ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

108kts from latest recon....that comes out to I believe 123.5 or 124 Mph?


Either way....it made quite a run for Cat. 4....and it's still possible.

Is that 108 surface or flight level?

[wxman57]

108kts from latest recon....that comes out to I believe 123.5 or 124 Mph?


Either way....it made quite a run for Cat. 4....and it's still possible.

You're looking at peak FLIGHT LEVEL winds, not surface winds. Sustained FL winds 105 kts

[wxman57]

LAst pass was 111kts

015700 2732N 08758W 7620 02073 9655 +164 +164 090102 105 096 035 00
015730 2730N 08759W 7531 02153 9616 +171 +171 101101 111 100 014 03

I think the FL winds were 101 gusting 111 kts.

[RainWind]

Recon is having a bumpy flight!

[Cape Verde]

Well, let's fasten our seatbelts. I'm really not much of a believer in prayer. Bad stuff happens to good people regardless.

But it can't hurt.

So I'll lift a little silent one, and hope for the best. It's fun to track and analyze these storms unitl it becomes personal.

It's about to become personal. Not so much to me in Houston, although I may get some residual effects.

It's about to hit America. Americans are about to get clobbered. And that's personal to me.

[Weatherfreak000]

I see, thanks for the clarification Wxman!



I suppose we'll see a 120-125 Mph upgrade then at 10...recon is still in of course so we'll see.

[WxGuy1]

I guess what I mean to ask is -- Are we in need of some better tools for detecting atmospheric water vapor content (in the layer that is meaningful for tropical cyclones)?

Some precipitable water graphics -- such as THIS ONE from DMSP SSM/I and THIS ONE from AMSU -- show some of the drier air in the western Gulf that one can see on Water Vapor satellite imagery. In addition, the 00Z soundings from this evening from places such as CRP and BRO sampled air with only ~1.35" of precipitable water, which is not particularly moist or high for a Gulf of Mexico station. LCH sampled higher precipitable water, but that's not surprising since it looks like the driest air is south of there. Of course, it's common to get subsidence and some drying on the outer edges of significant tropical cyclones, but there's some dry air there nonethless. WV imagery showed some of that drier air advected around the south then east side of the storm. In addition, visible sat data showed some signs that dry air was being advected closer to the center this afternoon, though that doesnt appear to be the case now.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think 12 inches of rain is going to be able to come close to the 20+ feet of water that inundated New Orleans the last time. I just don't think the storm has the surge to topple the levee's, in my entirely unprofessional opinion.

The west bank levees which will bear the brunt of the surge in the NOLA area are not nearly as tall as the east bank levees which failed during Katrina. In addition the West Bank levees have not yet been armored nor reinforced. In fact the harvey canal portion has gaps in the levees due to corps of engineers construction. While the city proper may not see the devastation that they saw with katrin the west bank, which was largely spared, will see considerable surge flooding.
JMHO,
Tim

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

Tim is correct. Also one must remember that Gustav has strong winds all across the Eastern GOM(a very long fetch) already helping push water into the MRGO and other Bays and Lake P. The levees will be pressured on all sides but especially from the the S and SE. To top that off NO and most of Southern LA is going to be on the stronger side of the storm wind wise also. This is not a good scenario at all. MAny prayers going out for all in the path and ESPECIALLY FOR THE MANY MEMBERS STORM2K HAS THAT ARE IN DANGERS WAY from Gustav.

[cpdaman]

wave heights on bouy 64 miles south of daulphin island have climbed VERY RAPIDLY

at 6 CDT they were 12 feet
at 9 CDT (now) they are 25.4 feet

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

highest winds are still well south of that as well


also bouy SE of pensacola the wave heights are 25 feet as well.

[masaji79]

How often will NHC issue updates as Gustav draws closer? Will they all be issued in CDT?

[Sanibel]

You can see on IR that Gus pulled in tighter into a better circular structure but then had the tops warm over cooler water.

[fasterdisaster]

How often will NHC issue updates as Gustav draws closer? Will they all be issued in CDT?

1. Every 2 hours
2. Yes

[Weatherfreak000]

Per the latest satellite image the coldest cloud tops appear to be expanding from the SW and trying to wrap around the system. The dry air intrusion on the NE side appears to also be filling in.


Still intensifying. My hands are shaking so badly I can hardly type this.

[RL3AO]

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
961mb (Surface) 50° (from the NE) 80 knots (92 mph)
959mb 45° (from the NE) 79 knots (91 mph)
955mb 45° (from the NE) 95 knots (109 mph)
949mb 50° (from the NE) 109 knots (125 mph)
943mb 60° (from the ENE) 110 knots (127 mph)
935mb 55° (from the NE) 121 knots (139 mph)
927mb 60° (from the ENE) 113 knots (130 mph)
920mb 60° (from the ENE) 115 knots (132 mph)
912mb 65° (from the ENE) 108 knots (124 mph)
893mb 70° (from the ENE) 109 knots (125 mph)
870mb 75° (from the ENE) 119 knots (137 mph)
829mb 85° (from the E) 106 knots (122 mph)
809mb 80° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
751mb 105° (from the ESE) 89 knots (102 mph)

Anything unusually about the winds being that much stronger just below flight level?

[fasterdisaster]

I don't understand. Is this storm strengthening or not?

[CrazyC83]

Once the eye is visible on radar, then we start to see advisories every 2 hours and position estimates every hour.

[superfly]

I don't understand. Is this storm strengthening or not?

Doesn't look like it, not weakening either though.

[physicx07]

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
961mb (Surface) 50° (from the NE) 80 knots (92 mph)
959mb 45° (from the NE) 79 knots (91 mph)
955mb 45° (from the NE) 95 knots (109 mph)
949mb 50° (from the NE) 109 knots (125 mph)
943mb 60° (from the ENE) 110 knots (127 mph)
935mb 55° (from the NE) 121 knots (139 mph)
927mb 60° (from the ENE) 113 knots (130 mph)
920mb 60° (from the ENE) 115 knots (132 mph)
912mb 65° (from the ENE) 108 knots (124 mph)
893mb 70° (from the ENE) 109 knots (125 mph)
870mb 75° (from the ENE) 119 knots (137 mph)
829mb 85° (from the E) 106 knots (122 mph)
809mb 80° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
751mb 105° (from the ESE) 89 knots (102 mph)

Anything unusually about the winds being that much stronger just below flight level?

I think the winds are usually supposed to be strongest around 925mb level. The FL to surface reduction value is greatest for that level (I think .75)

I think it IS unusual to have the max at 800. The reduction value is lower for 850 and 700 than for 925.

[ekal]

My wife works for Unity of Greater New Orleans (unitygno.com). All the homeless they work with (a few hundred - they had responsibility for the Claiborne overpass camp) were directed toward official city/parish evacuation staging areas. Everyone in the system should be taken care of. But there are many that are not in the system.

It is comforting to know that a meaningful effort was made. I do not think that could be said for the hours preceding Katrina.

If one aspect of the past three years has been heartwarming, it is the depth of human compassion that has emerged in the relief efforts in NOLA, most of which have been launched by local humanitarian organizations. I went with about 30 other students from FSU last Christmas to rebuild homes in NOLA through a wonderful program sponsored by the United Methodist Church. I know many appreciate the work your wife is doing in what is still a beautiful city, despite the struggle it continues to endure.

[Just Joshing You]

I don't think it is strengthening much at the moment.