ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bigjohn]

A ship 150 nm due North of Gustav reported 60 kt sustained winds and 46 foot waves a little over a half hour ago.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Ummmm....46 foot waves? WOW! Were any waves like this recorded for Katrina. This seems very high.

I work for an oil company that had wave instrumentation on the structure as part of a met program in conjunction with the MMS. The instrument broke after reading wave heights during Katrina of up to 86 feet.

[KWT]

BigB0882, he may also just not know the true facts I suppose Eeither way its worked a treat and thats what matters.

Also there is certainly a real chance that shear remains a problem and doesn't ease quickly enough for Gustav to take advantage of that, however with such explosive convection may only need 3-6hrs.

[HurricaneRobert]

Crap I thought it was weakening, but that's a huge blowup in the past couple of hours. Yesterday it had hurricane-force winds about as far as Rita, but now its a little smaller?

[VeniceInlet]

Very Windy across Florida's peninsula.

Sustained Tropical Storm Force Winds Reaching Tampa Bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MNP165
Saint Petersburg: East 39 mph, Gusts 46 mph


Very Windy across Florida's Peninsula in the Tampa Bay Area:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLCLEAR25
East 23 mph Gust 42 mph Clearwater Beach

Tampa Bay: E36 Gusts 47 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MC6730

Wow TBH! If you guys are getting that there really makes me a bit more concerned about what we could possibly get here. I'm only 6 miles from Mobile Bay

I find this report very surprising. I'm just sixty miles south of Tampa, 1/2 mile inland from the Gulf, and we've barely had a breeze. We've had 3" of rain since yesterday.

Everybody stay safe.

[Buck]

Local met just stated that there is a possibility that this storm will continue to have problems due to shear, and that we may not get as much as we thought and that was good news for southeast La. Is this right? Should we start to feel some relief? RW

Sounds like either a bad met or just a foolish one.

[LSU2001]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

It is almost big as Katrina.

According to Nagin, this storm is "twice as large as Katrina." No, I am not kidding, he really said that.

Nagin has been saying that but he also is saying the "footprint" in LA. I think what he means is that with the angle of attack, Gus will move over much, much more of La. If that is what he means then he is correct. The path of this storm will cause damage over a much larger portion of La. than Katrina did.
Tim

[Ptarmigan]

I work for an oil company that had wave instrumentation on the structure as part of a met program in conjunction with the MMS. The instrument broke after reading wave heights during Katrina of up to 86 feet.

Since 86 foot waves were measured in Katrina and broke. It would not surprise me if Katrina produced waves as high as +120 feet waves.

[rtd2]

Ts Force Winds out 200 miles, big storm.

It is almost big as Katrina.

According to Nagin, this storm is "twice as large as Katrina." No, I am not kidding, he really said that.

Over footprint? maybe....WIND FIELD IN MILES NOT EVEN CLOSE! ...SO FAR thats the key! it aint over

[Wx_Warrior]

I was told to scrap models this close to landfall....who knows?

[cpdaman]

Local met just stated that there is a possibility that this storm will continue to have problems due to shear, and that we may not get as much as we thought and that was good news for southeast La. Is this right? Should we start to feel some relief? RW

Sounds like either a bad met or just a foolish one.

sounds to me that most people can't understand what possibly means

[KWT]

Sounds like either a bad met or just a foolish one.

Hard to say at this time, the shear may indeed not weaken and hold up till after landfall, equally it could ease off in the next few hours and give this system another 12hrs over warm waters with very decent conditions and could well make it to the forecasted strength.

Right now still too early to say.

[soonertwister]

The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.

Remember wxman57's stat from yesterday that in a 10 year study, roughly 75% of Gulf Storms go to the right of the official track.

The only thing that concerns me (for my family and friends in Mobile and on the MGC) is this! My mom and I were talking earlier about Dennis...the NHC track had it hitting Mobile directly the night before it was supposed to hit. My mom had come to stay with me farther inland because my dad refused to leave their river house (stupid, we know...but he is stubborn). That night, my mom and I followed the storm for hours (on S2k!) because we were so worried. It ended up jogging east at the last second and hit between Santa Rosa Island and Navarre beach (a good 2 hour car ride from Mobile), and I don't even remember it raining in Mobile that day lol.

