ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[amawea]

There is no dry air in the n.E. quadrant. The dry air is the orange color to the west and southwest of the storm.

[Stormcenter]

I don't see any dry air intrusion.

Right into the center

Thanks for the comfirmation.

[BigB0882]

I have been watching Fox News and saw nothing of the sort. Where are you getting this info? All they are showing is the cone.

It was one of their bulletins that cames up on the bottom of the screen in big all cap letters.

[soonertwister]

According to my bouy/cman station data, there is a ship 160 miles south of Panama City Fl right now reporting 78 MPH from the NE (50 deg), visibility 0.025 and 11 meter waves! I hope this is some kind of temporary bouy and not a manned ship, although 11 meter waves would be quite an interesting experience if the ship was large enough.

That's a ship. It's been heading north all day a little faster than Gustav. Discus buoy 42003 was starting to show some interesting numbers, but failed when Gustav got too close sometime before 11:49 am CDT this morning.

42364, which is located on a Shell Oil platform, is showing 42.7 kt at 165 kts NNE of Gustav.
Discus bouy 42036 is 194 nm NE of Gustav, and shows winds of 33 kts.
NOAA's PSTL1 is part of a water level monitoring network and just offshore at SW Pass, LA. It's entirely possible that Gustav could pass right over that spot. It delivered data every 6 minutes. It's reported 33 kt winds in the past hour, at 189 nm NW by NNW from Gustav.

[Hyperstorm]

I hear a lot of comments about the dry air but I have not seen an image or graph indicating the dry air intrusion.

Hurakan, you cannot always see dry air on water vapor imagery as it can occur at different levels that are not visible because they could be hidden underneath the cloud canopy.

Read the latest NHC discussion. There's been southerly shear hurting this system since it left Cuba and the dry air that is south of the system is being intruded by this same southerly inflow. You will not see it because the hurricane's high cloud cover is covering it up. If the dry air continues to be a problem, you will notice that as the hurricane moves closer where you'll see the strong deep convection, but radar will show little to no precipitation in that quadrant.

Having said that, the system is slowly trying to mix this dry air out as southerly shear does not seem as strong based on the very slight expansion of the cloud cover on the S-SE side. I still see this system as a Category 2 or low-end Category 3 at landfall based on many different factors that I've mentioned previously.

[KWT]

soonertwister, so we know that there are near tropical storm force winds 189nm away from the center then!

[pablolopez26]

That's a ship. It's been heading north all day a little faster than Gustav.

I wonder if its an oil tanker or something.

[KWT]

Yep hyperstorm, without the shear there would be no dry air working its way into the working probably into the NE side as it would have been all mixed out before then probably.

[Blown Away]

I know Gus will cause alot of problems for alot of people, but this is not very good looking Cat 3 on satellite.

[Wx_Warrior]

Been here in the hotel room watching fox and nothing like that...yes they are hyping...that's was the national media does - RATINGS.

We all know where it's going and preps were made. Now, some on here want to see wobble this (so texas now in trouble) and wobble (oh my lands look out alabama)....

[Ivanhater]

Everyone on the North central Gulfcoast get indoors..its coming!

[mvtrucking]

I have been watching Fox News and saw nothing of the sort. Where are you getting this info? All they are showing is the cone.

It was one of their bulletins that cames up on the bottom of the screen in big all cap letters.

Fox News started showing that graphic when the NHC bumped the track a few miles west at 4pm CDT. Although at the exact same time they were showing the storm NW at 16 (Same as it has been since before Cuba.)

[tolakram]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[Nexus]

[soonertwister]

soonertwister, so we know that there are near tropical storm force winds 189nm away from the center then!

That's pretty impressive reach, if you ask me.

[Blown Away]

I know Gus will cause alot of problems for alot of people, but this is not very good looking Cat 3 on satellite.

Just signing on today?

Just making an observation, sorry if this similiar to other post's. BTW, been spending way to many hours tracking Gus & Hanna, but thanks for the concern.

[SoupBone]

If this thing had a visible eye it would look even more menacing. Still a monster though.

[hiflyer]

At about 430p cdt Recon found just over 50kt surface winds 165 miles sse from downtown New Orleans.....

At 0509p cdt the other ac found just over 45kt surface just about 145 miles sse of the city.

With the advance quoted by NHC looks like about 9hrs into New Orleans for those winds....lots sooner for the se coast.

Eglin radar holding the northern eye wall now...roughly putting New Orleans on about a 320 track and 250nm out.....

[ColdFusion]

Look at that dry slot working its way in.

[KWT]

I think it may be undergoing some slight weakening right now, the eye is totally clouded over now, I suspect the NHC may leave it at 115mph for now though.

Ivanhater, yep the outer bands of convection already pushing towards the gulf coasts, looks a pretty hefty band as well.