ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

That 103 kt at FL was at 12,000 feet, which would be about 96-100 kt at the surface.

[PTPatrick]

Seems like outflow on the south is getting a little better and the disappearance of the "eye" could be the center has disappeared into the convection? Not saying its "strengthening" but just an observation. If anybody else sees something else on thos loop that means weakening though I would love to hear it, as I would cheer gustav on to weaken...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Sabanic]

The models seem to have shifted a good bit to the west now, my area seems to no longer be in the NHC's cone of uncertainty, hurricane warnings are still up for my area but you think they'll be dropped later today since I'm no longer inside of the NHC's cone of uncertainty?

I doubt it. We have been out of the cone since yesterday here, and are under a HW also. East side.

Do you think I'll still receive some weather from this system now that it appears I am no longer in the NHC's cone of uncertainty?

If it makes landfall as projected, or any slight bit east of the you can expect strong TS winds, and possibly some Hurricane force gusts at least, Surge also, and being on the east side the squalls from the feeder bands can be very bad. Not trying to sound like a doomsday forecast for you, but you will probably get some very, very nasty weather.

[HURAKAN]

[Jason_B]

Dry air is wrapped around to the south on WV.

Thanks for the link.

[attallaman]

FOX News(national feed, i think)reporting here in Miami that all of the ingredients have been put into the pot & the recipe for a CAT 5 is cooking!!!

Such irresponsible reporting is unacceptable. All this does is spread excess panic.

And the reporter sounded so confident too! I couldn't even believe he was saying that!

Fox News had a correspondent reporting live from Biloxi's beaches yesterday and under the correspondent was the caption, "Biloxi, MS is getting ready for a direct hit from Gustav". That was irresponsible reporting late yesterday.

[PTPatrick]

I would have thourgh true dry air intrusion would errode the west side...With Gus the west side is all he's got going for him.

[tallywx]

tallywx said; "Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city."

Thats what got me fired up...

Perhaps I should've stated that a bit more judiciously. But it's a fact that some people who live in areas in which they definitely should evacuate for a cat 4-5 would have a different cost/benefit decision analysis if they had the full slate of cold/hard facts at their disposal, even assuming they aren't overly risk averse.

But let's just forget that debate right now and talk about the hard numbers about this storm right now instead of debating the merits of what NHC should do .

[JtSmarts]

Gustav kind of reminds me of how Rita looked at landfall. She had lost her eye on infrared by the time she made landfall, but her convection was a bit stronger.

[soonertwister]

Data buoy 42003 was about 50 nautical miles NE of Gustav when the last hourly readings were made. Winds were 52.4 kt gusting to 68, with a wave height of 34.4 ft. Pressure was 29.30 with a pressure tendency of -0.13.

That's 34.4 is a number to pay some attention to. I bet the next hourly doesn't doesn't make it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

[JTD]

In my opinion, Gustav is likely to be similar to Hurricane Dennis of 2005 in terms of overall damage and impact to the gulf coast. Absolutely stunned at how horrible it looks on satelite and infrared imaging. I note the increase in the pressure to 962 as well.

[tallywx]

Data buoy 42003 was about 50 nautical miles NE of Gustav when the last hourly readings were made. Winds were 52.4 kt gusting to 68, with a wave height of 34.4 ft. Pressure was 29.30 with a pressure tendency of -0.13.

That's 34.4 is a number to pay some attention to. I bet the next hourly doesn't doesn't make it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Note that 50 nautical miles NE of Gustav is about where New Orleans will be relative to Gustav. So assuming it keeps the same intensity (which it may not), then New Orleans can expect about the same in terms of wind conditions.

[Just Joshing You]

tallywx said; "Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city."

Thats what got me fired up...

Perhaps I should've stated that a bit more judiciously. But it's a fact that some people who live in areas in which they definitely should evacuate for a cat 4-5 would have a different cost/benefit decision analysis if they had the full slate of cold/hard facts at their disposal, even assuming they aren't overly risk averse.

But let's just forget that debate right now and talk about the hard numbers about this storm right now instead of debating the merits of what NHC should do .

When is a moderator going to warn this kid? Even after it was stated 2 pages ago to STOP this discussion, he keeps bringing it up. Gustav is a Category 3 Hurricane, and if they downgraded it, it would obviously give a false sense of security. Intensity is forecasted to be a mid-range category 4 at landfall, and lowering the intensity to 80 KT at this time would mean that the mandatory evacuations are no longer required, as Mandatory evacs. were only issued for Category 3 or higher from 60 hours out.

[JtSmarts]

In my opinion, Gustav is likely to be similar to Hurricane Dennis of 2005 in terms of overall damage and impact to the gulf coast. Absolutely stunned at how horrible it looks on satelite and infrared imaging. I note the increase in the pressure to 962 as well.

Here is a picture of Dennis at landfall for comparison's sake.

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/1221 ... 005191.jpg

[Portastorm]

Data buoy 42003 was about 50 nautical miles NE of Gustav when the last hourly readings were made. Winds were 52.4 kt gusting to 68, with a wave height of 34.4 ft. Pressure was 29.30 with a pressure tendency of -0.13.

That's 34.4 is a number to pay some attention to. I bet the next hourly doesn't doesn't make it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Too bad we don't have webcams on some of those buoys, eh? I bet that would be some sight right about now!

[PTPatrick]

I have to disagree...This storm is big, Dennis was itty bitty almost like CHARLEY. That alone spells more damage. Not to mention Dennis hit a NON surge prone area of the coast. This will make Dennis look like a cake walk, even if it comes in as a low end cat 2

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

would nee dto closely look at recon info, but maybe a secondary eyewall also formed?

[HURAKAN]

My family just spoke to my relatives in Cuba and everyone is OK. They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage. I think Charley handled that in 2004. The Cuban government is saying that they expect electricity to be back between 25 to 30 days.

[SoupBone]

Guys i want to be very clear about this. Do not censor anyone based on my questions. I'm watching just like you guys are and I want to discuss this storm. I am not making decisions based on what I read nor have I ever done that. I'm a calculated person and I make decisions based on logic, not emotion. So please keep the info flowing and thanks again....

[JTD]

tallywx said; "Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city."

Thats what got me fired up...

Perhaps I should've stated that a bit more judiciously. But it's a fact that some people who live in areas in which they definitely should evacuate for a cat 4-5 would have a different cost/benefit decision analysis if they had the full slate of cold/hard facts at their disposal, even assuming they aren't overly risk averse.

But let's just forget that debate right now and talk about the hard numbers about this storm right now instead of debating the merits of what NHC should do .

When is a moderator going to warn this kid? Even after it was stated 2 pages ago to STOP this discussion, he keeps bringing it up. Gustav is a Category 3 Hurricane, and if they downgraded it, it would obviously give a false sense of security. Intensity is forecasted to be a mid-range category 4 at landfall, and lowering the intensity to 80 KT at this time would mean that the mandatory evacuations are no longer required, as Mandatory evacs. were only issued for Category 3 or higher from 60 hours out.

Do you honestly believe this is ever going to reach cat 4 again? I mean look at the thing.