ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Brent]

Eclipse over:

[soonertwister]

Thank you smw1981. The local mets are covering the general Mobile metro area but they are leaving out the Fairhope/Point Clear area, which along with western areas, recieved significant damage with Kat. Just walked out onto our pier...the waves are amazing! Glad we took the boat out of the lift as the waves are already breaking over the lower deck. Husband and I just decided to stay at the house because at this point there is no point in leaving so late. If things continue to progress, I should get some awesome pics tonight.....and here's hoping to very little damage. Thanks again!

No problem lele...I am in Panama City and there are some pretty amazing waves here now, so I can only imagine how it is looking over there. My parents live on Dog River in Mobile, but it is too late to call them to see how things are in Mobile Co. It was definitely a good call to take your boat out of the water/lift...I would do that even for a tropical storm! As for the pier...hopefully it will be ok too (from the waves I mean..not the surge).

In Panama City, the surge/waves is higher up than I expected...the waves are now crashing where we laid out yesterday and this morning (and no, I am not exaggerating!). I really didn't expect that this far east, but I haven't really been paying attention to what would happen in PC because all of my attention has been on SE LA.

Good luck over there!

Heck, we're all of the way over here on Treasure Island, FL. (Southwestern tip of Pinellas County) and we just went downstairs to check our boat a few minutes ago, (high tide @ approx. 1:30a.m.) and part of our dock is under water!!! Normally at high tide we still have approx. 2 1/2 to 3 feet before water reaches the walkway planks!

That can give you an idea as to how much water Gustav must be pushing around!

Thank you for that report, TIFLG. It only confirms what I've been thinking would be a very possible outcome for more than half a day now.

Fortunately, NOLA is a ghost town now with only a small percentage remaining behind in the worst danger areas. And I doubt that anyone stayed behind in St. Bernard Parish, because I think everyone already knew that the area was going under water again.

[SoupBone]

Hmmm....doesn't look as good as earlier for sure. I tell you what we had a few thunderstorms a few hours ago but it's been really calm ever since. Not that I don't think it won't degrade but right now I'm glad it isn't as bad for me....yet.

Eclipse over:

[lele25]

Waves/surge are begining to look very alraming here in Point Clear, Al. Over the past 45 min. we have already lost about 6 feet off of the end of our pier. The boards that we lost are now slamming into the main pier house, along with other misc. debris, which will probably cause further damage. We rode down to Pelican Point a few minuets ago and the waves are crashing into the parking lot. Surprised that we are not having much rain yet????

[kurtpage]

pressure at 954 and winds still at 115 mph

[Stormcenter]

Eclipse over:

Wow the heavy convection remains to south of the citculation. It was like
that all yesterday (Sunday). I was sure it would eventually rotate around.
I guess not.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Yep, we can FINALLY say for sure now that no intensification will take place. As far as weakening goes? Hmm, that's hard to say. It's 50/50 whether it stays steady or weakens a little before land.

I don't think it'll strengthen either, it's had it's chance. I hope not. Doing so would defy all odds being that it's already passed the loop and did nothing.

I also think the guy saying that it wasn't Cuba that weakened it was right. It was dry air and shear. The eye was still pretty much intact when it left the Cuban coast.

[cpdaman]

per radar and satelite appears about 90 miles due south of grand isle's extreme southern limits

if your having trouble getting new orleans radar loop to update on nhc site

switch to mobile it gives you a pretty good view that is updated

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

also eye looks like it is opening up on east side or just a dry area to the east of eye

[mathwhizz]

It looks like the WNW wobble has stopped and now it's going to a NNW wobble. The timing of these wobbles may mean the difference between large parts of New Orleans flooding and staying dry.

[attallaman]

It is very quiet here in Biloxi at 1:30 a.m., extremely quiet. My phone has made more noise tonight than the weather outside. Our local MET at WLOX-TV 13 is still saying we can expect to receive winds near sunrise ranging from 40 to 60 mph with some gusts up to 80 and rain amounts of between 6 to 8 inches. Storm surge amounts of 6 to 9 feet. This is all based upon Gustav staying on his present track.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Waves/surge are begining to look very alraming here in Point Clear, Al. Over the past 45 min. we have already lost about 6 feet off of the end of our pier. The boards that we lost are now slamming into the main pier house, along with other misc. debris, which will probably cause further damage. We rode down to Pelican Point a few minuets ago and the waves are crashing into the parking lot. Surprised that we are not having much rain yet????

Ummm, hows about doin' us a favor and don't be out ridin' around no more??!!!
Don't need to be losin' any of our members to a sight-seein' trip!!

[Stormcenter]

It looks like the WNW wobble has stopped and now it's going to a NNW wobble. The timing of these wobbles may mean the difference between large parts of New Orleans flooding and staying dry.

It's going to end up going exactly where they had it....it not's ever going to be an exact line.
Look at the loop below.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Windy]

Looks like KLIX radar is down -- haven't gotten any updates in 45 mins or so.

[Stormcenter]

Yep, we can FINALLY say for sure now that no intensification will take place. As far as weakening goes? Hmm, that's hard to say. It's 50/50 whether it stays steady or weakens a little before land.

I don't think it'll strengthen either, it's had it's chance. I hope not. Doing so would defy all odds being that it's already passed the loop and did nothing.

I also think the guy saying that it wasn't Cuba that weakened it was right. It was dry air and shear. The eye was still pretty much intact when it left the Cuban coast.

As early as last Tuesday or Wednesday the NHC mentioned dry air and shear would be a possibly be
problem for Gustav when he entered the GOM.

[mathwhizz]

It looks like the WNW wobble has stopped and now it's going to a NNW wobble. The timing of these wobbles may mean the difference between large parts of New Orleans flooding and staying dry.

It's going to end up going exactly where they had it....it not's wever going to be an exact line.
Look at the loop below.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

It's a lot easier to see the eye on radar. Going NNW now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Janie2006]

The ride in lower Plaquemines Parish should be getting quite bumpy, according to radar out of KLIX.

[lele25]

After Kat we raised our house and put in bulkheads along the beach, so if the surge stays the way that NHC has predicted we should be fine. At this point it is only disturbing the end of our pier and the the debris could cause damage to the central portion (pier house). Yes, I know we should not be driving around, but Pelican Point is only 3 miles down from us. What strikes me as odd is that just now I took my dog outside and the winds are calm as can be...water still appears to be rising though.

[tailgater]

Looking at Mobile radar
http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/N0Z/MOB ... gend_0.gif

Eyewall maybe returning

[RL3AO]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[hiflyer]

New Orleans radar is out...has been since just after 1am cdt....Mobile radar fine and holding the eye on a 306 degree run as of 0200 cdt.