ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[tpr1967]

No.

Dang, I was writing as the Accu track was posted.

Can i change my forecast?

[storms in NC]

I do not see a WSW movment. It could be. But I don't see it. I see it building up and moving so little to the W-NW Like At 290. It look like it has move to the south cause it is building up on the WSW side
But tthat is Just me.

[KWT]

I think its not easy at all to tell about the motion, we can't see the LLC so we have no idea of the track this ssytem is taking really, recon will give a better picture, which is on its way now.

[boca]

On sat I noticed Gustav is moving more WNW rather than NW so why would Hanna take such a sharp NW to NNW turn. Where is the weakness?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[CourierPR]

On sat I noticed Gustav is moving more WNW rather than NW so why would Hanna take such a sharp NW to NNW turn. Where is the weakness?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

I would say just north of west.

[mawolf3]

They ended the news conference by saying all of Florida is suseptable to effects from Hanna possible around thursday.

[Grease Monkey]

Looking on that loop, she seems to be atleast moving west if not slightly wsw.

[gatorcane]

I think we'll get a better handle of the track, center, movement, and strength once recon gathers enough data today.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Gustav is still hitting her with some shear with his outflow and that very clear on tht IR.

[HeatherAKC]

It's times like this that I could let my mind race and freak out about a potential threat to SEFlorida. Just looking at how close Hanna is can be scary. However, I step away from S2K for a moment and go to the NHC site and I feel much better. With all the discussion of where Hanna is or isnt' going, wouldn't you agree that 99.9999% of the time the NHC really knows their stuff? It always amazes me that despite the discussion, despite the wobble wars, despite what we think we see evolving, the NHC always has a handle on these storms. It's as if they have some data we don't have access too. Obviously. Hats off to them!

AND, hats off to S2K! I will be sending another donation this week!

Back to Hanna..........

[tgenius]

Not to play devil's advocate, but even NHC is saying in their discussions the track is uncertain.

[Grease Monkey]

It's times like this that I could let my mind race and freak out about a potential threat to SEFlorida. Just looking at how close Hanna is can be scary. However, I step away from S2K for a moment and go to the NHC site and I feel much better. With all the discussion of where Hanna is or isnt' going, wouldn't you agree that 99.9999% of the time the NHC really knows their stuff? It always amazes me that despite the discussion, despite the wobble wars, despite what we think we see evolving, the NHC always has a handle on these storms. It's as if they have some data we don't have access too. Obviously. Hats off to them!

AND, hats off to S2K! I will be sending another donation this week!

Back to Hanna..........

Yes I agree they are pretty accurate once they get a handle on the track. I don't think that has happened yet.

[gatorcane]

Not to play devil's advocate, but even NHC is saying in their discussions the track is uncertain.

Not to mention the NHC states at the 5am EST discussion:

"ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA"

I'm not sure Heather living in Florida how you feel better reading the NHC discussion when they indicate this

Nonetheless its doubtful Hanna will ever be as strong as Gustav and the intensity forecasts by the models are not showing a major out of Hanna at this time.

[umguy]

How far was Hanna Montana forcast to move today?

[CourierPR]

Right now, the only certainty is uncertainty.

[storms in NC]

Look at Hanna faning out now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

Nonetheless its doubtful Hanna will ever be as strong as Gustav and the intensity forecasts by the models are not showing a major out of Hanna at this time.

Funny you should say that but the GFDL does bring this upto a major just before landfall, 108kts t the altitude it runs at would be very close to 100kts at the surface...

However the truth is everywhere in the SE should watch Hanna very carefully indeed, as others have said the outflow for Gustav is still hitting Hanna pretty hard but Hanna is putting up a good fight of it thanks to the utterly explosive convection.

[gatorcane]

Look at Hanna faning out now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Impressive indeed, there is some northerly shear from Gustav...but I tell you sure looks like an anticyclonic flow is trying to build in especially for Hanna's southern side.

[storms in NC]

Not to play devil's advocate, but even NHC is saying in their discussions the track is uncertain.

Not to mention the NHC states at the 5am EST discussion:

"ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA"

I'm not sure Heather living in Florida how you feel better reading the NHC discussion when they indicate this

Nonetheless its doubtful Hanna will ever be as strong as Gustav and the intensity forecasts by the models are not showing a major out of Hanna at this time.

I think she could be a cat 1 to a 2. By the she is looking today I think by this afternoon we will have a low cat 1.This is NOT a FORCAST JMO

[Grease Monkey]

Look at Hanna faning out now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Impressive indeed, there is some northerly shear from Gustav...but I tell you sure looks like an anticyclonic flow is trying to build in especially for Hanna's southern side.

Doesn't it look like gustav is helping her as well as far as moisture?