ATL: IKE Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38 FROM 10N TO 23N WITH AN EMBEDDED
1006 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 17N. THE WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS ALREADY OVER THE SURFACE LOW.
THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
COVERS A LARGE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

[KWT]

Yep looks like we are about to have TD9 just need to make sure the convection lasts another 6hrs probably, it does look very impressive.

Also the discussion of an anticyclone over the top of 97L would suggest decent strengthening is likely, I think this could well become a hurricane sometime in the future, is it a risk to the USA, too early to tell...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 271745.GIF

The rotation is quite impressive.

[Grease Monkey]

Yep looks like we are about to have TD9 just need to make sure the convection lasts another 6hrs probably, it does look very impressive.

Also the discussion of an anticyclone over the top of 97L would suggest decent strengthening is likely, I think this could well become a hurricane sometime in the future, is it a risk to the USA, too early to tell...

I think storms that tend to develop earlier while in the east atlantic tend to recurve out to sea.

[KWT]

Yep quite obvious where the LLC is at the moment Hurakan, I think there is enough evidence to suggest an upgrade to TD9 is going to come sooner rather then later today.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely need to watch this one though.

[Thunder44]

We should have TD 9 at 11am:

AL, 09, 2008090112, , BEST, 0, 174N, 388W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ,

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, it looks impressive but convection is not very deep at this time, which makes upgrading it right now kind of debatable.

I think the NHC will wait until Gustav makes landfall before upgrading this one to a TD, just to get one off their back. That may not happen until 5-11pm.

We'll see what happens...

EDIT: Well it looks like it may be upgraded. Again, we'll see what happens.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_al972008_al092008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200809011252
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[HURAKAN]

A vote for Ike!

[HurricaneHunter914]

We really are in the most active part of the season now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I've seen tropical storms look like this many a time. There is no debate with this.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Navy Site now has it as TD09!

[jlauderdal]

Yes, it looks impressive but convection is not very deep at this time, which makes upgrading it right now kind of debatable.

I think the NHC will wait until Gustav makes landfall before upgrading this one to a TD, just to get one off their back. That may not happen until 5-11pm.

We'll see what happens...

EDIT: Well it looks like it may be upgraded. Again, we'll see what happens.

they dont work that way, if its a td its a td, they arent in the business of getting things off their back, if it meets the criteria than it gets the appropriate classification, its just like watches/warnings..it takes the guesswork out of everything and keeps the everyone from trying to guess what is going on

[KWT]

Yep this clearly has to be a 30kts tropical depression now, its already showing signs of wrapping round. Ike may not be all that far away.

HurricaneHunter914, a parade of tropical cyclones...and we can't even see 99l!

I think this could be a long tracking hurricane, but we shall have to wait and see, too early to know the risk of the US but a track similar to pre-Hanna but further north looks possible to me.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, it looks impressive but convection is not very deep at this time, which makes upgrading it right now kind of debatable.

I think the NHC will wait until Gustav makes landfall before upgrading this one to a TD, just to get one off their back. That may not happen until 5-11pm.

We'll see what happens...

EDIT: Well it looks like it may be upgraded. Again, we'll see what happens.

they dont work that way, if its a td its a td, they arent in the business of getting things off their back, if it meets the criteria than it gets the appropriate classification, its just like watches/warnings..it takes the guesswork out of everything and keeps the everyone from trying to guess what is going on

I agree, but sometimes politics don't work that way. Let's leave it at that...

[johngaltfla]

That is somewhat of an unnerving location for that one to form. I wonder what the long term prospects for the Bermuda High are building back in behind Hanna after she departs....

[KWT]

Yep johngaltfla, I think Hanna will leave a weakness but as the system willbe heading NW inland then the system will probably take the route of least resistance so to speak and follow Hanna and be a threat to the east coast.

However too early to know what will happen but many stors that have hit the east coast in the first half of September formed near the region 97L (soon to be Td9) have come from.

[cycloneye]

Maybe NHC may skip TD status and go to TS IKE:

01/1145 UTC 17.4N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 97L -- Atlantic Ocean