ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Enzo Aquarius]

I don't think 12 inches of rain is going to be able to come close to the 20+ feet of water that inundated New Orleans the last time. I just don't think the storm has the surge to topple the levee's, in my entirely unprofessional opinion.

As the Levees are basically brand new and untested (from what I've heard), looks like Gustav will be the 'experiment' with them.

[ekal]

The latest CIMSS upper-level wind shear analysis continues to indicate at least 20 kts of shear over the center, courtesy of still-strong southerly flow atop nearly the entire storm. Between that and the dry air, it may explain why Gustav has yet to have a persistent, visible eye, despite the 3-4 different attempts it has had today. It seems that strong convection would wrap around the center, some warming would show up on IR, but such a feature would very quickly deform and fill back in. The timing may help a bit given cloud-top radiational cooling (a la the typical nocturnal convective maximum), but the shear and nearby dry air appears to be preventing significant intensification.

Thank you for contributing that analysis. I have a question about the dry air. How did it get entrained into the circulation? Looking at both UL and ML water vapor loops, there has been little evidence over the past 24-48 hours of any dry air in the immediate environment, yet subsidence is clearly a problem for this storm in the NE quadrant. I guess what I mean to ask is -- Are we in need of some better tools for detecting atmospheric water vapor content (in the layer that is meaningful for tropical cyclones)?

[HarlequinBoy]

I think the levees will hold.


I do think the parishes southwest of New Orleans are going to see pretty extensive damage though.

[CoCo2]

Anyone an idea what those blinking lights mean ?

http://www.nola.com/bridgecam/index.ssf

Some of the red lights are cell phone tower warning lights and some of the red lights are warning lights (to planes) on top of the Crescent City Connection (Mississippi River Bridge). The Bridge cam faces from Downtown New Orleans towards Gretna, Louisiana or the Westbank of the River.

[tailgater]

Could one of the pro's tell me if there is a chance of Gus tightening it's wind field as it interacts with the coast as they sometimes do with storms along the Texas coast.

[HURAKAN]

From baby to mature!

[TCmet]

Unfortunately, even New Orleans is probably not 100% evacuated. There are people who have stayed for whatever reason (or lack thereof). I have not heard any official estimates, but I would be surprised if the official evac percentage is higher than 90-95%.

Granted, that 5-10% probably is not waiting for the SPC to issue a watch.

Last I heard it was 90% but these are unofficial numbers. They were saying that with the growth in the Homeless rate in N.O. that its really not possible to know the exact percent but from what they could see it was about 90%

I remember seeing hundreds of homeless in NOLA during Christmas of last year living under the overpasses. I hope, desperately, that they have found/been given shelter.

My wife works for Unity of Greater New Orleans (unitygno.com). All the homeless they work with (a few hundred - they had responsibility for the Claiborne overpass camp) were directed toward official city/parish evacuation staging areas. Everyone in the system should be taken care of. But there are many that are not in the system.

[Dean4Storms]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 876 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GMZ530-550-555-630-650-655-730-750-755-011200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0876.080901T0150Z-080901T1200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

MOBILE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM

$$
ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...

[TexasSam]

Have been glued to this site for years for sanity and divergent opinions. Keep up the good work and all should continue their prayers for the folks in Lower Lafourche, Terrebonne, And St. Mary Parish. Many fond memories of Fourchon, Cote Blanche Bay and Cypremore Point.

FYI Houstonians can watch WWL-TV coverage on Comcast Channel 310 KHOU, just like with Katrina. I think it is Digital channel 11.2. First time I thought I had something to contribute

Great thanks, new use for my digital converter box. 11.2

[masaji79]

Looks like one of the first heavy rainbands is about to rotate ashore.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Enzo Aquarius]

From baby to mature!

And to think, a month ago or so it started out as a little cloud or a collection of water droplets. Weather is quite amazing.

[cpdaman]

pressure appears to have stop dropping which also co-incides with a appearance that is not as full and round of a CDO

lowest pressure per recon appears about 953

i think that the she is done enjoy the lag effect from loop current

and unless there is some kind of jet max she is riding , we may see a low end 3 IMO

[Dean4Storms]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 876 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MSC039-045-047-059-109-131-011200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0876.080901T0150Z-080901T1200Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GEORGE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON PEARL RIVER STONE
$$



TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 876 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC003-097-011200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0876.080901T0150Z-080901T1200Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN MOBILE
$$



TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 876 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-
095-103-105-109-117-121-125-011200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0876.080901T0150Z-080901T1200Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
$$



TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 876 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-011200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0876.080901T0150Z-080901T1200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA
FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$

[HurricaneHunter914]

From baby to mature!

And to think, a month ago or so it started out as a little cloud or a collection of water droplets. Weather is quite amazing.

Could someone point out the eye to me? Is it the yellow area in the center or the blue area to the north of that?

[HarlequinBoy]

Why hasn't the Houma ob updated since last night?

[LSU2001]

I don't think 12 inches of rain is going to be able to come close to the 20+ feet of water that inundated New Orleans the last time. I just don't think the storm has the surge to topple the levee's, in my entirely unprofessional opinion.

The west bank levees which will bear the brunt of the surge in the NOLA area are not nearly as tall as the east bank levees which failed during Katrina. In addition the West Bank levees have not yet been armored nor reinforced. In fact the harvey canal portion has gaps in the levees due to corps of engineers construction. While the city proper may not see the devastation that they saw with katrin the west bank, which was largely spared, will see considerable surge flooding.
JMHO,
Tim

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Enzo Aquarius]

From baby to mature!

And to think, a month ago or so it started out as a little cloud or a collection of water droplets. Weather is quite amazing.

Could someone point out the eye to me?

Orange area in the middle of the red, the dry air area (blue) can, understandably, cause confusion.

[Weatherfreak000]

108kts from latest recon....that comes out to I believe 123.5 or 124 Mph?


Either way....it made quite a run for Cat. 4....and it's still possible.

[desertrat75]

Uhh, yeah. These morons are in Houma, getting drunk and webcasting. Warning: not safe for work or children.

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

[drezee]

108kts from latest recon....that comes out to I believe 123.5 or 124 Mph?


Either way....it made quite a run for Cat. 4....and it's still possible.

LAst pass was 111kts

015700 2732N 08758W 7620 02073 9655 +164 +164 090102 105 096 035 00
015730 2730N 08759W 7531 02153 9616 +171 +171 101101 111 100 014 03