ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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RL3AO
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#9201 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:24 pm

0803 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 9 E LIVINGSTON 30.50N 90.59W
08/31/2008 LIVINGSTON LA EMERGENCY MNGR

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9202 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:25 pm

Sanibel....FWIW....Landfall on the NHC track is NOT Lafayette. Come on. The path may go over it but I was in Lafayette last week and it was NOT ocated where it's being show where NHC is forecasting landfall (or on their 'line').
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9203 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:25 pm

Can someone help me with this....Click on the below link and tell me if that's an eye that's actually finally showing up above the reds, or if that's just a pocket of dry air? Wouldn't the eye be closer to the center of the reds? Thanks in advance!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg


EDIT: NEVERMIND the last frame just updated and whatever it was wasn't the eye because it filled in on the last frame...
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9204 Postby soonertwister » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:25 pm

Texashawk wrote:
soonertwister wrote:I guess it might be mentioned now that the strongest forecast landfall for Gustav was when he was cat-5 south of Cuba.

That's only 15 kts above where he is now.

And now Fox suggests that Gustav may hit near Lake Charles, or even on the Texas coast. I think that's a ridiculous assertion to make based upon one particular new model run.



That would be a disaster if that happened, since we (Houston) have basically done nothing in the way of evac and it's way, way, way, way too late now.


Gustav is a big hurricane with an enormous mass traveleing NW/NNW as 16 mph. What do you think the chances are? I think they aren't zero, but they are close enough that you can sleep well tonight.

The NHC track hasn't varied 50 miles at landfall in almost two full days. Latest reliable track consensus was clustered across a width of maybe thirty miles in the middle LA coast. He's smoking dope.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9205 Postby ekal » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:26 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
ekal wrote:
Unfortunately, even New Orleans is probably not 100% evacuated. There are people who have stayed for whatever reason (or lack thereof). I have not heard any official estimates, but I would be surprised if the official evac percentage is higher than 90-95%.

Granted, that 5-10% probably is not waiting for the SPC to issue a watch.


Last I heard it was 90% but these are unofficial numbers. They were saying that with the growth in the Homeless rate in N.O. that its really not possible to know the exact percent but from what they could see it was about 90%


I remember seeing hundreds of homeless in NOLA during Christmas of last year living under the overpasses. I hope, desperately, that they have found/been given shelter.
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#9206 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:27 pm

Looking likely Houma is going to take the biggest blow, they are pretty much at sea level and with the system tracking WNW or NW the surge is going to come way inland, expect terrible scenes there, I'd also expect cat-2 winds there as well.
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#9207 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:28 pm

Image

Eye becoming more visible in radar.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9208 Postby southerngale » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:Is there ANY WAY to turn off this "New Post Review" feature? I can't even reply to a message here any more tonight as each time I hit "Submit" it tells me that a new post has been made while I was typing and asks if I want to read it before replying. Took me 20 hits of "Submit" last time to get my post in. You people are posting too fast to let a new message in.


We'll check into it.
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#9209 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:31 pm

011630 2736N 08805W 7696 02102 9789 +160 +160 079096 100 076 010 00
011700 2734N 08804W 7686 02105 9776 +165 +165 082095 100 077 004 03

100 knots FL in the NW quadrant. Lets see the NE quadrant.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9210 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:31 pm

southerngale wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Is there ANY WAY to turn off this "New Post Review" feature? I can't even reply to a message here any more tonight as each time I hit "Submit" it tells me that a new post has been made while I was typing and asks if I want to read it before replying. Took me 20 hits of "Submit" last time to get my post in. You people are posting too fast to let a new message in.


We'll check into it.


Thank you, it can be, indeed, annoying. :P
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#9211 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:33 pm

Wall of rain now moving into LA now as well. Current motion suggests Terrebonne, Houma is going to get hammered, I do think they are going to get wind gusts upto 110mph I reckon, maybe even closer 115mph.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9212 Postby Enzo Aquarius » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:33 pm

Baton Rouge-area Tornado Warning has now been cancelled.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9213 Postby soonertwister » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:34 pm

Bunkertor wrote:Anyone an idea what those blinking lights mean ?

http://www.nola.com/bridgecam/index.ssf


The blinking lights are there to tell sleepy or drunk ships' pilots that if they continue to proceed, they won't work in the industry anymore. Not after they take out the bridge while it's down. Oh, and they'll probably go to jail and be very poor the rest of their lives.

It's a commercial shipping channel. They have to warn these guys with BIG lights. Those bridges are darned expensive.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9214 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:35 pm

Based upon Satellite Presentation, Getting Into Cool Waters, what the NHC is saying, and only several hours left until landfall, I'm feeling more confident by the hour saying that strengthening is NOT going to happen. The satellite signature started to look good for about 2 hours or so, was making the fist etc,,,,but now that's leveled off...... I give it credit though. It doesn't appear to be weakening either...looks like a 115 mph or perhaps slightly lower at landfall......
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9215 Postby Innotech » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:35 pm

that huge outer band will be approaching Lafayette shortly. We had one earlier but not too bad.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9216 Postby masaji79 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:37 pm

At 115mph looks like Gustav will be the strongest landfalling US hurricane since Wilma in 2005.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9217 Postby GoneBabyGone » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:37 pm

Wind picking up in baton rouge. Clouds look ominous.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9218 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:37 pm

I hate that post review thing, it slows my computer down.

I was looking at the advisorys for Katrina in the max tropical storm winds went out 230 nmi, this is already has tropical storm force winds out 220 nmi. The difference is hurricane force winds, Katrina 120 nmi, while this 70 nmi. This is a big storm.
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Re: Cat 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#9219 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:37 pm

soonertwister wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:Anyone an idea what those blinking lights mean ?

http://www.nola.com/bridgecam/index.ssf


The blinking lights are there to tell sleepy or drunk ships' pilots that if they continue to proceed, they won't work in the industry anymore. Not after they take out the bridge while it's down. Oh, and they'll probably go to jail and be very poor the rest of their lives.

It's a commercial shipping channel. They have to warn these guys with BIG lights. Those bridges are darned expensive.


Ah, OK. Some Captains are very familiar with liquor..
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#9220 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:38 pm

CZ, best track suggests 105kts so that will probably be where the next advisory comes in, after that though I think it'll probably hold steady right upto landfall I guess but really who knows!
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