ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[El Nino]

Center of circulation is now almost at the coast. Landfall in 30 minutes I think.

[KWT]

Eye wrapped with moisture better than this morning.

This slow track clould be a touch more left. I suppose we'll see it move slowly over Terrebonne Bay and inland south of Lafayette. NHC must see the High pressure border, so I assume no shore-hugging west track will occur.

Yeah the eyewall has been wrapping a little better compared to about 6hrs ago, ndeed its nearly wrapped up again...I think the fricition from land is actually tightening the center up again and deep returns coming back.

[jlauderdal]

The storm surge at the Industrial Canal is at 10.50 feet and it will continue to increase. There is the real threat that it could overflow. Lets see what happens. This is according to the New Orleans TV station available on DirecTV channel 361.

cnn also had some good coverage, good lord would i be nervous if my house was anywhere near that canal..i was nervous when my pool overflowed in the no name storm, that canal is just a little bit of a bigger deal than my pool..

[PTPatrick]

Yeah...the guys on CNN sounded real optimistic because per Ali Velshi out on Grand Isle the water had only come up about 10 feet...wrong...he didnt calculate that the surge just goes over grand Isle...its doest have the pile up effect. If they have 10 feet in MS right now (which I have to assume there is at least that across most of the MS coast, the SE LA real surge is likely to be closer to 15...

Also I think when they talked to ali, the water had stopped rising, but the wind would have JUST started coming in from the south as far as I can tell. Will be interesting to see if it comes up anymore. PS I CANT believe those houses on Grand Isle arent flooded, stilts or not

[Evac3]

you should watch the weather channel then, you might find that more enjoyable based on attention span, its very visual and ideal for those people that prefer to get very basic information..enjoy your hurricane tracking

I'm enjoying watching CNN, Fox, and MSNBC's live reports. They are a little more stupid and get more out in the wind. Funny but dangerous.

[funster]

Met on WDSU sounding concerned about possible flooding on the northeast side. They also say water is just starting to rise on the west side. http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

[WindRunner]

Thanky. I guess I'll have to wait. I know they don't change the track but every six hours, but they have been updating the info in the little box every three. That 6am instead of 7am as usual is throwing me off.

They updated the info at the 8am CDT advisory (#31B) as well...the graphic should be updated


EDIT: I see the big graphic on the front of the homepage updated, but not the other ones...sounds like someone forgot to send the graphical side of their products. Then again, you can't exactly blame them during a time like this.

[KWT]

Indeed its looking possible the industral canal will overflow, 10.50 is pretty much the max it can take and if the waters rise, which they may well do yet a little further it could well overflow and seep over the top. I think the much slower motion in the last couple of hours is a pretty bad thing to have happened.

[Chacor]

069
UZNT13 KNHC 011426
XXAA 51147 99291 70906 08290 99955 27408 13506 00907 ///// /////
92288 26407 15008 85035 22604 16506 70718 15409 16509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =
XXBB 51148 99291 70906 08290 00955 27408 11850 22604 22749 19014
33697 15209
21212 00955 13506 11850 16506 22697 16509
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =

This dropsonde drop is just over land.

[Evac3]

069
UZNT13 KNHC 011426
XXAA 51147 99291 70906 08290 99955 27408 13506 00907 ///// /////
92288 26407 15008 85035 22604 16506 70718 15409 16509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =
XXBB 51148 99291 70906 08290 00955 27408 11850 22604 22749 19014
33697 15209
21212 00955 13506 11850 16506 22697 16509
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =

This dropsonde drop is just over land.

See... that's like trying to read a UPC code to me. Pretty little pictures are much better. What does all that up there say?

[jasons2k]

WDSU footage taking a turn for the worst.

[jlauderdal]

Met on WDSU sounding concerned about possible flooding on the northeast side. They also say water is just starting to rise on the west side. http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

yep, i was up at 4 am and by 5 she was sounding very confident, she sounds very different now..i thought she was being a little premature but i gave her the benefit of the doubt because she lives there

[PTrackerLA]

Good morning from Lafayette, rain has started here with winds to 30mph or so. Expecting cat 1 conditions by this afternoon so we'll see how this all unfolds. Don't like the satellite presentation with the heaviest convection still offshore and the possibility of Gustav riding the coast up to Lafayette which means it won't lose much intensity.

[Solaris]

Little north jog to latest radar imagery, centre seems to move right south-north in the terreborne bay

[funster]

Indeed its looking possible the industral canal will overflow, 10.50 is pretty much the max it can take and if the waters rise, which they may well do yet a little further it could well overflow and seep over the top. I think the much slower motion in the last couple of hours is a pretty bad thing to have happened.

Nagin just said it probably will overflow. There are also three ships loose in the canal that could smash against the levee. The met sounds very upset

[jlauderdal]

WDSU footage taking a turn for the worst.

no doubt, ray nagin dowsnt sound real confident and those canal pics have to be unsettling

[Chacor]

069
UZNT13 KNHC 011426
XXAA 51147 99291 70906 08290 99955 27408 13506 00907 ///// /////
92288 26407 15008 85035 22604 16506 70718 15409 16509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =
XXBB 51148 99291 70906 08290 00955 27408 11850 22604 22749 19014
33697 15209
21212 00955 13506 11850 16506 22697 16509
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =

This dropsonde drop is just over land.

See... that's like trying to read a UPC code to me. Pretty little pictures are much better. What does all that up there say?

You might want to bookmark http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon - it has a useful recon decoder. Basically, eye drop at 29.06N 90.62W. Pressure on drop 955 mbar at surface with 6 kt wind, which means actual pressure may be a few tenths of a millibar lower.

[Evac3]

That girl on MSNBC is getting POUNDED in Gulfport.

[Evac3]

069
UZNT13 KNHC 011426
XXAA 51147 99291 70906 08290 99955 27408 13506 00907 ///// /////
92288 26407 15008 85035 22604 16506 70718 15409 16509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =
XXBB 51148 99291 70906 08290 00955 27408 11850 22604 22749 19014
33697 15209
21212 00955 13506 11850 16506 22697 16509
31313 09608 81414
61616 AF307 2807A GUSTAV OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 2906N09062W 1417 MBL WND 14507 AEV 00000 DLM WND 15
506 955791 WL150 14006 080 =

This dropsonde drop is just over land.

See... that's like trying to read a UPC code to me. Pretty little pictures are much better. What does all that up there say?

You might want to bookmark http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon - it has a useful recon decoder. Basically, eye drop at 29.06N 90.62W. Pressure on drop 955 mbar at surface with 6 kt wind, which means actual pressure may be a few tenths of a millibar lower.

Thank you

[KWT]

Yeop and the key thing is the surge is still rising, at least we aren't talking about a breach yet though thats the good news but we've still got several hours where the surge will be coming in at its peak.

Eye looks like its finally very close to landfall now, a more NNW jog it seems just recently.