ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Eye gets better, than it loses some organization. Good thing, I think.




10:45 pm CDT image.


I lived on Kaliste Saloom and Feu Follet in Lafayette, and worked in Broussard for Baker Hughes and New Iberia for Halliburton. I got lots of friends in Lafayette and vicinity. I hope they do ok.

[ConvergenceZone]

I definitely expect to see a much stronger storm when I wake up tomorrow. Probably not Cat 4 but up in the 130 mph range. Tomorrow is gonna be interesting over here, so I need to get what sleep I can. G'night all.

Ya know, I don't think I've changed my mind so many times as I have with Gustav. It's driving me crazy!!!! When it suppose have strengthened this morning and afternoon, it didn't....Now it's over cooler waters and it LOOKS LIKE it's strengthening again....This last hour has been the FIRST time all day long that the eye has popped out on IR satellite.....

I'm not going to say what it's going to do now, because it's just going to do the opposite anyway, so why bother....

[Evac3]

Did y'all just see the guy on CNN say (and draw?) that the center is "226 miles DUE SOUTH of New Orleans"?

[Derek Ortt]

the southerly shear may be increasing, but too late to cause significant weakening

time to get an hour or two nap

[fasterdisaster]

Eye gets better, than it loses some organization. Good thing, I think.

No it doesn't, the eye is slightly less round but the CDO is rounder into all frames.

[mattpetre]

Did y'all just see the guy on CNN say (and draw?) that the center is "226 miles DUE SOUTH of New Orleans"?

Seriously? Well that's a map projection that shouldn't be used for weather forecasting for sure

[Innotech]

like I said, its channeling Epsilon. The hurricane that just wouldnt die and strengthened against all odds.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Did anyone see Jim C. standing in front of a boat in Houma? There was a family with children that plan to ride out the storm on the boat. When asked why they were staying on the boat, the parents said because the kids wanted to. Jim looked so mad that he was about to cry. How can people be so stupid?

Sometimes I wonder about these people...

Very stupid in deed, I know many family and friends who decided to ride this out. Now, we are in Tx worried about them. But we can only save those who want to be saved! Ya'll can check out conditions on Htv (Houma's tv station) website for the time being anyway. http://www.kfolkjun.com/htv/WatchNow/tabid/54/Default.aspx

[infonut]

Did anyone see Jim C. standing in front of a boat in Houma? There was a family with children that plan to ride out the storm on the boat. When asked why they were staying on the boat, the parents said because the kids wanted to. Jim looked so mad that he was about to cry. How can people be so stupid?

Sometimes I wonder about these people...

I hope this is just your sick imagination and joking (I believe you 100%, humor me)

But that entire family, including the children, deserve the Darwin Award for excellency and self ownage.

The kids are going to be in a steel-hull boat and the adults are in a fiberglass-hull boat.

Have to say a special prayer for the kids..

[Innotech]

they might be ok. depends on how big the boat is and how much it floods in Houma.

[WxGuy1]

Classic developing eye with deep minus 80 convection wraping around it. If this is not strengthing then I'm lossing it. It could be getting some mid level shear in which would effect the lower levels.

The latest IR and WV imagery indicate that the eye is now deforming, much as the previous attempts at eyes have done today. It looks like it has more of a comma-shaped appearance, as if that eye is rotating around a different center of circulation. I have to think Gustav's yet inability to establish a persistent eye is a function of the moderate (~20 kts) shear over the storm, and the effect of the shear on the dry air that's occassionally been wrapped up into Gustav. I just can't see any strengthening beyond 5-10 mph in winds, but, as others have said, hurricanes are rarely completely predictable. I think Gustav does have a chance to intensify a tad (again, 5-10 mph, IMO) if that eye can maintain itself.

See http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... e&itype=ir for images that update more frequently that those available via the NHC / SSD page.

[fasterdisaster]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

It really looks like IMO it's on a current heading toward the western end of Pontchartrain.

