ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Jinkers]

hope it's not a trend...further to the west

I'm still hoping it curves NE.

[cpdaman]

I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...

Hurricane shield? You're kidding right?[/quote]

I was being sarcastic when I said "hurricane shield"...however the frequency of long-tracking Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in Florida is pretty low compared to that of the Carolinas...and usually storms that do affect Florida from the east end up getting sheared to pieces (like Frances) or weakened from land interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (like Fay did)....Texas/Louisiana and North Carolina have been taking the brunt of severe tropical cyclones in recent times leaving Florida to deal with mainly tropical storms and very few intense hurricanes (like Charley and Andrew, rare events separated by 15 years).

Louisiana has had so many major hurricanes in just a 5 to 8 year period: Lily, Katrina, Rita, and now Gustav.

I guess in this sense, Florida is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. It's just a matter of time before Florida (especially peninsula Florida...panhandle has higher frequency of storms like Ivan and Dennis) shares the hurricane statistics with North Carolina and TX/LA[/quote]






how bout wilma, jeanne, charley i.e major major major ..........peninsula has had more than it's fair share lately and certainly more than NC lately, JB was out of his mind when he made that comment......and don't count on gustav being a major to hit (thankfully!!) ......just yet.

[cpdaman]

LLC gives the appearance to me of being elongated NW-SE on visible loop

anyone see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

or maybe that's an eddy i see at 24.2 69.7 ? nah

will be interesting to see if there is a wind direction change in this bouy in about 45 minutes (Next update)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[storms in NC]

We have been very Lucky here in NC. I think only 2 hurricanes since Floyd in 1999. We here WILM had none since Floyd. So is our time up? The 2 after Floyd was up around Morehead City and up.

We Here could use the rain. We see a storm coming and you can watch it go around us or split and we get no rain. When the left overs of Fay came though Where I live only got 3/10th of rain you have read what other had around us.

So if Nanna makes it and is only a TS I will take the rain. so come on up to see me Nanna. Now we know She will stay away everyone.LOL

But right now She Look bad. Needs a face lift badly

[tpr1967]

I see that to. When tpc gave out there coordinates at 11:00 i said that far south. I also see the eddy up near 24.0n

[GreenSky]

I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...

Hurricane shield? You're kidding right?

I was being sarcastic when I said "hurricane shield"...however the frequency of long-tracking Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in Florida is pretty low compared to that of the Carolinas...and usually storms that do affect Florida from the east end up getting sheared to pieces (like Frances) or weakened from land interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (like Fay did)....Texas/Louisiana and North Carolina have been taking the brunt of severe tropical cyclones in recent times leaving Florida to deal with mainly tropical storms and very few intense hurricanes (like Charley and Andrew, rare events separated by 15 years).

Louisiana has had so many major hurricanes in just a 5 to 8 year period: Lily, Katrina, Rita, and now Gustav.

I guess in this sense, Florida is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. It's just a matter of time before Florida (especially peninsula Florida...panhandle has higher frequency of storms like Ivan and Dennis) shares the hurricane statistics with North Carolina and TX/LA[/quote]






how bout wilma, jeanne, charley i.e major major major ..........peninsula has had more than it's fair share lately and certainly more than NC lately, JB was out of his mind when he made that comment......and don't count on gustav being a major to hit (thankfully!!) ......just yet.[/quote]

Well Wilma was not a major hurricane when it hit Florida. Now I believe in the NHC records it is listed as category 2 and some speculate it might have just been a borderline cat 2/cat 1.

Whatever, I don't wanna get off topic. I just thought I would make these observations.

I do believe that Hanna has a better chance of hitting Florida then the Carolinas given how early it is in the season. This time of year we can expect strong subtropical ridges and fewer troughs. It's going to be well in the 80's in upstate NY all next week in fact.

[jinftl]

This is a hanna discussion....not the place for a broad discussion on beliefs on storms of the past and geography.

If anyone wants to take the bait that is being dangled, start another thread please. There are so much more interesting things going on real time in the tropics right now...hence the 'active storms thread'.

