ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bigjohn]

I have no clue why but Channel 6 WDSU keeps showing some animation of a landfall near the TX/LA border. I'm not saying it isn't possible but I think some of the less educated might see this and thinks it's whats going to happen. VERY irresponsible IMHO.

I saw that. But it is not changing their predictions that this is a dangerous storm and everyone needs to get out. Therefore, I think calling it irresponsible may be a little strong. They are still telling folks the right thing to do and quoting winds, surge, and rain that would scare the bejeezus out of most people.

[tolakram]

This is part of the reason why so many people in NOLA didn't evacuate for Katrina.

With forecasts being what they are I don't see that there is any choice. If people want to live in Hurricane zones without clearly understanding the risks and the inaccuracies in current forecasting skills then there's not a lot we can do. It's not that anything you said is wrong, I just don't see any alternative until forecast skill improves.

[Texashawk]

So when they make forecasts and err on the cautious side of uncertainty, who could blame them? You cannot turn on and turn off an evacuation like a light switch. Yesterday, evacuation looked like a smart move. maybe at this point today, the intensity might be less. But we have no firm facts that say the threat is any less given the potential for Gus to re-strengthen. People have to make decisions to evacuate based on that potential threat. The media and the NHC therefore must focus more on potential threat rather than the conditions at a point in time. So lets make sure that while we can discuss what we think the current condition of Gus may or may not be, that is an entirely different conversation from one on whether the threat justifies evacuation. Remember, in making the decision to evacuate, four things can happen:

You evacuate and the storm threat does not materialize. Wasted effort but you and your loved ones are safe
You evacuate and the storm arrives as forecast. But your loved ones are safe.

You stay, and the storm threat does not materialize. You dodged a bullet and your loved ones are safe
You stay and the storm arrives as forecast. When it's over, you get to bury one or more of your loved ones.

Given the choice to go or stay, the smart choice is to protect your family.

It's not really that simple. Evacuations are a hassle and costs both time and money. If people evacuate this time and the threat doesn't materialize, then they will be hesitant to evacuate again in the future for a similar threat. This is part of the reason why so many people in NOLA didn't evacuate for Katrina. We had already been through numerous storms where we were told to evacuate but nothing came of it except rain and some moderate wind. I'm talking about Andrew, Georges, Opal, Ivan, etc. Many people just assumed the same would happen with Katrina and that is part of the reason why so many people stayed.

But that's the problem in a nutshell: If looking at a graphic of a 170 MPH monstrous hurricane, 24-36 hours out, with an arrow pointing directly at your house, drawn by the best hurricane prediction staff in the world, doesn't move people, what else can be done? At some point? Darwin's Law must take over... (and that's not a slight on LA people, I fear the same thing will happen in Houston for the Next Reported Big One)

But seriously... what else can it take?

[Hyperstorm]

I do not understand why some people were ignoring satellite imagery and recon observations last night. Satellite imagery and especially Air Force Recon does not support this system being stronger than a Category 2 at this time.

The interaction with land had very little to do with the weakening we're seeing. It's the increased mid-upper level shear that started affecting the system as it made landfall in Cuba. When there's shear, any dry air that may or may NOT show up on water vapor imagery (as it could be in a different level), gets mixed into the system making the structure look as ragged as it looks right now.

Any professional meteorologist can tell you that the structure the system has right now is classic for a system that is choking and trying to mix out the dry air (with convective bursts in one quadrant). I do believe the shear that's been mostly affecting the system today is more of a lower to mid-level shear, rather than the upper level shear that was affecting the system yesterday. Thus, the system was able to strengthen despite it.

I do believe in reanalysis this will be downgraded to a Category 2 during this time period and who knows what the final intensity at landfall will be. The system is currently over the loop current, but that DOESN'T at all matter if the system has wind and thermodynamic problems. You can tell the system is trying, but the waters are are not as deep the further north you go.

IMO, I do believe the NHC would have to downgrade this to a Category 2 at some point today, regardless of what the media/government and or public reaction will be.

THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

[tolakram]

Visible loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

You can see convection continuing to build and wrap around the center. Eye is obscured now due to new convection building over it. That southerly shear is doing a number on it still, though, in my opinion.

[bigjohn]

So when they make forecasts and err on the cautious side of uncertainty, who could blame them? You cannot turn on and turn off an evacuation like a light switch. Yesterday, evacuation looked like a smart move. maybe at this point today, the intensity might be less. But we have no firm facts that say the threat is any less given the potential for Gus to re-strengthen. People have to make decisions to evacuate based on that potential threat. The media and the NHC therefore must focus more on potential threat rather than the conditions at a point in time. So lets make sure that while we can discuss what we think the current condition of Gus may or may not be, that is an entirely different conversation from one on whether the threat justifies evacuation. Remember, in making the decision to evacuate, four things can happen:

You evacuate and the storm threat does not materialize. Wasted effort but you and your loved ones are safe
You evacuate and the storm arrives as forecast. But your loved ones are safe.

