ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

Ed,

I agree, a bit premature to be making such a pronouncement.

I vividly remember 8/29/08 in the early to mid afternoon as Shepherd Smith was strolling down Bourbon Street saying that New Orleans appeared to have dodged a bullet. I think some others were making similar pronouncments...all the while as people were beginning to fight for their lives and the bowl was filling up.

Tomorrow night, we'll know what the outcome is.

Right now, no way.

I remember that vividly as well. I'd known for hours that there were levee failures in progress and that a lot of NOLA was on borrowed time. It was just so interesting to see total drunks in the Quarter talk about how Katrina wasn't **** as they staggered around in the street.

I've since repeatedly imagined those drunk partygoers being woken up in their hotel room sometime in the afternoon next day by the heat, and gradually discovering no ventilation, no water, no plumbing, no electricity, no elevator, no police, and hell just about to begin.

They got the lesson of their lives.

[HarlequinBoy]

Ed,

I agree, a bit premature to be making such a pronouncement.

I vividly remember 8/29/08 in the early to mid afternoon as Shepherd Smith was strolling down Bourbon Street saying that New Orleans appeared to have dodged a bullet. I think some others were making similar pronouncments...all the while as people were beginning to fight for their lives and the bowl was filling up.

Tomorrow night, we'll know what the outcome is.

Right now, no way.

Yeah, I remember that too. But at the time it did seem that way.

[Stormcenter]

Is it a true turn or a wobble - time will tell.

Man that is one west wobble if it's just that. As you said time will tell.

[SoupBone]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes[/quote]


Still looks NW to me headed right to Houma.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, the last few radar frames do show a westerly motion. Will it hold or will Gus go back to a NNW movement?

Fascinating storm.

[Dean4Storms]

Radar here shows the turn pretty well........


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...COASTAL REGIONS OF
AL/MS...SERN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...

VALID 010454Z - 010700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 876 CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLULAR TORNADOES FCST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY
DURING REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GRADUAL NWWD
SHIFT OCCURS IN ENVELOPE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR NNW-ENE OF
CENTER...SHIFTING THREAT AREA INLAND AT OBLIQUE ANGLE FROM FL
PANHANDLE TOWARD SERN LA. VWP TRENDS BEAR THIS OUT...WITH STEADY
GROWTH IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE NOTED SINCE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS REGION. 0-1 KM SRH 300-700 J/KG SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS
WW THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...WITH SOME DECREASE POSSIBLE OVER ERN
PORTION FL PANHANDLE AS CENTER OF GUSTAV PASSES ABEAM...THEN FARTHER
AWAY...FROM THAT AREA.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL AXIS ALONG COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY
WWD...JUST OFFSHORE MOB AND CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...LEADING TO NARROW
CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUT STILL MRGL BUOYANCY...WITH
MLCAPES 150-400 J/KG. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION IN THIS
AIR MASS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH RISK OF A FEW
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE MARINE AIR MASS
WILL MAINTAIN MOST UNSTABLE AIR IN COUNTERBALANCE TO SLOW DIABATIC
SFC COOLING. OUTER BANDS AND DISCRETE CELLS WITH MOST FAVORABLE
REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE CENTRAL-WRN PORTIONS FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH 08Z...AND INNER-BAND SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME SERN LA IN ADVANCE OF EYEWALL.

..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2008


ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29008915 29088925 28928941 29078938 29228949 29318989
29159007 29029042 29069056 29039083 29099102 29149090
29259126 29279114 29389122 29549126 29649111 30009126
30509170 30919172 31018931 30918930 30898887 31008882
30998839 31148835 31158794 31318776 31258758 31008758
30968500 30328469 30288407 30118403 29818359 30068418
30028437 29898438 29598498 29718537 29888545 30308603
30388664 30198801 30188847 30188891 29978880 29668893
29358920 29258910 29148889 28998901

[fasterdisaster]

WWL-TV 4 (Channel 310 in HOU) suggesting that NOLA, especially West Bank, has avoided a complete catastrophe because Gustav didn't become a Cat 4 as predicted.


A tad premature, IMHO, but I hope they're right...

No....the waters/conditions are just not there to support a Ca.4 IMO. Now of course I've been known to be wrong before so
I wouldn't be a penny on that.

I'm not saying it will be a Category 4, I'm saying it's stupid to say NO has avoided catastrophe.

[Janie2006]

Dropsonde: 955mb

Pressure holding steady if not actually rising a millibar or so.

[Stormcenter]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Still looks NW to me headed right to Houma.[/quote]

Are you sure? It sure likes wnw to my VERY tired eyes.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[swbamadude]

No it still looks like a NW movement to me. Jus my opinion

[fasterdisaster]

Dropsonde: 955mb

Pressure holding steady if not actually rising a millibar or so.

It fell a millibar.

[smw1981]

Hi y'all...I'm new but have been hovering over the forum for a few days now. I live on the Bay in Point Clear Al, which is on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay. For a few days now my husband and I have gone from concerned, to really worried, and now for the past 12 hrs we were feeling okay. My sister, in B'Ham just called and said that there is a wobble to the north that might bring it in further east than expected??? If this is true then we are extremely concerned because the first floor of our home was flooded during Katrina....we rode out because the focus was on NOLA, as it is once again. At the moment we are feeling sporadic wind gusts and rain, so we do not know what to do. The local news is not saying anything regarding our area nor did they prior/during Katrina. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Hey lele25...Hopefully Mobile will be ok with this one...Katrina's hurricane force winds were alot farther out from the center of the storm than Gus' are at the moment. And hopefully surge won't be too terrible, although you really never know. I lived in Mobile for Katrina and my house in west Mobile had damage, but I remember that the local mets were on the tv constantly during Katrina. (I have no idea about this one because I live in Birmingham now...) But, I do think that this storm as a lot of major storms do, is "stair stepping"...he will jog north, then west, the north (really NNW, but whatevs), so hopefully he won't be too far off from the NHC track. I hope that helps!

[Viper54r]

Still NW IMO

[haml8]

Still looks NW to me, but I am no expert. I took a ruler to it calculating the offset for radar and it looks NW... maybe a met working the gravyard shift can verify.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WWL met (didn't catch her name) says worst will be Terrebonne and LaFourche, 100 mph winds and 10 to 14 foot surge.


CNN crawl said LSU prof with Dutch name who was on NOVA special about 2 years ago (I recognized name, but can't spell it) is predicting levees will fail, and flooding will be more widespread than Katrina.

Don't know time line on that, may have been based on a Cat 4, but then again, it still looks like a major just Southwest of New Orleans.

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 010514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 01/04:40:50Z
B. 27 deg 35 min N
088 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 66 kt
E. 118 deg 15 nm
F. 217 deg 077 kt
G. 132 deg 031 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 2607A GUSTAV OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 88 KT NW QUAD 04:53 Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

VDM = no eyewall reported

[fasterdisaster]

URNT12 KNHC 010514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 01/04:40:50Z
B. 27 deg 35 min N
088 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 66 kt
E. 118 deg 15 nm
F. 217 deg 077 kt
G. 132 deg 031 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 2607A GUSTAV OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 88 KT NW QUAD 04:53 Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

VDM = no eyewall

What?

[bigjohn]

Storm surge question...Which do you think will have more of an impact on NOLA flooding

The fact that Gustav did not explode into a Cat 5 near the loop current ala Katrina or a 20-30 mile wobble east or west in the final storm track. My gut tells me it is the former...but my gut has no degree in meterology

[CrazyC83]

I think the VDM missed the eye.