ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[funster]

Even if Gustav goes farther to the west it probably won't change the surge too much for New Orleans - they may still get a Cat 3 storm surge. I read the levees are built to withstand a Cat 3 storm surge so hopefully the city will be protected.

[HURAKAN]

Even if Gustav goes farther to the west it probably won't change the surge too much for New Orleans - they may still get a Cat 3 storm surge. I read the levees are built to withstand a Cat 3 storm surge so hopefully the city will be protected.

Unfortunately some of the levees have not been reinforced and Gustav will test their strength.

[Tom8]

Interactive Radar
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... 28&zoom=10

[KWT]

Thats near cat-2 sustained winds there Hurakan and obviously gusting now upto major hurricane strength I think Gran Isle may well get something not to far away from waht that station is having right now, we shall see.

[cpdaman]

looks like where about 70 minutes away from the landfall on those swamp /marshlands/barrier island to the south of houma

[HURAKAN]

[JtSmarts]

So it looks like the best comparison to Gus at this time is Georges 1998???

[physicx07]

Watching CNN, I see that surge is rushing in at Grand Isle just now.

[cpdaman]

grand isle gusting to 74 knots

with pressure 981 as of 524 CDT

[HURAKAN]

URNT12 KWBC 011011
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 1/0951Z
B. 28 DEG 29 MIN N
89 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. 70 KT
E. 050 DEG 24 NM
F. 135 DEG 93 KT
G. 050 DEG 29 NM
H. 956 MB
I. 15 C/3662 M
J. 17 C/3664 M
K. 7 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/NA
O. 1/3 NM
P. NOAA3 2707A GUSTAV OB 13 AL072008
MAX FL WIND 93 KNOTS NE QUAD 0943Z

Pressure supports a Cat. 3 but winds support a Cat. 2. I think the NHC will downgrade Gustav to Cat. 2 at 7 AM CDT.

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... m-new.html

Some TV imagery from No La

[KWT]

Eastern side of the system going downhill pretty quickly it looks like on radar, eyewall now only halfway across the system.

Center still looks like its heading towards Houma on radar it seems.

[cpdaman]

this thing really looks like it has bent to the left

looks close to a due WNW movement

over 5 feet and counting (surge) in pascagula, ms

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

[PhillyWX]

I think the NHC will downgrade Gustav to Cat. 2 at 7 AM CDT.

It is also quite possible, given the media attention and hype, that Gustav is held as a 3 to landfall in order to prevent any "wolf crying syndrome" from kicking in. Given all the comparisons to Katrina that are going on with Gustav in the media, even though they are completely different storms, it's quite possible they leave it "as is" until the Fall and then lower the final intensity of the storm in post analysis...

[Rod Hagen]

Is there any possibility that now it has turned much harder to the west that this thing will bounce along the coast, as we seem to see occasionally in WA and the NT?

Cheers

Rod

[KWT]

Yep cpdaman does look like its bent back to the WNW somewhat but with the eyewall falling apart on the eastern side its not as east to make a very accurate forecast of the motion of Gustav right now.

[Tom8]

Pilots Sta E, SW Pass, LA, Pilottown, LA
Wind Speed: 85.0mph
Wind Gust: 94.0mph

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... re=0&tor=0

[KLP124]

So does anyone think all these tornadoes will make it to SE Texas. I hate tornadoes more than I hate hurricanes!

[KWT]

Well thats decent category-1 winds there Tom, gusting very close to a 2 as well...

[Thunder44]

6am CDT advisory just out. Still Winds 115mph, pressure 954mb, moving NW 16mph.