You stay, and the storm threat does not materialize. You dodged a bullet and your loved ones are safe
You stay and the storm arrives as forecast. When it's over, you get to bury one or more of your loved ones.

Given the choice to go or stay, the smart choice is to protect your family.

It's not really that simple. Evacuations are a hassle and costs both time and money. If people evacuate this time and the threat doesn't materialize, then they will be hesitant to evacuate again in the future for a similar threat. This is part of the reason why so many people in NOLA didn't evacuate for Katrina. We had already been through numerous storms where we were told to evacuate but nothing came of it except rain and some moderate wind. I'm talking about Andrew, Georges, Opal, Ivan, etc. Many people just assumed the same would happen with Katrina and that is part of the reason why so many people stayed.

I understand that all too well having lived in Slidell during Katrina and having spent a year re-building. Sure evacuations are a hassle and cost money and time. But life is not perfect and dying is not cheap either. You cannot worry about the future in determining what is the right thing to encourage people to do right now. And I still maintain that there is enough uncertainty on what Gustav will become to justyify staying the evacuation course. And if leadership were to reverse their course and withdraw the evacuation, do you think people will be any more inclined to listen the next time as compared to staying the course and having it tiurn into a non event?

[Texashawk]

I do not understand why some people were ignoring satellite imagery and recon observations last night. Satellite imagery and especially Air Force Recon does not support this system being stronger than a Category 2 at this time.

The interaction with land had very little to do with the weakening we're seeing. It's the increased mid-upper level shear that started affecting the system as it made landfall in Cuba. When there's shear, any dry air that may or may NOT show up on water vapor imagery (as it could be in a different level), gets mixed into the system making the structure look as ragged as it looks right now.

Any professional meteorologist can tell you that the structure the system has right now is classic for a system that is choking and trying to mix out the dry air (with convective bursts in one quadrant). I do believe the shear that's been mostly affecting the system today is more of a lower to mid-level shear, rather than the upper level shear that was affecting the system yesterday. Thus, the system was able to strengthen despite it.

I do believe in reanalysis this will be downgraded to a Category 2 during this time period and who knows what the final intensity at landfall will be. The system is currently over the loop current, but that DOESN'T at all matter if the system has wind and thermodynamic problems. You can tell the system is trying, but the waters are are not as deep the further north you go.

IMO, I do believe the NHC would have to downgrade this to a Category 2 at some point today, regardless of what the media/government and or public reaction will be.

THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

BTW, Hyperstorm, I owe you an apology. I was among those shouting you down last night when you called Gustav's troubles, and while I still don't necessarily buy your complete hypothesis, I must acknowledge your instincts were correct. I'm sorry.

[Tom8]

What is interesting it looks that Hanna is trying to go the same track as Gustav and is ready to go between Cuba nad Haiti .

[dhweather]

That's pretty irresponsible to say when all the scientific data is to the contrary right now. We don't know whether it might restrengthen to a major or stay the way it is. So no, it's not "pretty clear." btw, you can't get an EWRC when there's no solid eye to begin with. You can get an inner core collapse, but technically, that wouldn't be an EWRC.

Sorry to contradict you, but microwave imagery shows a possible outside eyewall as well as an inner eyewall.[/quote]

I am not to familiar with eyewall structure and replacements, what could this be possibly meaning [/quote]

in short:


Typically in major hurricanes, the eyewall basically dies off and a new one forms further out from the center and winds up becoming the new eyewall.

[superfly]

I understand that all too well having lived in Slidell during Katrina and having spent a year re-building. Sure evacuations are a hassle and cost money and time. But life is not perfect and dying is not cheap either. You cannot worry about the future in determining what is the right thing to encourage people to do right now. And I still maintain that there is enough uncertainty on what Gustav will become to justyify staying the evacuation course. And if leadership were to reverse their course and withdraw the evacuation, do you think people will be any more inclined to listen the next time as compared to staying the course and having it tiurn into a non event?

I would certainly evacuate central-eastern LA, but some of these other mandatory evacuations are ridiculous (like in SE Texas) and will just make those people complacent in the future.

[Texashawk]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think the more WNW turn is starting, yes I know it could be a weeble wobble but it's about due to start the turn...

[dhweather]

I want to urge anyone in the warning area to quit reading storm2k and looking at models, and rush to protect your lives and property. Get your important papers, 3-4 days of clothes, and EVACUATE.

Gus is moving very fast, and I would not wait around to "see".

[Hyperstorm]

I do not understand why some people were ignoring satellite imagery and recon observations last night. Satellite imagery and especially Air Force Recon does not support this system being stronger than a Category 2 at this time.

