ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

The signal that 97L will change to TD will be in the ATCF site if they renumber 97L to AL09. Lets see what happens between 8:30 PM EDT and 9:00 PM EDT,the timeframe that they do these changes.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks better then Hanna shear alot. Lets see if more convection forming over the center...The only factor that may stop this is the cooler water if it moves more northward.

[Category 5]

Looks like a depression to me. I expect Advisorys by 11pm.

You could easily make an argument for that.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye, I don't think they will do anything till the next Qscat.

Also what were the T numbers like with this system?

[RL3AO]

They don't need to wait for quikscat. Visibles show it clearly has an LLC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yep cycloneye, I don't think they will do anything till the next Qscat.

Also what were the T numbers like with this system?

The last quickscat shown a closed LLC. This has also developed convection right over that LLC and is developing. I expect a nice blow up over the next 6 hours.

[RattleMan]

Also what were the T numbers like with this system?

Code: Select all

  31/1745 UTC    16.1N   33.8W    T1.0/1.0              97L
  31/1145 UTC    15.9N   31.1W    T1.0/1.0              97L
  31/0600 UTC    15.7N   30.8W    TOO WEAK              97L
  30/2345 UTC    15.4N   27.4W    TOO WEAK              97L
  30/1745 UTC    14.4N   26.1W    TOO WEAK              97L
  30/1145 UTC    14.3N   25.6W    T1.0/1.0              97L
  30/0545 UTC    13.4N   23.6W    T1.0/1.0              97L
  29/2345 UTC    13.1N   22.4W    T1.0/1.0              97L
  29/1730 UTC    14.6N   21.2W    TOO WEAK              97L
  29/1300 UTC    14.4N   20.6W    TOO WEAK              97L

[KWT]

Hmm a touch low on the t-numbers. The NHC may upgrade it but I still think they will wait for a little longer yet, they may well pull the trigger once the T numbers reach 1.5, when that happens with the LLC pretty clear they may well go for it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hmm a touch low on the t-numbers. The NHC may upgrade it but I still think they will wait for a little longer yet, they may well pull the trigger once the T numbers reach 1.5, when that happens with the LLC pretty clear they may well go for it.

The LLC is closer to 17.8-18.2 north. The sab t number is not pointing toward where the LLC is. I also have learned not to put as much stock into them this season...Some would like to disagree, but that is the way I feel. This is a depression. We will see when it is upgrade, no threat to land.

[terrapintransit]

Does this look like a fish?

[Cryomaniac]

Hmm a touch low on the t-numbers. The NHC may upgrade it but I still think they will wait for a little longer yet, they may well pull the trigger once the T numbers reach 1.5, when that happens with the LLC pretty clear they may well go for it.

I agree, I can't see an upgrade with <1.5 T numbers.

[KWT]

It may well be a tropical depression right now who knows, but the NHC wil lnot upgrade with T numbers below 1.5, esp based on what I've seen this season so far.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is not a degree+ south of where it is like the quickscat is saying. It's off.

[KWT]

Well the Vis imagery earlier on did suggest it was down around 16N, whether or not thats still the case I don't know but there you go?

[HURAKAN]

[masaji79]

Does this look like a fish?

With all the landfalling storms this year, let hope the rest of the season will bring more fishes than landlovers!

[HURAKAN]

636
ABNT20 KNHC 312354
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W FROM 11N TO 22N WITH AN EMBEDDED
1006 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 17N. THE WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE FLOW ALOFT AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ANTICYCLONIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE CIRCULATION
COVERS A LARGE AREA AND THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO
22N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Best Track for 97L.No TD yet.

AL, 97, 2008090100, , BEST, 0, 169N, 347W, 30, 1006, DB,

[HURAKAN]

Deeper convection near the center.