ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Recurve]

This may turn into one of the more agonizing watch and wait scenarios, as a TS swirls in the Bahamas and all of Florida and the EC watches, depending on strength forecasts.
So far NHC isn't biting on a western scenario, though the top of the Keys are just in the cone the last I saw.

[Evil Jeremy]

Much more south this run. Hanna is making a B line to Florida and Georgia it seems:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

Much more south this run. Hanna is making a B line to Florida and Georgia it seems:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

For Sure

[vacanechaser]

Much more south this run. Hanna is making a B line to Florida and Georgia it seems:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

For Sure

looks like ga sc to me... not fla... lets remember also, it is the 18z...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Regit]

GFS 114-120 looks like landfall at Charleston.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Much more south this run. Hanna is making a B line to Florida and Georgia it seems:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

For Sure

looks like ga sc to me... not fla... lets remember also, it is the 18z...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Point her was trend...Was outerbanks before...

[vacanechaser]

[
Point her was trend...Was outerbanks before...

s.c. to n.c. landfall





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Regit]

Point her was trend...Was outerbanks before...

I've seen many times where there will be a big shift one way followed immediately by a big shift right back the other way. In a couple days, we'll have a much better idea.

[vacanechaser]

Point her was trend...Was outerbanks before...

I've seen many times where there will be a big shift one way followed immediately by a big shift right back the other way. In a couple days, we'll have a much better idea.

no doubt... from 12z to now, really is not a trend.. a true trend would have to be through tomorrow.. then we will see what happens... still north of florida and ga


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

500mb vort max



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

The models don't mean much at all until they get a better grip on this systems foward speed, if the GFDL starts wth a reasonable foward speed I'll pay it attention.

[artist]

but all but the very nw tip of Fl is in the cone.

[bahamaswx]

The models don't mean much at all until they get a better grip on this systems foward speed, if the GFDL starts wth a reasonable foward speed I'll pay it attention.

Indeed. Beyond 72hrs the model spread is too large and inconsistent to be of much use.

[caneman]

UKIE is still West if not slightly WSW thru 48 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[storms in NC]

[
Point her was trend...Was outerbanks before...

s.c. to n.c. landfall





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team[/q


I think so too.

[jlauderdal]

UKIE is still West if not slightly WSW thru 48 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

persistent little brit that model is

[gtsmith]

In a couple days, we'll have a much better idea.

and we've been saying that for days...just this past Thursday/Friday everyone was saying we'd know by sunday...no- we won't. we won't know what she's doing until she does it...all this pontification is for not <- but it sure is fun

[caneman]

In a couple days, we'll have a much better idea.

and we've been saying that for days...just this past Thursday/Friday everyone was saying we'd know by sunday...no- we won't. we won't know what she's doing until she does it...all this pontification is for not <- but it sure is fun

Aside from Gustav recently picking up speed. We've had some real slow movers this year.

[Blown Away]

UKIE is still West if not slightly WSW thru 48 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

persistent little brit that model is

Do you think they like being the outlier in their office across the pond?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the latest models information:

Hanna could pass close to the Florida Coast bringing hurricane force
winds along the East Coast, with a landfall in the Carolinas as a Category 1
Hurricane. I am basing the northward turn off of a cut-off low that may exert
a northward pull. I think this will help the drought in the Carolinas. Though
I think there may have been flooding problems last week when Tropical Storm
Fay's Remnant Low's Rains moved through.


Impacts: Heavy Rains and Strong Tropical Storm Force winds across the Florida
Peninsula (with Hurricane Force winds possible along the East Coast), Tropical
Storm to Hurricane Conditions possible for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina,
with heavy rains moving in. North Carolina might get some drought relief.