ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

derek

will you be putting out another forecast before landfall?

[Normandy]

Bash me if you want, this is underground rapid intensification.

Extrapolated pressure now at 949 mbs. Another 2 mb drop in 30 minutes. Start praying for Louisiana.

[GoneBabyGone]

Prayers to all those on the coast.

This track looks much worse on paper for me in Baton Rouge. Should I now be expecting sustained hurricane force winds?

[KWT]

Yep that band heading through N.O looks pretty decent right now, the more prolonged stuff moving moving into the panhandle now and also the SE tip of LA.

[Enzo Aquarius]

Prayers to all those on the coast.

This track looks much worse on paper for me in Baton Rouge. Should I now be expecting sustained hurricane force winds?

Baton Rouge? Might want to be getting ready for this ASAP, landfall isn't far off and the outer bands are already causing trouble.

[mattpetre]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Gustav take a track closer to the last GFDL before landfall and I also wouldn't be too surprised to see it travelling around 10mph by the time it does make landfall. Just what I'm seeing in the model trends and the steering synoptics. Gustav has made an environment of its own to some extent (just look at the water vapor all the way up to the lower Ohio Valley already!) but the ridge is in place and I think it's probably time for a bit more WNW motion in the next 6 hrs or so. Just my amateur opinion after 15 days watching this storm do his thing.

[Shockwave]

Did anyone see that band that just hit where Mike Bettis is? Pretty strong winds that far out.

I saw it. It almost blew him down with one gust. Cantore is more west of Slidell so he has yet to see anything, but like always. His time is coming.

[GoneBabyGone]

Prayers to all those on the coast.

This track looks much worse on paper for me in Baton Rouge. Should I now be expecting sustained hurricane force winds?

Baton Rouge? Might want to be getting ready for this, landfall isn't far off and the outer bands are already causing trouble.

I'm ready, but I'm curious what exactly to expect based on this latest forecast.

[bob rulz]

Wow, maybe this will cause more damage than I thought. Just a few hours ago I was telling people that New Orleans shouldn't be affected like it was during Katrina, now I'm not so sure (although the surge still won't be as high and there's less people left behind).

[HURAKAN]

[Bunkertor]

Bash me if you want, this is underground rapid intensification.

Extrapolated pressure now at 949 mbs. Another 2 mb drop in 30 minutes. Start praying for Louisiana.

4 mb / h ?

[tolakram]

Bash me if you want, this is underground rapid intensification.

I had to, I love the funny typos.


In my opinion;

I don't think it's rapid, it's simply a more organized storm. Remember that a cat2/3 hurricane should look like a cat 2/3 hurricane and Gustav will now that the core is getting organized. I hope it's not rapid, I think it's modest, but I have no skill so I'll just have to watch and see.

[KWT]

949mbs extrap pressure as someone else has already mentioned, does seem like the pressure is dropping quite decently right now, will have to watch to see if that continues over the enxt few hours, if it does may herald a top end cat-3 making landfall...which is a pretty severe situation for MS and LA, esp on that eastern side of the eye.

[CronkPSU]

Wow, maybe this will cause more damage than I thought. Just earlier I was telling people that New Orleans shouldn't be affected like it was during Katrina, now I'm not so sure (although the surge still won't be as high and there's less people left behind).

it looks to be strengthening, maybe even to high cat 3 before landfall and NO will be in the NE quadrant, on paper, this could be...gulp...worse than katrina

[WxGuy1]

I do not think there is 20 knots of shear over this system right now; I believe the shear is down to around 10-12 knots, also the cyclone is moving north-northwestard with it. It has also developed a nice southern outflow channel...I expect 110 knots within 8 hours and pressures down to around 944-946 millibars.

What data do you have to support only 10-12 kts of shear near the center? The best analysis I can find is from CIMSS, and it clearly shows at least 20 kts from the center northward. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Do you have any data to back up your estimate? It does look like shear may be weakening a bit, but I still like to see some hard data before making that claim.

[masaji79]

Sure looks like it's going to be a nasty 24 hours for SELA. To say the least.

[Steve Cosby]

Did anyone see that band that just hit where Mike Bettis is? Pretty strong winds that far out.

I saw it. It almost blew him down with one gust. Cantore is more west of Slidell so he has yet to see anything, but like always. His time is coming.

Boys its time for NASCAR!

Time to just sit here and watch on the computer with the TV tuned in to what Carl Edwards might do to Kyle Busch tonight.

(sorry - just trying to lighten a bit here)

[Normandy]

LOL at my typo. Ooops.

But yes, 4 mb/hr is easily RI.

[TCmet]

But then again. 941 mb are very high for a Cat 5.

Central pressure isn't everything. It also depends on the ambient pressure as well. 941 millibars can support a Category 5 hurricane if the ambient pressure is relatively high.

Recon was showing measurements in the 930s too at that time, I believe.

[BigB0882]

That pressure just keeps dropping, getting scary!

GoneBabyGone, the local met said Baton Rouge can expect sustained winds of 50-70 with gusts around 75. This is a good estimate but with the intensification that I THINK is going on, that could be upped by 10 mph which could very well has us with sustained hurricane force winds during the peak of the storm. The extrapolated line of movement would have the center going straight over Baton Rouge, likely it will wobble here and there and perhaps take that predicted WNW turn but as of now it hasn't happened.