weakening into nothing... no!
Does that mean this storm isn't still dangerous.. no!
Does that mean people should stop evacuating as advised.. NO!
Does that mean people should ignore the NHC and local officials ... absolutely not/NO!
I don't know when it became acceptable that this forum became an official source of info for people and thus no one can discuss facts for fear of causing people to 'change their plans' or ignore the officials.
Now I or others may or may not agree with everything Tally said but can there at least be a decent debate done nicely?
tolakram wrote:My family is not going anywhere at all. They are staying here till it's over. I'm the one as a weather enthusiast looking for REAL data and not some of the media hype that I see. That's why all morning I've been trying to figure out how the Vortex Message looked so odd but the NHC was saying Cat 3. Guys if we can't be honest HERE then where? I see tons of people with disclaimers on there threads but yet some people still don't want to discuss the possibility that the NHC is just keeping people in check (which I understand). BUT here of all places we should have the honest truth and with data this shouldn't be that hard. Thanks again guys...
I have asked the mods for some action but I'll give my opinions here. There is a reason why the NHC is the best, they are forecasters with a lot of experience. There are a lot of armchair quarterbacks here that have no real experience in forecasting. You should only be listening to the NHC when it comes to this storm and your local national weather service. You'll discover quite quickly that while they may be wrong in the end they will provide you with the best advice.
Interpreting data from the hurricane hunters is useless unless you know what it might mean and how to use it. In 24 hours a storm is going to hit the coast and what it's doing right now is inconsequential to what it might be when it arrives tomorrow.
In short, with all due respect, you're a fool if you base evacuation plans on some poster here. False authority is rampant on message boards. Please consider your lives and your loved ones lives first. If it's not bad so what, you get to come back to a home.
Jason_B wrote:Would be nice if we could talk about Gustav again, instead of criticizing the NHC.
Weatherfreak000 wrote:tallywx wrote:From how long ago was that report?
The same recon you were adamantly discussing earlier.
Oops.
Category 5 wrote:StormTracker wrote:FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!!
Such irresponsible reporting is unacceptable. All this does is spread excess panic.
Do you think I'll still receive some weather from this system now that it appears I am no longer in the NHC's cone of uncertainty?Sabanic wrote:attallaman wrote:The models seem to have shifted a good bit to the west now, my area seems to no longer be in the NHC's cone of uncertainty, hurricane warnings are still up for my area but you think they'll be dropped later today since I'm no longer inside of the NHC's cone of uncertainty?
I doubt it. We have been out of the cone since yesterday here, and are under a HW also. East side.
Unless it takes a WNW jog it's pretty much making a b-line to SE LA which would probably bring hurricane force winds to AL...even I was thinking a more western track but I have a feeling it's out running the ridge and that more western turn may not occur until after landfall. We'll see though.PTPatrick wrote:Attalaman....Biloxi will stay under a warning unti lthe storm is passed. I think They could possibly downgrade AL to a TS warning later today if the storm stays on track. At this point though, if the wind field expands and cat 3 is over NOLA...Biloxi and some of Jackson County could still get Hurricane force wind. The warning is for the effects not the center...and while NHC may think the center wont hit MS, that does not mean hurricane force winds will NOT.
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