ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cpdaman]

hey WXMAN 57 have you done any 3 hour fixes lately.

i'm interested in your heading and speed readings

[KWT]

Yep Buck, lets hope Gustav doesn't join that group of powerful hurricanes...

If the shear does ease off, with such impressive divergence and general conditions and high SST's (heat content won't matter much at all with gustav moving so fast.) then this could well strengthen somewhat before landfall but its a big unknown as to whether the shear does ease off in time.

[rtd2]

A ship 150 nm due North of Gustav reported 60 kt sustained winds and 46 foot waves a little over a half hour ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

The 46 foot wave I would easily believe but I'm suspect of the wind speed that far away?

[GG]

Many computer models have Gustav making landfall on Louisiana and turning west towards Texas. This could be a flood event for Texas and that has me actually more concerned.

did anyone notice that the NHC did not even mention Texas in the latest advisory concerning rain fall????....

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

another question for the pro's.....should SE Tx be concerned with the latest model shifts to the west???

[KWT]

Probably not this time KWT. I put the straight edge to the present position with Juventude as a reference and it finally came up west of N.O. meaning the High is starting to take Gus slightly left as NHC predicted. The trop points are so close to actual track that you can consider NHC track accurate at this point.

Yeah but that not taking account the fact it could jog east of the relative track, the NHC track should be pretty close but obviously any wobbles will make a difference to those near the eyewall.

[Ptarmigan]

Just doesnt look like your typical Cat 3 cyclone....

Yeah, Hurricane Alicia looked a lot more impressive and some say it was not a Category 3 hurricane.

[smw1981]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

Remember wxman57's stat from yesterday that in a 10 year study, roughly 75% of Gulf Storms go to the right of the official track.

The only thing that concerns me (for my family and friends in Mobile and on the MGC) is this! My mom and I were talking earlier about Dennis...the NHC track had it hitting Mobile directly the night before it was supposed to hit. My mom had come to stay with me farther inland because my dad refused to leave their river house (stupid, we know...but he is stubborn). That night, my mom and I followed the storm for hours (on S2k!) because we were so worried. It ended up jogging east at the last second and hit between Santa Rosa Island and Navarre beach (a good 2 hour car ride from Mobile), and I don't even remember it raining in Mobile that day lol.

I tried to find these tracks on the archives, but for some reason there are only 9 pages of Dennis advisories. Regardless, we have seen storms do this time and time again (Georges, Ivan, Dennis, etc.), making we wonder if Gus won't do the same. Luckily, MGC has evacuation orders now (finally!), but I just hope people actually heeded the warnings.

[Dean4Storms]

We just got a torrential downpour here in Destin, FL My Davis Vantage Pro recorded .24" in 5 minutes. I couldn't see across the street! Winds gusted to 26mph.

[BigB0882]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

It is almost big as Katrina.

According to Nagin, this storm is "twice as large as Katrina." No, I am not kidding, he really said that.

[Bunkertor]

Recon shows the center right on forecast line.

Is there a link to track those flights ?

[Thunder44]

Those aren't the same forecast track points they had for 7 days. They have been shifting the track points further east. So now it looks more on track.

Oh I know that Thunder44, what I should have said is they have had La as the landfall point for many days.(Even though it was in the cone and they continued to say, that track errors up to several hungred miles do occur that far out, and the exact location of landfall was impossible to tell. Of course it has flipped flopped east & west for days but basically stayed in La)

Ok. I do agree they were good at forecasting a LA landfall, five days out.

[BigB0882]

Many computer models have Gustav making landfall on Louisiana and turning west towards Texas. This could be a flood event for Texas and that has me actually more concerned.

did anyone notice that the NHC did not even mention Texas in the latest advisory concerning rain fall????....

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

another question for the pro's.....should SE Tx be concerned with the latest model shifts to the west???

Curious, what models shifted West? Are they any of the ones who have been calling this correctly?

[KWT]

Well those are just scare tactics from Nagin, it makes sense I suppose in this situation to scare people out.

However its not far off from Katrina size and by the time this makes landfall I suspect the two will be pretty much equal size.

[dhweather]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

It is almost big as Katrina.

According to Nagin, this storm is "twice as large as Katrina." No, I am not kidding, he really said that.

He's doing his best to get people to take this extremely serious and get out - and it seems to be working just fine.

[Sanibel]

Just a thought - If Gus is coming under a ridge it could have a different effect on it. Katrina is a good example of a system traveling on the SW side of a High pressure feature.

He's doing his best to get people to take this extremely serious and get out - and it seems to be working just fine.

TV showed empty roads in New Orleans. People are already gone.

[HouTXmetro]

Many computer models have Gustav making landfall on Louisiana and turning west towards Texas. This could be a flood event for Texas and that has me actually more concerned.

did anyone notice that the NHC did not even mention Texas in the latest advisory concerning rain fall????....

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

another question for the pro's.....should SE Tx be concerned with the latest model shifts to the west???

Curious, what models shifted West? Are they any of the ones who have been calling this correctly?

GFDL and NGFDL shifted into Cameron Parish. Links are in the model thread.

[RainWind]

Local met just stated that there is a possibility that this storm will continue to have problems due to shear, and that we may not get as much as we thought and that was good news for southeast La. Is this right? Should we start to feel some relief? RW

[GG]

Many computer models have Gustav making landfall on Louisiana and turning west towards Texas. This could be a flood event for Texas and that has me actually more concerned.

did anyone notice that the NHC did not even mention Texas in the latest advisory concerning rain fall????....

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

another question for the pro's.....should SE Tx be concerned with the latest model shifts to the west???

Curious, what models shifted West? Are they any of the ones who have been calling this correctly?

from the models thread:

GFDL making a sharper turn to the left closer to landfall this time to the Cameron/Vermilion parish line, with the center going over Cameron itself.

UKMET shifting west from Grand Isle to Cocodrie.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

As noted earlier the GFS also shifted west to Cameron Parish for the 12Z run.

[BigB0882]

Well those are just scare tactics from Nagin, it makes sense I suppose in this situation to scare people out.

However its not far off from Katrina size and by the time this makes landfall I suspect the two will be pretty much equal size.

I see your point about scaring people out but there is no need to panic people, either. To say this storm is twice as large is just one of the worst exaggerations I have ever heard. He could compare it, even call it "as big as" but to say it is double is just a flat out LIE.

[Ptarmigan]

According to Nagin, this storm is "twice as large as Katrina." No, I am not kidding, he really said that.

What was Nagin smoking? Gustav has hurricane force winds up to 50 miles from the eye and TS winds of up to 200 miles. Katrina had hurricane force winds up to 120 miles and TS of up up to 230 miles.