ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

physicx07 · #9721 Postby **physicx07** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:30 am

fact789 wrote:Bill read may be on CNN if they can fix some audio problems.

He's on. Gee, he'd actually make a decent reporter.

physicx07 · #9722 Postby **physicx07** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:31 am

He's most worried about surge...then wind and rain.

cpdaman · #9723 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:33 am

SW pass elevated site gusting 102 knots short while ago

latest obs just show sustained wind circa 90 and "**" where gusts should be, perhaps it's maxed out

Tom8 · #9724 Postby **Tom8** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:39 am

current localization of the center is posible to see on this picture

physicx07 · #9725 Postby **physicx07** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:41 am

I think the surge at Grand Isle is going to be really nasty when the storm gets closer. When you look at the shape of the bay, the location it's at in the bay (sort of in the NW corner of the bay) and Gus' track, looks like they'll get slammed hard.

KWT · #9726 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:43 am

Yeah Tom the eye still looks seeable on that imagery, the inner core has weakened quite a lot and the eyewall has just totally opened up just before it hit Stake Island which is a good thing.

I do think 115mph is a little generous as well to be fair.

Kennethb · #9727 Postby **Kennethb** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:49 am

I am from south LA and have never heard of Stake island. What is another name for the island that is being referenced as Stake?

#9728 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:50 am

Nimbus · #9729 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:52 am

Could have been a lot worse, Looks like Gustav dried out quite a bit as he approached the coast. The surge won't be as bad as you would get with a monster storm. How are the levies holding up?

#9730 Postby **littlevince** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:55 am

KWT · #9731 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:58 am

Kennethb, its just the very SW most part of the SE tip of LA, I'm sure it probably does have another name I'm just using the name google earth have for it

littlevince, Katrina does look stronger than Gustav is at the moment but thats to be expected given Gustav is a little weaker then Katrina, though the thing I notice is both have open eyewalls.

#9732 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:02 am

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

AT 5 AM CDT...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND
ABOUT 40 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.

WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A STATION IN SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 91 MPH...147 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 117
MPH...189 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

cpdaman · #9733 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:03 am

KWT wrote:Kennethb, its just the very SW most part of the SE tip of LA, I'm sure it probably does have another name I'm just using the name google earth have for it

littlevince, Katrina does look stronger than Gustav is at the moment but thats to be expected given Gustav is a little weaker then Katrina, though the thing I notice is both have open eyewalls.

i think a key to a storm holding it's own thru the n gom, maybe a situation where a storm rides the channel of a jet streak max, like wilma did thru s. fl. but this is a bit over my head

HarlequinBoy · #9734 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:07 am

NWS Jackson says that Gustav may be a prolific tornado producer because of the "dry air" component.

NC George · #9735 Postby **NC George** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:08 am

KWT wrote:Kennethb, its just the very SW most part of the SE tip of LA, I'm sure it probably does have another name I'm just using the name google earth have for it

Probably known more as Southwest Pass. My Delorme Street Atlas notes it as Stake Island, historical.

Incidentally, I can no longer load radar from the nws radar from anywhere in the country, getting an Apache timeout error. I guess everyone woke up and went to check radar.

#9736 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:08 am

cpdaman · #9737 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:11 am

in the last 90 minutes what direction is this thing seem to be going? WNW or maybe i need sleep

derek and wxman's alarms should be sounding about now, can't wait for there latest thoughts

cpdaman · #9738 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:13 am

grand isle gustin to 69 knots

Sonica · #9739 Postby **Sonica** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:16 am

KWT wrote:Yeah Tom the eye still looks seeable on that imagery, the inner core has weakened quite a lot and the eyewall has just totally opened up just before it hit Stake Island which is a good thing.

I do think 115mph is a little generous as well to be fair.

Thank you god for slowing this guy down. And for not going direct into NO.
I really believe this is not going to be as bad as we feared. He seems to be breaking up. Now on land he will die fast and we can only hope he moves fast doing it.

#9740 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:17 am

PSTL1 O 0918 28.93 -89.41 32 8 100 79.1 100.0 - - - - 28.87

90 mph sustained and a gust of 115 mph. This is 24 m above ground.

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