ATL: IKE Discussion

[johngaltfla]

I know what you mean KWT. I would prefer that the high reform east of its normal location as that would allow a turn to the NW following Hanna's path. We really do not need any more gulf systems for a while, especially from a long hauler that has over ten days to build up.

Ike could be one ugly problem for the east coast if the shear stays relaxed and it has a clear path behind Hanna.

[El Nino]

Maybe NHC may skip TD status and go to TS IKE:

01/1145 UTC 17.4N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

Yeeekkkk Ike ... allready !

[KWT]

wow 2.5, I mean its not surprising 97L is looking hot right now with decent hints of wrapping occuring of the convection towards the LLC already.

I think we may well have Ike today as well

3 Named storms at once!

[bob rulz]

It looks like it's trying to wrap that western band. Wouldn't be surprised to see this as a tropical storm but I think the NHC will go more conservative and declare it a tropical depression.

[KWT]

I think waht may happen Bob is they will upgrade this to Td9, then possibly 6hrs later if it holds this apperence then upgrade this to Ike. I wonder how high the NHC will go in terms of strength?

[Chacor]

TAFB also gives T2.5/2.5.

AL, 09, 200809011145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1740N, 3860W, , 3, 35, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, MN, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T,
AL, 09, 200809011145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1750N, 3850W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MN, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, DT = 3.0 BASED ON 0.5 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B

[banksmanforever]

The Navy Site has it as a depression

[KWT]

Yep 2.5 from both agencies, going to have to watch to see if they change it from Td9 to TS Ike or not, i suspect they will wait till after they've upgraded it to Td9 then upgrade this 6hrs later if the data still supports it, which I strongly suspect it will.

Looks like its going to be a pretty long tracker this one, the first one since Bertha really.

[meteorologyman]

Yep 2.5 from both agencies, going to have to watch to see if they change it from Td9 to TS Ike or not, i suspect they will wait till after they've upgraded it to Td9 then upgrade this 6hrs later if the data still supports it, which I strongly suspect it will.

Looks like its going to be a pretty long tracker this one, the first one since Bertha really.

no offense but all of these storms we had seem like a long tracker lol.

[tolakram]

And here I was looking forward to only tracking one storm for a while.

[KWT]

meteorologyman, well yeah true but I mean an offical long tracker, not just an invest but an actual tropical cyclone.

[Chacor]

TD9 is here.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

[Brent]

[KWT]

Yep now totally offical, tropical depression 9.

Forecasted to reach 70kts but I suspect at this range that could easily be too low its hard to say, also track looks pretty condusive for yet *another* USA landfall

23.5N 68.5W heading only a little north of west...

[El Nino]

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

Hurricane in 3 days ?

How favourable is the environment ?

[gatorcane]

TD9 is here.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

and check out the wind field projection. An arrow nearly due west across the Atlantic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

[El Nino]

INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.


DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

Not good ...

[HURAKAN]

I don't like this part:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

I don't like this part:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

if florida doesnt get hit by nine or hanna and i mean any part florida then the state should start buying lottery tickets in its own lottery game because we will be so damn lucky its sick