ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

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#1661 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:47 pm

I don't think Ukmet has done the best this year with the storms. It seem to be the GFDL that has been doing the best over all so far. But that is like who you ask. every one would say not this one does better not it is this one. But all in the end it come down who was right the Gfdl or the others. I would put my money on the GFDL.JMO

Now OT on home make over tonight they are in N.O. that is weird With Gus coming in as I type.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1662 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:49 pm

The Best Track at 00:00 UTC for Hanna has no change in the winds intensity.

AL, 08, 2008090100, , BEST, 0, 237N, 719W, 40, 997, TS,
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1663 Postby captain east » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:50 pm

UKMET was the model that just changed the forecast cone because it was right about a more westernly track before turning north...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1664 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:51 pm

skufful wrote:
Jinkers wrote:
ronjon wrote:Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118


I really thought this was headed for the carolinas


That's according to the NHC, according to folks in FL, it's coming their way, and I hope (wish) they are correct. I don't want it to come my way, maybe out to sea would be best.


thats us, i have been getting pm's all day from florida residents saying gustuv is making a hard right to tampa
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1665 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:54 pm

what is that best track seeing , there is no spin up at 23.7 , Am i going mad

it looks obvious spin is just barely tucked under the northern edge of convection now around 23.3 or so. look http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

we need recon

guys when is next plane going in?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1666 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:03 pm

cpdaman wrote:what is that best track seeing , there is no spin up at 23.7 , Am i going mad

it looks obvious spin is just barely tucked under the northern edge of convection now around 23.3 or so. look http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

we need recon

guys when is next plane going in?


I think that is about right (23.7N/71.9), LLC is on the N side of convection. It's building deep convection very fast. Seems to be gaining longitude a little faster than the NHC track.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1667 Postby masaji79 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:04 pm

Where exactly is the ULL in relation to Hanna? I don't believe that I see it spinning on any satellite loops.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1668 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:08 pm

Hanna continues to organize at a fast clip this evening..Next recon should be interesting and would not be surprised to see Hurricane Hanna sometime tommorrow.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1669 Postby CourierPR » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:09 pm

Is Hanna becoming better organized?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1670 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:12 pm

masaji79 wrote:Where exactly is the ULL in relation to Hanna? I don't believe that I see it spinning on any satellite loops.


It is to the southeast of Hanna.
I just seen how she was building up. In the WILM NWC said if she makes it past 72 hours. No one else had said that not even NHC. that I know of. But she build herself next to the ULL so she has to have a lot in her to do so and has lasted this long with the ULL. now that the ULL is moving out of the oic. this should help her. I seen her go north a tap a wobble. With thoes # it is going WNW. Will It is going to be a long day Monday. So Later all. Over to Gus for a while.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1671 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:14 pm

CourierPR wrote:Is Hanna becoming better organized?


Yes, to some degree. Convection is consolidating into what appears to be a sheared CDO type pattern.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1672 Postby caneman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:16 pm

AJC3,

what is your best guess to where LLC is? DOes it look like it has had a West or WSW motion for the last several hours?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1673 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:20 pm

masaji79 wrote:Where exactly is the ULL in relation to Hanna? I don't believe that I see it spinning on any satellite loops.



There really doesn't appear to be much to it anymore. It doesn't show up very well on either WV imagery or the upper streamline analyses. Right now, the shear is more of function of the flow on the back side of the upper anticyclone (high) associated with Gustav.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1674 Postby masaji79 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:20 pm

With Hanna building in such a hostile environment this evening, makes me worry about the next few days. Should be interesting what will happen to her as she pulls away from the ULL and Gustav heads inland. I'm tired and we're only halfway through the season :eek:
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#1675 Postby bahamaswx » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:23 pm

Indeed. She's finally trying to consolidate convection over the center.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1676 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:23 pm

caneman wrote:AJC3,

what is your best guess to where LLC is? DOes it look like it has had a West or WSW motion for the last several hours?


I can't tell for sure, even with IR2 imagery...we need Christopher Walken to crack the whip. :-) However, based on what I see, and the 8PM NHC position of 23.5N 71.6W, it's still pretty close to the north edge of the ball of convection.

As I've said before many times on here, TC's will 'try' to maintain or acquire a coherent vertical structure, which means the LLC will often times try to 'tuck in' beneath the deeper convection downshear.
Last edited by AJC3 on Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#1677 Postby tgenius » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:25 pm

So would it be safe to say regardless of a direct landfall in SFL or not that the conditions will be a bit crummy Thur/Fri? Quite possible that SFL would be under Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings no?
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Re:

#1678 Postby captain east » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:26 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Indeed. She's finally trying to consolidate convection over the center.

Where is the center though???
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#1679 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:28 pm

take a look at this. No reason Why she couldn't become a BIG HurricaneJMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg
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Re: Re:

#1680 Postby bahamaswx » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:32 pm

captain east wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:Indeed. She's finally trying to consolidate convection over the center.

Where is the center though???


Pretty hard to pinpoint it on sat. imagery, but continuity would put it just to the north of the recent blowup, consistent with the shear blowing the convection off to the south.
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