ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Just Joshing You]

There's an eyewall. I'm looking at it right now?

[cheezyWXguy]

URNT12 KNHC 010514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 01/04:40:50Z
B. 27 deg 35 min N
088 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 66 kt
E. 118 deg 15 nm
F. 217 deg 077 kt
G. 132 deg 031 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 2607A GUSTAV OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 88 KT NW QUAD 04:53 Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

VDM = no eyewall

Well thats sort of...impossible. Well defined eye on radar, with a partial eye on sat imagery. Maybe they just didnt acquire all the data they wanted about the eyewall.

[fasterdisaster]

I agree, I really doubt there's no eyewall. It's possible then 955 isn't the lowest pressure?

[Enzo Aquarius]

Flash Flood warnings have been extended into Oklahoma and Arkansas. As a side note, water meters for and around New Orleans/Baton Rouge are holding steady or rising slowly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

A wobble or two wnw then nnw it equals out to nw in the overall scheme of things. Has anyone noticed a slow down yet?

[CrazyC83]

I agree, I really doubt there's no eyewall. It's possible then 955 isn't the lowest pressure?

The surface winds were 8 kt in the dropsonde, but the lowest extrapolated pressure (952) had a 31 kt SFMR. I'd say 953 is the pressure as a blend of the estimates.

[smw1981]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Still looks NW to me headed right to Houma.

Are you sure? It sure likes wnw to my VERY tired eyes.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes[/quote]

come on guys...most of us on here at this hour have been members of S2k for a long time, and most of us know not to follow every single wobble. There have been at least 10 posts in the past hour of "I think he's making his west turn now" because he wobbled a little. Stronger storms tend to do that, but you are supposed to watch the general motion for 3-6 hours to decide a storm has changed directions (according to a pro earlier today..)! I'm not trying to be rude...just don't really care to read through 20 pages of "he's going NNW", "I don't think so..."

PS - He may really be heading more west...it's just not really possible to know that at this point!

[Dean4Storms]

URNT12 KNHC 010514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 01/04:40:50Z
B. 27 deg 35 min N
088 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2718 m
D. 66 kt
E. 118 deg 15 nm
F. 217 deg 077 kt
G. 132 deg 031 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 2607A GUSTAV OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 88 KT NW QUAD 04:53 Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

VDM = no eyewall reported

That doesn't look right, did they accidently fly out into Hannah?

[Enzo Aquarius]

A wobble or two wnw then nnw it equals out to nw in the overall scheme of things. Has anyone noticed a slow down yet?

A bit, at 5:00 PM EDT Gustav was moving at 18 MPH, 9:00 PM EDT at 17 MPH and now at 16 MPH.

[Nexus]

Being they made 1 of the 2 drops into the eyewall, I suppose there is one

Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall.

Splash Location: 27.72N 89.03W
Splash Time: 4:51Z

[mattpetre]

Going to bed, my wife is tired and that means I should be... I expect to see a landfalling hurricane somewhere west of due south of Houma sometime tomorrow. It could be anywhere from south of Lafayette to south of Lake Charles in my opinion. This is completely and amateur opinion, but I do believe it could be true. Look at the patterns and follow the dots...

[soonertwister]

No it still looks like a NW movement to me. Jus my opinion

I agree. And a 48 minute snapshot of radar images is not any kind of predictor of relative motion.

Actually think the motion has been more like 320-325 than less than 315.

[Texas Snowman]

Don't know how there could be no eye-wall when it has had an eye for 2 hours on sat presentation and on radar pics.

I've got to get some shut eye.

Long day, wife's family has longtime friends from the Houma area who have evacuated to N. Texas. To them and all of their neighbors on the Gulf Coast, be safe, batton down the hatches, good luck, God speed, and know that my prayers are with you all.

Last thing, I think that Gus will look like this (unofficially, of course) when I get up in a few hours:

949 mb
125 mph winds
NW direction to Houma or just east of there (unofficial prediction, of course).

Night all.

[bigjohn]

For those that have DirectTV, they are carrying live braodcast from the NOLA NBC affiliate WDSU on Channel 361

[lele25]

Thank you smw1981. The local mets are covering the general Mobile metro area but they are leaving out the Fairhope/Point Clear area, which along with western areas, recieved significant damage with Kat. Just walked out onto our pier...the waves are amazing! Glad we took the boat out of the lift as the waves are already breaking over the lower deck. Husband and I just decided to stay at the house because at this point there is no point in leaving so late. If things continue to progress, I should get some awesome pics tonight.....and here's hoping to very little damage. Thanks again!

[Dean4Storms]

Everyone stay safe, going to get some shut-eye!

[physicx07]

Flash Flood warnings have been extended into Oklahoma and Arkansas. As a side note, water meters for and around New Orleans/Baton Rouge are holding steady or rising slowly.

Oooh, do you have links for the water marks around N.O.? I'm becoming increasingly worried about the surge. The surge forecast from NHC suggests the max surge will be north of the Mississippi River but just a hair below Lake Borgne which feeds into Pontchartrain. Then, with the expanding wind field some are suggesting, I'm worried the surge might end up being worse than what's being talked about. I posed a question on the storm surge thread here in Active Storms a minute ago that I hope people who know will answer.

[wxmann_91]

From the unimpressive VDM and radar imagery, it looks like some dry air got into Gustav's southern Quad again.

EDIT: satellite images from a separate satellite, though fuzzy, does show the eye seems to have filled in, and there is a dry slot on the eastern Quad.

[physicx07]

Southwest Pass, LA shows winds sustained 51G76 mph. Check out this Mesonet display. It shows all the little minor weather stations, including offshore stuff I assume are buoys and ships.

You can zoom in on an area by 'drawing' the box you want to zoom into.

Also clicking on individual stations brings up history. For SW Pass, it shows data for every 6 minutes.

http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/mesonet/

[bahamaswx]

EDIT: satellite images from a separate satellite, though fuzzy, does show the eye seems to have filled in, and there is a dry slot on the eastern Quad.

Indeed. If anything, gradual weakening until landfall.