ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

SE tip of LA isn't far away from the eyewall now, probably only a few hours till the eyewall passes just to the west of them.

Grand Isle probably will get hit by the eyewall, expect them to get dangerous conditions with the surge and probably cat-3 type gusts.

[cpdaman]

does anyone really live near SW pass i hope not, but they may get skimmed by the NE side of eye wall in about 2 hours or so

gusting to 86 Knots as of 224 CDT

[MONTEGUT_LA]

My father-in-law, who is riding out the storm in his Dulac home, said that the water has not started coming up but he did feel some gusty winds. Lord, I hope he got his life jacket!

[Sonica]

SE tip of LA isn't far away from the eyewall now, probably only a few hours till the eyewall passes just to the west of them.

Grand Isle probably will get hit by the eyewall, expect them to get dangerous conditions with the surge and probably cat-3 type gusts.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[KWT]

IR still showing some pretty deep convection near the center, probably enough to keep the system going uptill landfall now I reckon, looks like this will be a major hit.

[Windy]

Seems like it's wobbled a bit to the north; probable landfall looks to be maybe 10 to 20 miles east of NHC target.

[Stormcenter]

New Orleans radar is out...has been since just after 1am cdt....Mobile radar fine and holding the eye on a 306 degree run as of 0200 cdt.

New Orleans Radar is up again now, with a bit of a gap in the coverage. The change during the "gap" , between 1.04 AM and 02:08 AM CDT, seems to me to have been slightly N of NW (in other words a little more northerly compared to the previous hour, still bringing it ashore west of NOLA, but way, way too close for comfort.)

(Edit - almost stationary for the last twenty minutes)

Gustave is still moving (NW)...he is NOT stalling.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Rod Hagen]

ConvergenceZone, 8.30 in the morning, very nice morning, just hope the situation out there doesn't become too severe.

Between the radar break in the N.O radar I think you can see a motion probably around 300, extrap that motion and it goes into Houma...

Mmm, using the same depiction from NO Radar, and the more recent updates, too, I'd say it was currently tracking straight towards the "a" at the end of "Houma" on the radar map, rather than the town itself, KWT. THis translates to a line midway between Houma and NOLA. THis puts the track only about 30 kms south west of NOLA (near enough to 20 miles ).

Lets hope it takes another westward kink (at least for the people of NOLA).

Rod

[KWT]

Yeah I was just going to say windy radar does suggests its just wobbled a touch further north than what its previous heading was.

Main rain shield now very close to N.O as well, conditions will go down hill there soon and we will start to see gusts upto strong TS force winds and eventually as the system takes its closest approach hurricane force winds look possible.

[Stormcenter]

[quote="Windy"]Seems like it's wobbled a bit to the north; probable landfall looks to be maybe 10 to 20 miles east of NHC target.[/quot

I don't think so.

[KWT]

Rod Hagen, well if the jog continues then indeed you may wel be right, either way its still going to be very close to Houma I think and surge could well be a big issue.

That SW pass may be getting the eyewall within the next hour or so, could well be getting gusts upto major strength in that NE eyewall, looks like that may get the highest winds unless the eye jogs westward.

[Rod Hagen]

[
Gustave is still moving (NW)...he is NOT stalling.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

The slowdown only appeared for a couple of frames, Stormcenter, but I still think it is tracking a little more north of NW from the radar pics than one would like for the sake of New Orleans, when you look at the change from the "gap" to now. Still, at least the earlier WNW movement before the "gap" in radar should result in a bit more land interference than there would have been otherwise.

Rod

[KWT]

Looks to me as though the motion has turned to NW now rather then WNW it was before. The eyewall should hammer Grand Isles. Eyewall also going to pass very close to Stake Island, prehaps to close for comfort...

[cpdaman]

did the storm accelerate

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]


seems like it's coming up real fast on Sw pass , LA (the part that sticks out the farthest in se la)

this thing is gonna clip sw pass by 515 edt (415 cdt)

then likely come ashore south of golden meadow around 7 EDT (6 central) In my opinion



ALWAYS defer to NHC for OFFICAL INFO

[Windy]

Seems like it's wobbled a bit to the north; probable landfall looks to be maybe 10 to 20 miles east of NHC target.[/quot

I don't think so.

It's a bit hard to tell from long range GRLevel3 especially with KLIX down for a spell (transmitter probs). Right now the northern eyewall is almost directly south of Pilots Station east (tip of the boot), maybe 25 miles away.

[KWT]

Yep it does seem to be moving at a pretty good clip now, the SW pass should indeed get the NE eyewall within the next hour, they will no doubt get cat-2/3 type winds in that tip, conditions there right now must be unreal, surge should be pilling rioght across the SE tip now.

[Stormcenter]

It is still racing toward Houma, LA and the "eye wall" is not going
to brush Grand Isle.

[cpdaman]

Seems like it's wobbled a bit to the north; probable landfall looks to be maybe 10 to 20 miles east of NHC target.[/quot

I don't think so.

sure does to me as well (look like it wobbled north) but now back west ...


who ever said they have a relative in Dulac riding this out, my prayers are with you

the next 30 miles of wobble's could mean the difference between a 15 foot surge there (should the center go just west) or much less

[physicx07]

and here is a great site to track storm surge from , apparently it gives live heights (assuming until date goes out?) just click on a link in louisiana


http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

click on the link at grand isle ....look at the current stats....going down hill fast

appears to hit near houma near high tide peak

Thanks!

[Stormcenter]

I guess we put this NNW movement talk to rest for at least the next hour.
It was 28.1N and 89.1W at 2:00am per the NHC.

WTNT52 KNHC 010757
TCEAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
300 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

AT 3 AM CDT...0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.