ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Grease Monkey]

Hannah is quickly taking center stage.

She must be a leo.

[caneman]

That is an incredible mass of grey cold cloud tops she is displaying.

[sfwx]

I posted in the models thread.. I think Hanna may pull a David in 1979 that went up the coast.

Maybe some similarities once it gets through the Bahamas.

http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA


Eric

[storms in NC]

{Where have you been Gatorcane, I figured you would been all over this.}

I asked him last night but didn't answer. I figure he is over on Gus.But I do like his in puts if they are right or wrong. He alway gives a good reason and not what some had said here {Gut feeling}Or wishcastting.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That intense area of grey on the IR indicates rapid intensification
over high heat content waters now that gustav's shear has stopped
impacting Hanna. This will easily be a hurricane in a few hours
looking at that IR, and possibly rapid intensification could
occur.

[KWT]

gale centers for you mate

Yep plus some good strong thunderstorms from them usually!

Hurakan, that does look really interesting right now, at the very least the circulation is in a position to strengthen right now under he totally expolsive convection, no doubt maybe being helped by Gustav's outflow interestingly enough though the shear from there isn't really displacing the convection.

[gatorcane]

{Where have you been Gatorcane, I figured you would been all over this.}

I asked him last night but didn't answer. I figure he is over on Gus.But I do like his in puts if they are right or wrong. He alway gives a good reason and not what some had said here {Gut feeling}Or wishcastting.

I've been entertaining for Labor Day...but that appears to be ending within the next 6 hours.

My eye has been on Hanna and Gustav in the background though.

[gatorcane]

another thing to watch is if the center reforms further south and east then where NHC currently has it....as shear hits Hanna and pushes the convection southward......a new center could form.

Track model guidance would change in this case.

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 1200 20.50 -72.60 186 183 220 48.0 - - - - - 29.66

Very far south and stronger than 45 knots. Hanna is stronger or the anemometer is faulty.

[storms in NC]

{Where have you been Gatorcane, I figured you would been all over this.}

I asked him last night but didn't answer. I figure he is over on Gus.But I do like his in puts if they are right or wrong. He alway gives a good reason and not what some had said here {Gut feeling}Or wishcastting.

I've been entertaining for Labor Day...but that appears to be ending within the next 6 hours.

My eye has been on Hanna and Gustav in the background though.

See you now running to take a peek and run back like you never left LOL

[Myersgirl]

Look at the last loop of the water vapor. Appears to show the center of circulation at about 22.5 and 71.3 to me.

[Myersgirl]

link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[jlauderdal]

That intense area of grey on the IR indicates rapid intensification
over high heat content waters now that gustav's shear has stopped
impacting Hanna. This will easily be a hurricane in a few hours
looking at that IR, and possibly rapid intensification could
occur.

the surface is what matters, not a great looking IR

[AJC3]

Look at the last loop of the water vapor. Appears to show the center of circulation at about 22.5 and 71.3 to me.

The only way you're going to get a decent center fix (and a measure of intensity), especially with this storm the way it is right now, is to get a plane in there. WV is never good since it doesn't show much of anything below 600MB, and vis and IR won't do the trick in this case. A timely M/I pass would help, however these things a have time lag of a couple hours on the NRL site.

[tgenius]

AJC3, do you think SFL is going to be avoided or are you with the UKMET and pushing southwest and then Nw into FL?

[KWT]

I think its perfectly obvious that its stronger then 45kts the NHC has been estimating, how strong I'm not sure just yet recon will show, much depends on how exposed any LLC becomes when the next pluse of shear comes through is it no doubt will.

AJC3, agreed the only way we will know where the LLC is if it becomes exposed, pretty obvious it must be somewhere under that convection just where about.

[captain east]

Look at the last loop of the water vapor. Appears to show the center of circulation at about 22.5 and 71.3 to me.

The only way you're going to get a decent center fix (and a measure of intensity), especially with this storm the way it is right now, is to get a plane in there. WV is never good since it doesn't show much of anything below 600MB, and vis and IR won't do the trick in this case. A timely M/I pass would help, however these things a have time lag of a couple hours on the NRL site.

LOL, that's my favorite SNL skit...

[AJC3]

AJC3, do you think SFL is going to be avoided or are you with the UKMET and pushing southwest and then Nw into FL?

Too early for me to commit yet. Right now the guidance consensus is pointing to a landfall north of the east coast of FL, but being several days out, as we've seen in the past, that can change. I don't see much chance of a recurve without hitting land somewhere along the SE US coast, and I see it getting close enough to the FL east coast to cause some pretty cruddy weather.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
414 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FRESH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH POPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ON NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
HANNA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALL DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF HANNA. GFDL NOGAPS AND UKMET MOVE HANNA FURTHER WEST THAN 00 UTC
GFS BUT HWRF IS FURTHER OFFSHORE. MOST MODELS DEVELOP HANNA INTO AT
LEAST A MINIMAL HURRICANE WHILE IT PASSES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL
THINGS CONSIDERED THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS
AND DAY 4-5 TPC FORECAST AND REFLECTS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ALONG THE COASTLINE. GFS REFLECTS INCREASING POPS EARLY
THURSDAY AS LIKELY RAINBANDS BEGIN AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS AND
COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THAT THE FORECAST FOR HANNAH IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOSE BRUSH WITH A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE OR EVEN A LANDFALL ON THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AS
THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE TRACK OF
HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A SIGNIFICANT MARINE AND
COASTAL EVENT WITH ROUGH SURF... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH
EROSION. FUTURE FORECASTS COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY SO IT GOES
WITHOUT SAYING FOR ALL INTERESTS TO STAY TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS
AND TPC ADVISORIES.

MOST MODELS MOVE HANNA OUT RAPIDLY ONCE IT TURNS NORTHWARD SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
HANNA SHE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MARINE AREA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS LIKELY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF HANNA TROPICAL STORM WATCHES/WARNING AND POSSIBLY
HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
ZONES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL PATH OF HANNA. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST
TRACK WOULD PLACE THE AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD YIELD LESS OVERALL RAINFALL BUT COULD MAKE WATER BACKING UP
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AN ISSUE SHOULD STRONG N-NE
WINDS DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUTH. SINCE HANNA IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
EXACT EVOLUTION/TRACK IS NOT YET FULLY KNOWN WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON HANNA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT /MIAFLSMLB/ FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOODING ON THE ST
JOHNS RIVER.

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing that has concerned me about Hanna during the course of her life has been how much of a fighter she is. She took everything that the ULL could throw at it and still maintained a vigorous circulation. Maybe Hanna should have been Ike instead...(sorry, Bad Ike Turner joke)

Speaking of Ike... Looks like he is on deck...It is definitely September. Gonna be a busy month.



SFT