I tried to find these tracks on the archives, but for some reason there are only 9 pages of Dennis advisories. Regardless, we have seen storms do this time and time again (Georges, Ivan, Dennis, etc.), making we wonder if Gus won't do the same. Luckily, MGC has evacuation orders now (finally!), but I just hope people actually heeded the warnings.

You can find a comprehensive summary on Dennis at this page, in both pdf and Word formats.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005atlan.shtml

[bigjohn]

These waves were being measure 100 miles offshore if that helps your estimating

[rtd2]

I was told to scrap models this close to landfall....who knows?

The models have certainly came into agreement some stacking on top of others...Keep in mind the NHC is just SLIGHTLY different on track than the models so no one is scrapping them

[Buck]

Local met just stated that there is a possibility that this storm will continue to have problems due to shear, and that we may not get as much as we thought and that was good news for southeast La. Is this right? Should we start to feel some relief? RW

Sounds like either a bad met or just a foolish one.

sounds to me that most people can't understand what possibly means

That's part of it. Television mets need to be especially careful when they are talking about favorable possibilities. Plenty of people who hear something like that might let their guard down.

[WxGuy1]

Local met just stated that there is a possibility that this storm will continue to have problems due to shear, and that we may not get as much as we thought and that was good news for southeast La. Is this right? Should we start to feel some relief? RW

Sounds like either a bad met or just a foolish one.

Why is he a bad or foolish meteorologist? Gustav is having problems with shear (and perhaps now a big chunk of dry air to its west through south). And chances are, Gustav won't be as bad as previously thought. This does NOT mean it'll something to sneeze at, but he's just telling it like it is. Always saying "This is will be the Storm of the Century" is very counterproductive unless it really is "The storm of the century". Overwarning and false alarms can be very bad for warning response (i.e. folks become complacent) in the long term. Heck, that's partially why the original response of people before Katrina was so lacksidaisical -- "Ah, we've been through hurricane warnings before, so I'm sure we'll be fine this time".

[Buck]

Local met just stated that there is a possibility that this storm will continue to have problems due to shear, and that we may not get as much as we thought and that was good news for southeast La. Is this right? Should we start to feel some relief? RW

Sounds like either a bad met or just a foolish one.

Why is he a bad or foolish meteorologist? Gustav is having problems with shear (and perhaps now a big chunk of dry air to its west through south). And chances are, Gustav won't be as bad as previously thought. This does NOT mean it'll something to sneeze at, but he's just telling it like it is. Always saying "This is will be the Storm of the Century" is very counterproductive unless it really is "The storm of the century". Overwarning and false alarms can be very bad for warning response (i.e. folks become complacent) in the long term. Heck, that's partially why the original response of people before Katrina was so lacksidaisical -- "Ah, we've been through hurricane warnings before, so I'm sure we'll be fine this time".

See my post above. I'm not saying that what he said isn't true... I just think the more caution, the better with on-air meteorologists.

[Weatherfreak000]

Keep in mind the storm is STILL moving slightly East of the NHC's track...and has consistently done so since this time yesterday.


At this point the storm would have to make an unreasonably hard left turn to follow what the models are saying. The way I am currently seeing it, if the storm does make a left shift...it will only follow the NHC track..or perhaps slightly to the west of it. Otherwise the storm is moving too fast to allow the ridge to turn it away.


This is of course, my opinion (i'd hope that needs not explanation). So take my next comment as such as well- Scrap the latest model run. I don't expect to see the same thing for the next run.

[dhweather]

With the outflow restricted to the west and south, the dry air, I am beginning to think that Gus won't make it to category 4 before landfall. If we are lucky, maybe he'll drop to a 2.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cpdaman]

CNN met just made a good comment IMO that with a storm moving at the speed gustav is it will not just "explode" as it hit's the loop current, because sometimes there can be a bit (assuming 2 or so hours) of a lag effect

so i would look to see over the next two hours if this lag effect kicks in (and not write off intensification in any way, shape, or form just yet) , since she is on the very nothern extreme of the loop current now and leaving it in the next hour or two