ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HurricaneRobert]

Was that a pinhole eye in the last visible or just a shadow?

[RainWind]

Ed Rappaport from NHC just said that Baton Rouge would have sustained hurricane force winds with gusts 90-100 mph based on the current forecasted path. He just said that about 15 minutes ago. Yes, things are starting to get scary! RW

[CrazyC83]

Officials measured gusts of 212 mph (340 kph) in the western town of Paso Real del San Diego — a new national record for maximum wind speed in a country often hit by major hurricanes, said Miguel Angel Hernandez of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

But then again. 941 mb are very high for a Cat 5.

That will probably be disregarded in the end as unrepresentative due to elevation.

[Tom8]

[Enzo Aquarius]

As a side-note, nothing significant yet on the flood meters in the southern Louisiana area.

Also, is it just me, or is that a visible eye forming?

Boys its time for NASCAR!

Thanks for reminding me.

[LAwxrgal]

LOL at my typo. Ooops.

But yes, 4 mb/hr is easily RI.

Question, I'm holed up with my laptop in a hotel room in Texas, and so I was wondering if since G is moving so quickly, maybe his winds won't have time to catch up with the pressure drops.

[mathwhizz]

There was 20kts of sheer in the caribbean and that didn't stop Gustav from getting close to Cat 5.

[GoneBabyGone]

Ed Rappaport from NHC just said that Baton Rouge would have sustained hurricane force winds with gusts 90-100 mph based on the current forecasted path. He just said that about 15 minutes ago. Yes, things are starting to get scary! RW

Sounds fun.

[CronkPSU]

still has 10 hours for the winds to catch up...probably more likely they will catch up just as the pressures start rising due to land interaction

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I do not think there is 20 knots of shear over this system right now; I believe the shear is down to around 10-12 knots, also the cyclone is moving north-northwestard with it. It has also developed a nice southern outflow channel...I expect 110 knots within 8 hours and pressures down to around 944-946 millibars.

What data do you have to support only 10-12 kts of shear near the center? The best analysis I can find is from CIMSS, and it clearly shows at least 20 kts from the center northward. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Do you have any data to back up your estimate? It does look like shear may be weakening a bit, but I still like to see some hard data before making that claim.

Cimss at times does not show shear over systems or it shows to much. It would not be strengthing like it currently is if it had 20+ knots of shear going through it. Also the southern outflow had greatly improved...NO way could that happen if there was 20+ knots of shear going through it.

[Normandy]

LOL at my typo. Ooops.

But yes, 4 mb/hr is easily RI.

Question, I'm holed up with my laptop in a hotel room in Texas, and so I was wondering if since G is moving so quickly, maybe his winds won't have time to catch up with the pressure drops.

Don't really know. Dolly rapidly deepened as it went ashore and really only gave S Texas High-End Cat1 winds, maybe some Cat2. Dolly had a really low pressure as well. Its already at 115 mph storm, and is probably producing winds close to that already. Tough to say what the final winds would be, but I ASSUME they should catch up.

[hicksta]

thats, getting stronger by the minute

[LSU2001]

Prayers to all those on the coast.

This track looks much worse on paper for me in Baton Rouge. Should I now be expecting sustained hurricane force winds?

Baton Rouge? Might want to be getting ready for this ASAP, landfall isn't far off and the outer bands are already causing trouble.

Hurricane Wind Warning
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
447 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

.AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ONTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS STARTING
TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

LAZ034>037-046>048-010300-
/O.CON.KLIX.HI.W.0001.080901T0900Z-080902T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
447 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM
CDT TUESDAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA....WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI STARTING AT 7 AM MONDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS IN THE HURRICANE WIND WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE AND PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY AS MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
MONDAY MORNING. OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE...WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO CATEGORY 1...75 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL
BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY.
MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER OUTAGES WITH NUMEROUS DOWNED WIRES AND
SOME POWER POLES PULLED DOWN. SOME LARGE TREES WILL BE
UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON SATURATED GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE
BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 730 PM CDT.

[HURAKAN]

We will have another memorable Labor Day hurricane.

[Steve Cosby]

The best analysis I can find is from CIMSS, and it clearly shows at least 20 kts from the center northward. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Something just hit me - if the shear is 20 knots from the south and the hurricane is moving NW at 17 knots would that not mean, and I'm not good at trigonometry, something likely "only" about 10 knots of effective shear?

[KWT]

4mb per hour is well within explosive intensification, granted its only one hour of obs.

Cold cloud tops still bursting in the eyewall though its become a touch distorted again and maybe open on the NE side a touch.

[Enzo Aquarius]

720 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF
GUSTAV MOVING WEST AFFECTING WASHINGTON...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA
...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. CHARLES...ASSUMPTION...ST. JAMES
...ASCENSION...ST. TAMMANY...LAFOURCHE AND TERREBONNE PARISHES AS
WELL AS PEARL RIVER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PICAYUNE TO MANDEVILLE TO METAIRIE TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GALLIANO...MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GALLIANO...DESTREHAN...CUT OFF AND COVINGTON BY 730 PM...
NORCO...NEW SARPY...LAROSE AND HAHNVILLE BY 735 PM...

[johngaltfla]

all of the optimism of the day has been shattered this evening . Nothing else needs to be said

Strongest comment I've heard in 72 hours. Well stated Derek and good work on the forecasts. We appreciate them.

[MGC]

A deepening major hurricane approaching the north Gulf Coast......I guess Gustav will dispell the thought that all major hurricanes weaken in the NGOM.....

All calm here now in Pass Christian. That squall that blew through an hour or so ago was interesting.

If the pressure drop in Gustav continues I would not be surprised to see 125-130mph at landfall.......MGC

[feederband]

Haven't paid attention to this in awhile but damn!!

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