[MHurricanes]

I have not been able to monitor Gustav all day, but this is first time I've seen a clearly defined eye since landfall in Cuba. But who knows, perhaps it won't last and perhaps it means nothing. Heck, I'm not an expert.

- MHurricanes

[Texas Snowman]

MHurricanes,

I see a storm trying to strengthen. I'll be the first to admit that it has some challenges, but this storm has been very resilient in its life history, so I don't know why it would stop now.

Thing that worries me, in addition to the overall look of the storm (organizing) is that pinhole eye. If convection is able to wrap and sustain itself, in my totally unofficial opinion, this could be a 135 mph at landfall.

Of course, the eye may be gone in an hour the way Gus has gone today.

And I agree, it appears to be heading to the west end of Ponch. Any ideas on what that track would do storm surge wise?

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey, isn't the satellite Eclipse coming up? I know that every night there's about 2 hours or so where they don't update the satellite photos. Does anyone know when that begins and ends? Doesn't it start in about an hour or so?

[gboudx]

Can it really strengthen so close to land? Met on WDSU said that since bands are rotating over land now, that this isn't the best setup for intensification. And that there may be weakening down to Cat 2 before landfall. Thoughts?

[Texas Snowman]

Well, Claudette and Dolly both strengthened pretty much up until landfall, but then again the shape of the Texas coast does help storms "tighten up" on landfall sometimes.

No expert, but given this storm's history (intensified heading into Isle of Pines/Cuba, correct?) I would think that this could slowly intensify up until landfall.

[RL3AO]

It officially weakened below a category 3 earlier today as the NHC has updated the running best track to indicate it was a 95kt category 2 earlier this afternoon.

AL, 07, 2008083118, , BEST, 0, 259N, 867W, 95, 960, HU, 34, NEQ, 175, 140, 120, 150, 1008, 275, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GUSTAV, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 300, 150, 180
AL, 07, 2008083118, , BEST, 0, 259N, 867W, 95, 960, HU, 50, NEQ, 120, 75, 60, 75, 1008, 275, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GUSTAV, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 300, 150, 180
AL, 07, 2008083118, , BEST, 0, 259N, 867W, 95, 960, HU, 64, NEQ, 55, 30, 25, 30, 1008, 275, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GUSTAV, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 300, 150, 180v

[Innotech]

sure, storms can easily intensify close to land. SOmetimes land interaction makes them wrap tighter, or so it seems. Im not sure if Gustav will or not.

[mattpetre]

Did anyone see Jim C. standing in front of a boat in Houma? There was a family with children that plan to ride out the storm on the boat. When asked why they were staying on the boat, the parents said because the kids wanted to. Jim looked so mad that he was about to cry. How can people be so stupid?

Sometimes I wonder about these people...

Very stupid in deed, I know many family and friends who decided to ride this out. Now, we are in Tx worried about them. But we can only save those who want to be saved! Ya'll can check out conditions on Htv (Houma's tv station) website for the time being anyway. http://www.kfolkjun.com/htv/WatchNow/tabid/54/Default.aspx

Well, I have to make this one comment regarding behaviour during a storm. I fell even more in love with watching weather/storms/hurricanes after the 24 hr TWC came out back in the late 80s, but I also see an alarming trend that I think has only been promoted by media outlets. People like attention, people like fame, people like being important; however people generally are afraid of pain, injury, dying. I think the way TWC and other television outlets handle storms is sometimes much more irresponsible than a few OT or somewhat degrading posts that occur on S2K. I mean, how can a reporter stand on a street corner in N.O. talking about how "crazy" the winds are during a tornado warning and legitimately ask people to please go to the lowest possible floor and most interior room of the building they are in? People follow behaviour based on the punishment/reward system. We need to stop rewarding crazy reporting behaviour... OR we need to stop saying that people that do risky things during storms deserve a DARWIN award. Seriously, saying that Jim Cantore deserves a Darwin Award could get me in trouble here, but not saying that about this family? Sure the kids don't deserve to be put in danger, but the fact that reporter after reporter has chosen the same "sort" of behaviour makes those that don't know as much make BAD decisions. Agree?