ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

To be fair the north Gulf Coast usually (USUALLY) serves to weaken storms a little before landfall (Dennis, Ivan, Katrina, Rita) but this doesn't seem to be paying attention to that.

[Stormcenter]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

It really looks like IMO it's on a current heading toward the western end of Pontchartrain.

Now that I have to see. Hey who knows crazier things have happened and Lake Pontchartrain
is in the warning area.

[O Town]

[MHurricanes]

MHurricanes,

I see a storm trying to strengthen. I'll be the first to admit that it has some challenges, but this storm has been very resilient in its life history, so I don't know why it would stop now.

Thing that worries me, in addition to the overall look of the storm (organizing) is that pinhole eye. If convection is able to wrap and sustain itself, in my totally unofficial opinion, this could be a 135 mph at landfall.

Of course, the eye may be gone in an hour the way Gus has gone today.

And I agree, it appears to be heading to the west end of Ponch. Any ideas on what that track would do storm surge wise?

Texas, I feel unqualified to answer your question about the precise area of landfall. Having said that, I've felt all along that this storm would go east of the predicted landing point. Again, I'm not an expert; just a mere novice expressing a humble opinion.

- MHurricanes

[Brent]

Hey, isn't the satellite Eclipse coming up? I know that every night there's about 2 hours or so where they don't update the satellite photos. Does anyone know when that begins and ends? Doesn't it start in about an hour or so?

Started already and lasts til about 2:30am ET

[Stormcenter]

To be fair the north Gulf Coast usually (USUALLY) serves to weaken storms a little before landfall (Dennis, Ivan, Katrina, Rita) but this doesn't seem to be paying attention to that.

It is starting (again) to.

[cpdaman]

the southerly shear may be increasing, but too late to cause significant weakening

time to get an hour or two nap

i'm going to take a "satelite eclipse" nap for two hours....as well

[Texas Snowman]

Whoa, D-Vo is looking pretty impressive. Not that I know how to read them, of course.

[Innotech]

my mom is freaking out again because the newscasters keep saying this will be the worst hurricane Lafayette has experienced in some time.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm sorry but anyone who thinks this is weakening right now is nuts.

[fasterdisaster]

Sorry stormcenter, should've been clearer, I don't expect it to pass over Pontchartrain but I'm just pointing out how it has yet to make a west turn.

[Stormcenter]

Go west-nw Gustav?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Normandy]

Recon is going to be very telling. Radar presentation looks excellent.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm sorry but anyone who thinks this is weakening right now is nuts.

Eye looks worse than half an hour ago, but area of colder than -70º C cloud tops expanding last couple of hours, even if top winds aren't climbing, I'd unofficially guess area of hurricane force winds are expanding.

[Texas Snowman]

FD,

I agree with you - I sure do not see any signs of weakening at the moment.

Eye has popped, convection wrapping around eye, and I haven't heard any reports of pressure going up this evening.

It may not be strengthening much, but I don't think it's weakened appreciably this evening either.

[fasterdisaster]

Are we getting two hour updates yet?

[Sanibel]

Pressure rises, shear, and cooler waters should put the hold on any significant intensity increases.

[fasterdisaster]

OMG!!!

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

Latest frame shows a slightly oblong but distinct eye in much more symmetric convection.

[Dean4Storms]

He has taken a good jog to the WNW.

[fasterdisaster]

Pressure rises, shear, and cooler waters should put the hold on any significant intensity increases.

Significant yes, but I wouldn't put it past Gustav to ramp up 5-10 mph with his latest presentation.