I second that question! I guess my only explanation is that there is a "hurricane shield" around Florida...

Hurricane shield? You're kidding right?

I was being sarcastic when I said "hurricane shield"...however the frequency of long-tracking Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in Florida is pretty low compared to that of the Carolinas...and usually storms that do affect Florida from the east end up getting sheared to pieces (like Frances) or weakened from land interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico (like Fay did)....Texas/Louisiana and North Carolina have been taking the brunt of severe tropical cyclones in recent times leaving Florida to deal with mainly tropical storms and very few intense hurricanes (like Charley and Andrew, rare events separated by 15 years).

Louisiana has had so many major hurricanes in just a 5 to 8 year period: Lily, Katrina, Rita, and now Gustav.

I guess in this sense, Florida is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. It's just a matter of time before Florida (especially peninsula Florida...panhandle has higher frequency of storms like Ivan and Dennis) shares the hurricane statistics with North Carolina and TX/LA[/quote]






how bout wilma, jeanne, charley i.e major major major ..........peninsula has had more than it's fair share lately and certainly more than NC lately, JB was out of his mind when he made that comment......and don't count on gustav being a major to hit (thankfully!!) ......just yet.[/quote]

[storms in NC]

[I do believe that Hanna has a better chance of hitting Florida then the Carolinas given how early it is in the season. This time of year we can expect strong subtropical ridges and fewer troughs. It's going to be well in the 80's in upstate NY all next week in fact.]

This is the time of the year NC get Storms.
From now till Oct

[Philly12]

Looking at the latest models there really is a lot of spread. There are 5 globals; the GFS, EURO, UKM, NOGAPS, & CMC and the hurricane models (GFDL & HWRF) that are run off the GFS and typically follow suit with the GFS. The spread in the globals is significant.

The GFS and associated hurricane models show essentially NC area
The EURO shows Hanna skirting east coast FL (perhaps a landfall east central FL) with GA landfall
The UKM shows Cuba to SFL landfall
the NOGAPS shows GA - SCA
The CMC shows SFL

When will the globals align??? That is the question......

[RL3AO]

Recon shows the enter to be about 50 miles WNW of the 11am position.

[HURAKAN]

[jaxfladude]

I hope the models do not align over Northeast Florida as a comprise(come on shear do Hanna in for good)...!!!!!

[storms in NC]

Why would they send in a recon when it is barly a TD? IMO

[storms in NC]

OT sorry but that map looks like piano notes.

[HURAKAN]

Why would they send in a recon when it is barly a TD? IMO

Because it's a threat to the Bahamas and future threat to the US. Moreover, SFMR has found winds of 45 mph so far.

[capepoint]

Why would they send in a recon when it is barly a TD? IMO

Because it's a threat to the Bahamas and future threat to the US. Moreover, SFMR has found winds of 45 mph so far.

The media are concentrating on New Orleans, and not really saying much about Hanna. If this thing were to ramp up or start moving WNW quickly, I fear there are plenty of people that would be really shocked because they don't know its out there.

[cpdaman]

we got recon , allright!

also bouy down to 29.49

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

winds there switching from NNE to ENE in last two hours......very close

[HURAKAN]

714
URNT12 KNHC 311624 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/15:44:50Z
B. 23 deg 42 min N
070 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 34 kt
E. 320 deg 62 nm
F. 058 deg 043 kt
G. 320 deg 063 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 18 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 06 CCA
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z

[storms in NC]

Well I have wwl4 on lessoning to them and reading and looking about Nanna.

I have freinds in La so I am concern for them and the farm.

[Emmett_Brown]

714
URNT12 KNHC 311624 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/15:44:50Z
B. 23 deg 42 min N
070 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 34 kt
E. 320 deg 62 nm
F. 058 deg 043 kt
G. 320 deg 063 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 18 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0108A HANNA OB 06 CCA
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 15:59:10 Z

Well, Hanna definitely exists by the looks of that VDM. Looking a slight bit better on Vis as well. A little bit of banding if you use your imagination. With a 998 pressure, it could come together quickly if the conditions were right. Fortunately, the conditions are still poor, at least for today.