The interaction with land had very little to do with the weakening we're seeing. It's the increased mid-upper level shear that started affecting the system as it made landfall in Cuba. When there's shear, any dry air that may or may NOT show up on water vapor imagery (as it could be in a different level), gets mixed into the system making the structure look as ragged as it looks right now.

Any professional meteorologist can tell you that the structure the system has right now is classic for a system that is choking and trying to mix out the dry air (with convective bursts in one quadrant). I do believe the shear that's been mostly affecting the system today is more of a lower to mid-level shear, rather than the upper level shear that was affecting the system yesterday. Thus, the system was able to strengthen despite it.

I do believe in reanalysis this will be downgraded to a Category 2 during this time period and who knows what the final intensity at landfall will be. The system is currently over the loop current, but that DOESN'T at all matter if the system has wind and thermodynamic problems. You can tell the system is trying, but the waters are are not as deep the further north you go.

IMO, I do believe the NHC would have to downgrade this to a Category 2 at some point today, regardless of what the media/government and or public reaction will be.

THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

BTW, Hyperstorm, I owe you an apology. I was among those shouting you down last night when you called Gustav's troubles, and while I still don't necessarily buy your complete hypothesis, I must acknowledge your instincts were correct. I'm sorry.

Come on, no need for apologies at all. I didn't take anything personal. This is a message board to discuss information about hurricanes from all sides. We're all good. Have a nice day!

[Frank2]

I would certainly evacuate central-eastern LA, but some of these other mandatory evacuations are ridiculous (like in SE Texas) and will just make those people complacent in the future.

True, but, there are so many people and the evacuation time is long, so, they need to start so far ahead of time that the situation often will change when the evacuation is completed...

[Bane]

What is interesting it looks that Hanna is trying to go the same track as Gustav and is ready to go between Cuba nad Haiti .

no, it doesn't.

[feederband]

I understand that all too well having lived in Slidell during Katrina and having spent a year re-building. Sure evacuations are a hassle and cost money and time. But life is not perfect and dying is not cheap either. You cannot worry about the future in determining what is the right thing to encourage people to do right now. And I still maintain that there is enough uncertainty on what Gustav will become to justyify staying the evacuation course. And if leadership were to reverse their course and withdraw the evacuation, do you think people will be any more inclined to listen the next time as compared to staying the course and having it tiurn into a non event?

I would certainly evacuate central-eastern LA, but some of these other mandatory evacuations are ridiculous (like in SE Texas) and will just make those people complacent in the future.

So what....The smart ones will still leave...The complacent ones can gamble with their lives all they want...As long as they take the blame when a loved one or a rescue person loses a life because of it..

[bigjohn]

I understand that all too well having lived in Slidell during Katrina and having spent a year re-building. Sure evacuations are a hassle and cost money and time. But life is not perfect and dying is not cheap either. You cannot worry about the future in determining what is the right thing to encourage people to do right now. And I still maintain that there is enough uncertainty on what Gustav will become to justyify staying the evacuation course. And if leadership were to reverse their course and withdraw the evacuation, do you think people will be any more inclined to listen the next time as compared to staying the course and having it tiurn into a non event?

I would certainly evacuate central-eastern LA, but some of these other mandatory evacuations are ridiculous (like in SE Texas) and will just make those people complacent in the future.

I agree that at this point a Texas evacuation is silly. Maybe Beaumont Pt. Arthur should have been on alert yesterday But I think the call for any Texas evacuation was a little premature. But then I don't get paid to lead those people...so that's just my opinion.

[Jason_B]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think the more WNW turn is starting, yes I know it could be a weeble wobble but it's about due to start the turn...

Actually looks more like a NNW jog on this. But with the eye being so distorted who knows.

[HURAKAN]

[Texashawk]

I understand that all too well having lived in Slidell during Katrina and having spent a year re-building. Sure evacuations are a hassle and cost money and time. But life is not perfect and dying is not cheap either. You cannot worry about the future in determining what is the right thing to encourage people to do right now. And I still maintain that there is enough uncertainty on what Gustav will become to justyify staying the evacuation course. And if leadership were to reverse their course and withdraw the evacuation, do you think people will be any more inclined to listen the next time as compared to staying the course and having it tiurn into a non event?

I would certainly evacuate central-eastern LA, but some of these other mandatory evacuations are ridiculous (like in SE Texas) and will just make those people complacent in the future.

Obviously you don't know how many millions of people live on/near the Upper Texas coast. Nobody wants a repeat of Rita, but the reality is that it is technically and practically impossible to evacuate everybody within a timeline that people can be 'sure' that a storm will be a threat. So if you're an (elected) official, you make the call on the side of caution. That's not 'ridiculous', that's reality.