ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

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Philly12
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Re:

#721 Postby Philly12 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:Seems like some tightening in the model consensus with UKMET and outlier still:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html

That map is missing the CMC and the EURO. Both show a threat to FL.
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#722 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:03 pm

12Z GFDL does a cyclonic loop tomorrow, then NW just east of the Bahamas - landfall as a borderline cat 2/3 at the Georgia/South Carolina border.
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#723 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:03 pm

12Z UKMET continues to insist on SFL.
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Re:

#724 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:07 pm

x-y-no wrote:12Z GFDL does a cyclonic loop tomorrow, then NW just east of the Bahamas - landfall as a borderline cat 2/3 at the Georgia/South Carolina border.


Landfall looks just N of the FL/GA border.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#725 Postby Steve H. » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:11 pm

I Wouldn't count the UKMET out just yet....pretty much a rock of consistency to date. Funny how the GFS shifted left and the NOGAPS and CMC shifted right. FLorida and the SE US need to watch this closely. This should end up close to or stronger than Gustav at landfall. It certainly has that potential once the UL dynamics lighten up on her. :flag:
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Re: Re:

#726 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:13 pm

Blown_away wrote:
x-y-no wrote:12Z GFDL does a cyclonic loop tomorrow, then NW just east of the Bahamas - landfall as a borderline cat 2/3 at the Georgia/South Carolina border.


Landfall looks just N of the FL/GA border.


Doesn't look that way to me ...

90 hours:
Image

96 hours:
Image
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#727 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:23 pm

Hanna was supposed to be a hurricane several days from now. I guess being a hurricane now will help us a bit. Al models now take it into Ga or SC and up into western part of NC. Looks like a ride up the coast is out now. I afraid this will be bad news for SC though. Almost Hugo like.
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caneman

Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#728 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:39 pm

12z HWRF middle Ga. coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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caneman

Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#729 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:41 pm

Big shift West for HWRf. Was middle to lower SC.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#730 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:42 pm

Delete
Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#731 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:42 pm

12Z NOGAPS near the Cape and then riding along the coast to JAX.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008090112
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#732 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:44 pm

caneman wrote:12z HWRF middle Ga. coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


Interesting. Jacksonville would have some significant weather from that scenario.
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#733 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:47 pm

Another thing to note about that HWRF run - it has Hanna completing a cyclonic loop within 24 hours. If that's going to happen we ought to be seeing it real soon.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#734 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:54 pm

ronjon wrote:12Z NOGAPS near the Cape and then riding along the coast to JAX.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008090112



Hanna has a date with everyone along the Eastern Seaboard.

:wink:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#735 Postby bucman1 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:56 pm

Would the West coast of Fla still be in play for Hanna?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#736 Postby Sihara » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:10 pm

bucman1 wrote:Would the West coast of Fla still be in play for Hanna?


What bothers me is the UKMET cited in Philly12's post. Looks like a back-door hit isn't impossible. :(
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#737 Postby latemodel25 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:12 pm

weve been exceptionally lucky here in west central florida. not really liking the track on td 9.
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#738 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:23 pm

The 18z BAM models started WAY to south, and in different places.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_08.gif
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Hurricane Hanna Model Runs

#739 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:25 pm

Anyone notice on CMC and GFS 850 mb vorticity fields, suggestion that Hanna will ingest and/or share with TD 9 some of the vorticity that is Invest 90L?
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#740 Postby storms in NC » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:52 pm

As for history I guess that is why I don't buy into the Ga-SC landfall. I would say between Charleston and the Cape Fear River. Would be my guess.
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