ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks much better organized with outflow trying to fan out over the southern quad. Also a sign of a eye trying to form.

[Ivanhater]

I think it may be undergoing some slight weakening right now, the eye is totally clouded over now, I suspect the NHC may leave it at 115mph for now though.

Ivanhater, yep the outer bands of convection already pushing towards the gulf coasts, looks a pretty hefty band as well.

Yep..I just got everything out of the yard and I'm indoors til hes gone

[KWT]

Matt, the eye has actually clouded over, it was there about 3hrs ago but has been clouded over.

Also that imagery does show that little dry slot between the core and that band that is now working its way steadily towards the gulf coast.

[Sabanic]

Everyone on the North central Gulfcoast get indoors..its coming!

Yup IH looks like it's getting much closer. Local media, Fox 10, and WPMI saying we can expect sustained winds above Trop Storm force beginning late this evening through tomorrow, with possible gusts tomorrow through mid-day near hurricane strength.

Looks like even this far to the east it's going to be getting really nasty. Prayers are up for all that will going through Gus.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks much better organized with outflow trying to fan out over the southern quad. Also a sign of a eye trying to form.

Easily the best it has looked all day. For once, convection is actually symmetric, with reds all the way around the eye, which is now forming. If the eye can clear out all the way tonight, then we could see a 135mph hurricane in the morning. It all depends on what happens.

[Cryomaniac]

I'm not questioning what anyone is saying, since I have no experience in this sort of thing, but that really doesn't look like a Cat-3 hurricane.

[RL3AO]

Eyewall now showing up on the NOLA radar (248nm)

[tolakram]

MIMIC loop
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[KWT]

TS winds probably arent that far away now it seems, probably get gusts into TS as that solid CDO band moves in from the gulf.

Also big convective line moing towards LA right now though MS.

[THead]

I don't see any dry air intrusion.

I hate to ask questions about the projected impact time but this pic suggests it could be earlier than 8 AM CDT...

Right ?

Theyre going to start getting impacted by squalls really soon. He is definitely coming in quick.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[superfly]

This is the best he's looked all day. The dry spots in the N/NE quad looks like they're finally starting to get mixed out. The deep convection is looking more symmetric and the center looks to be under the NE part of the deep convection now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt, the eye has actually clouded over, it was there about 3hrs ago but has been clouded over.

Also that imagery does show that little dry slot between the core and that band that is now working its way steadily towards the gulf coast.

Remember that outside the eyewall you have sinking air. When the convectin builds around the eye you have rising air...So I expect that eye to start clearing out.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not questioning what anyone is saying, since I have no experience in this sort of thing, but that really doesn't look like a Cat-3 hurricane.

How does it not? So the eye has clouded...there have been a lot of cat 3 hurricanes that didnt have eyes, until further strengthening. Ex. Emily 2005. When it reached cat4 for the first time in the east caribbean, it did not have a clear eye.

[KWT]

RL3AO, indeed there is the eyewall indeed, can see that big thick band already heading towards the the gulf states.

Sadly heard that 3 have died on the transport of critical patients.

[setxweathergal]

Been here in the hotel room watching fox and nothing like that...yes they are hyping...that's was the national media does - RATINGS.

We all know where it's going and preps were made. Now, some on here want to see wobble this (so texas now in trouble) and wobble (oh my lands look out alabama)....

I saw it too about 1 hr ago on Fox: News alert--Gustav heading more west. So whoever mentioned it wasn't crazy.

[deltadog03]

This is moving faster than I even thought it would...Might be onshore in 12-14 hours now.

[Downdraft]

Ship 27.6 -85.6 C6CL6 measuring 78mph winds 115.75 nautical miles northeast of the center. Also reporting 11 meter waves every 2 seconds.

[soonertwister]

That's a ship. It's been heading north all day a little faster than Gustav.

I wonder if its an oil tanker or something.

I'd think it's more likely to be a naval vessel. I appears headed to Pensacola. Don't they have a naval station there? They were pretty close to Gustav this morning, but those guys aren't much scared by hurricanes. It even could have been a training mission, to get the crew used to doing their duties under the stress of high winds and heavy seas.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No question that this is becoming better organized. Look at the red all the way around that small warm spot, that is the eye. I expect to see it clear out. Be very scare, because if shear don't pick back up, this could strengthen some maybe as much as 10-15 knots. In maybe just maybe not making landfall as a weaking storm like the others.

[shah8]

Deep convection has reached all the way around. We should see an eye pop out soon.