ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Is there any possibility that now it has turned much harder to the west that this thing will bounce along the coast, as we seem to see occasionally in WA and the NT?

Cheers

Rod

We usually see that happening when cyclones approach the islands in the Caribbean with the high terrain but Lousiana, just like Florida, is very flat and hurricanes just move through.

[JtSmarts]

Deep convection still popping on the western side of the storm.

[KWT]

Yeah that deep bursting in the weastern eyewall isprobably whats helping to keep this an 'offical' cat-3 even though the data from recon suggests this is acctually only really a 2 right now.

[physicx07]

So does anyone think all these tornadoes will make it to SE Texas. I hate tornadoes more than I hate hurricanes!

I think you're in luck. I don't think there will be the same tornado threat in SE Texas. Tornadoes usually occur on the north to east quadrants of the storm. In general it's those quadrants because those quadrants are more likely to have the kind of 0-3km wind shear setup needed. The way the track is going, SE Texas will never be in one of those quadrants.

[Sanibel]

You can see why no possible east move before landfall was likely. Gus has pulled under the High and slowed down. Hyperstorm was right about the dry section not having any precipitation in it when it showed up on radar. Looks like the High over the US has saved New Orleans from the storm they were expecting two days ago.

[Tom8]

Well thats decent category-1 winds there Tom, gusting very close to a 2 as well...

I can not finde now current data from this place

new picture

[Sonica]

You can see why no possible east move before landfall was likely. Gus has pulled under the High and slowed down. Hyperstorm was right about the dry section not having any precipitation in it when it showed up on radar. Looks like the High over the US has saved New Orleans from the storm they were expecting two days ago.

Amen to that!

[KWT]

Hmm well thats not good news Tom but there you go!

Sanibel, yeah the high pressure is nudging back in again, seems like its closer to WNW than NW to me recently but its not easy to tell these sorts of things with a weakening inner core.

[mathwhizz]

Let's not jump for Joy that New Orleans is saved just yet. I remember everyone was doing that for Katrina and we all know what happened.

The fact is New Orleans got Cat 1 winds and the surge did not overtop any levees. If the levees were built to specs and maintained properly, none of them would have broke during Katrina.

So let's see if the levees can handle a Cat 1 from Gustav.

[cpdaman]

Let's not jump for Joy that New Orleans is saved just yet. I remember everyone was doing that for Katrina and we all know what happened.

The fact is New Orleans got Cat 1 winds and the surge did not overtop any levees. If the levees were built to specs and maintained properly, none of them would have broke during Katrina.

So let's see if the levees can handle a Cat 1 from Gustav.

especially considerng per radar this thing has slowed doooowwwwnnn and appears to have gone wnw (or i'm nuts) lots of se winds pilling water at NO and rains could be heavier

[mathwhizz]

Question:

Since the inner core and eyewall has collapsed and greatly expanded to approximately 70 miles, has the wind field spread out? Does this mean that the center could hit Houma and New Orleans could still experience the northeast core of the storm?

[HURAKAN]

Gustav is just beginning to make his breath be felt. New Orleans is not saved just yet. Don't count your chicks before they hatch. I remember hearing the same thing the day Katrina passed and we know what happened later. Gustav is a formidable cat 2 / cat 3 storm. Don't forget that.

[Sanibel]

Motion is close to final model last night entering shore on shallow angle and going just south of Lafayette.

This area has handled many a category 2 system before. Too early to call this a bust because surge angle is good for flooding. I would guess we'll see reports of (moderate?) surge breaches all day.

Back to sleep.

[tgenius]

I think the TV station in NOLA went down, my directv went black.

[HURAKAN]

I think the TV station in NOLA went down, my directv went black.

Same problem here. I think their anthena just blew away.

[lisa0825]

I think the TV station in NOLA went down, my directv went black.

Same problem here. I think their anthena just blew away.

My local affiliate in Houston, Channel 11, said they lost power in the town where they were getting a live shot. That may have been the same area.

[mathwhizz]

Does the center really matter now since the eye appears to be 70 miles on radar?

Where exactly are the winds? Are they only in the rainbands?

[physicx07]

I totally agree mathwhizz and Hurakan. Still have to wait and see about the levees. Also, the ones in the west bank were not tested by Katrina. Those levees are a big unknown.

[KWT]

Eyewall now coming onshore, western eyewall brushing onshore now and seems to be weakening as you'd expect.

Landfall within the hour I should think, eye is very very close to land. Also N.O should begetting some active weather now, they could get the band infront of the eyewall which could give cat-1 gusts.

[Sanibel]

Surge seen with daylight on live CNN report from Grande Isle.