ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Bocadude85]

why does it seem like the long term models have been so crappy this year? in the beginning they had fay hitting se fla.. then the fl panhandle and she ended up in sw fl granted they did show sw fl for a time also.. then gustav the early models were saying fl also.. I just do not get whats going on with them?

[bvigal]

In SIMPLE terms, is this what I'm reading on Hanna models this morning?
GFDL near Palm Beach, Cat2
GFS near Outer Banks, then skirt EC to NY and out to Cape Cod a strong TS
HWRF brushing Outer Banks, then out to sea Cat3

[fci]

Seems like IF Hanna survives the serious Northerly shear (and if it is 30 mph or so that would be a surprise); then the turn to the NW sparing South Florida is coming more into consensus.

Of course, I could go away for the afternoon and come back seeing something different, however; the models the past 24 hours or so seem to show a NW turn prior to the NW Bahamas.

I hope that The Carolinas are also spared if Hanna survives!

[stayawaynow]

In SIMPLE terms, is this what I'm reading on Hanna models this morning?
GFDL near Palm Beach, Cat2
GFS near Outer Banks, then skirt EC to NY and out to Cape Cod a strong TS
HWRF brushing Outer Banks, then out to sea Cat3

Can you please post the gfdl link. The link I click on shows way off the coast of SFL. Perhaps it is outdated.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS is coming in.

Heading just north of west through 18 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

EDIT: Westward trend with this one. The 24 hour frame is more westward than the 30 frame was with the run 6 hours ago.

[bvigal]

In SIMPLE terms, is this what I'm reading on Hanna models this morning?
GFDL near Palm Beach, Cat2
GFS near Outer Banks, then skirt EC to NY and out to Cape Cod a strong TS
HWRF brushing Outer Banks, then out to sea Cat3

Can you please post the gfdl link. The link I click on shows way off the coast of SFL. Perhaps it is outdated.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Same place I was looking, but you are right, don't see it now. Maybe it was the Canadian?

[ExBailbonds]

GFS loop. Hit refresh the new frames will come in as they become avaliable
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

72 hrs still in bahamas

[Evil Jeremy]

NW turn starts in about 78 hours, and is further west than the previous run. There is a westward trend going on this morning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

any one see a weaknss here?

[Trader Ron]

Most of the reliable models are in general agreement as to the direction. Northwest toward Ga to NC.

The UKMET is the outlier.

[Evil Jeremy]

Much further west at 108 hours than in the previous run. Aiming for Georgia/South Carolina:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

Much further west at 108 hours than in the previous run. Aiming for Georgia/South Carolina:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

Concur..seem to gt to 76 W or so this run

[typhoon_tim]

...looks like a slam here on the Grand Strand on early Friday morning...

[webke]

...looks like a slam here on the Grand Strand on early Friday morning...

Actually if you compare yesterdays runs of the GFS and todays they are mimicing each other. The 00z run had it going to SC the 06z to NC the 12 z back to SC,and that is happening again today.

[Bane]

yep, looks like landfall near myrtle beach on that run. the whole area could use the rain.

[gatorcane]

Hmmmm..

The UKMET takes her to Cuba Still and a bend through the FL Straits. It's an outlier now for sure but what is it seeing I wonder? Suddenly several models want to sharply turn Hanna to the NNW east of the Bahamas. These are the same models that wanted to turn Hanna SSW or SW into Haiti/Cuba just 48 hours ago below a monster ridge that was to build in over the Eastern CONUS.

Something is not right here. Why do I get the feeling the NHC is not believing this sudden NNW turn (or a turn NW for that matter so soon??/)

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL NC/SC border

[webke]

yep, looks like landfall near myrtle beach on that run. the whole area could use the rain.

Actually because of Fay we had rain here every day last week I do not know the total number of inches but it was ponding along the roads, and the field behind me is still failrly saturated.

[Trader Ron]

12z HWRF into Va. in 126 hrs. Coast -Hugger?