ATL JOSEPHINE: Models Discussion

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ATL JOSEPHINE: Models Discussion

#1 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:46 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#2 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:31 am

:lol: Sorry, but I can't help laughing at that model plot :lol:
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:21 am

765
WHXX01 KWBC 010708
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0708 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992008) 20080901 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 0600 080901 1800 080902 0600 080902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 18.5W 13.2N 21.8W 14.0N 25.3W 15.1N 29.2W
BAMD 12.5N 18.5W 12.8N 21.3W 13.1N 24.0W 13.8N 26.4W
BAMM 12.5N 18.5W 13.1N 21.7W 13.7N 24.9W 14.4N 28.2W
LBAR 12.5N 18.5W 12.7N 21.7W 13.1N 25.1W 13.7N 28.8W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 0600 080904 0600 080905 0600 080906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 33.5W 15.7N 41.3W 13.6N 46.0W 12.4N 46.6W
BAMD 15.2N 28.6W 18.7N 32.1W 22.5N 32.0W 24.7N 30.1W
BAMM 15.3N 31.6W 16.4N 37.8W 16.8N 41.3W 18.0N 42.0W
LBAR 14.4N 32.2W 16.5N 38.5W 17.7N 42.7W 19.4N 43.0W
SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 69KTS
DSHP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 18.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 15.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 12.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#4 Postby captain east » Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:09 am

It just never ends, does it? :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:17 am

WHXX01 KWBC 011305
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 19.5W 13.3N 22.8W 14.2N 26.5W 15.2N 30.7W
BAMD 12.5N 19.5W 12.8N 22.3W 13.3N 24.9W 14.3N 27.2W
BAMM 12.5N 19.5W 13.1N 22.7W 13.7N 25.9W 14.5N 29.2W
LBAR 12.5N 19.5W 12.7N 22.4W 13.1N 25.7W 13.7N 29.0W
SHIP 30KTS 41KTS 51KTS 60KTS
DSHP 30KTS 41KTS 51KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 34.8W 13.3N 40.8W 11.8N 41.0W 13.7N 39.0W
BAMD 15.9N 29.3W 20.4N 32.5W 24.4N 33.8W 26.6N 31.5W
BAMM 15.2N 32.3W 16.2N 36.9W 18.6N 38.6W 21.5N 41.1W
LBAR 14.5N 32.2W 17.0N 37.7W 19.8N 40.9W 21.8N 42.4W
SHIP 67KTS 73KTS 69KTS 64KTS
DSHP 67KTS 73KTS 69KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 19.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 16.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 13.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

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#6 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:20 am

SHIPS suggesting this could be a hurricane, the GFDL also strengthens this system quite nicely as it heads WNW/NW but it is further north of the rest of the guidence thus far.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:50 pm

607
WHXX04 KWBC 011727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.5 19.5 270./14.0
6 12.1 20.6 249./11.4
12 12.2 22.1 275./14.3
18 12.5 23.6 281./15.0
24 12.8 25.2 281./16.4
30 12.9 26.9 273./16.6
36 13.0 28.3 276./13.4
42 13.4 29.7 283./13.8
48 13.4 31.1 272./13.3
54 13.6 32.0 279./ 9.0
60 14.1 32.4 321./ 7.2
66 15.3 33.3 321./14.4
72 15.9 34.2 307./10.8
78 16.7 35.2 309./12.1
84 17.4 36.0 311./10.4
90 18.4 36.7 322./11.9
96 19.6 37.8 319./15.2
102 20.3 38.8 306./12.0
108 21.1 39.7 310./11.8
114 21.8 40.6 309./11.4
120 22.9 41.4 322./12.9
126 23.6 42.1 319./ 9.9

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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#8 Postby El Nino » Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:51 pm

Fish
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:09 pm

El Nino wrote:Fish


Not exactly. It will affect the CVI. But it's likely to have a fish life afterwards.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#10 Postby fci » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
El Nino wrote:Fish


Not exactly. It will affect the CVI. But it's likely to have a fish life afterwards.


Would be nice if just ONE of these would go fishing. :fishing:
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:53 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 011836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992008) 20080901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1800 080902 0600 080902 1800 080903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 20.7W 13.7N 24.1W 14.7N 27.7W 15.4N 31.6W
BAMD 12.9N 20.7W 13.3N 23.3W 14.1N 25.6W 15.2N 27.8W
BAMM 12.9N 20.7W 13.5N 23.9W 14.1N 27.0W 14.7N 30.1W
LBAR 12.9N 20.7W 13.0N 23.4W 13.7N 26.5W 14.4N 29.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1800 080904 1800 080905 1800 080906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 35.1W 13.2N 39.4W 13.2N 39.3W 14.4N 37.5W
BAMD 17.0N 29.9W 21.5N 33.5W 25.8N 36.1W 29.5N 35.3W
BAMM 15.3N 32.8W 16.5N 36.0W 19.4N 37.3W 22.9N 39.6W
LBAR 15.5N 32.5W 18.2N 36.9W 22.1N 39.5W 24.5N 45.1W
SHIP 59KTS 63KTS 55KTS 47KTS
DSHP 59KTS 63KTS 55KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 20.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 18.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 15.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#12 Postby terrapintransit » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:55 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#13 Postby El Nino » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:43 pm

Just a question : why TD9 should go westwards and 99L go fishing ?
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#14 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:50 pm

Yep the models do suggest this will latch onto a weakness in the high that forms. The models were firstly expecting Ike to go intothat weakness but looks like it'll slip the net but 99L will probably take a track similar to Karl 2004 IMO.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#15 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:57 pm

From NHC in regards to 99L

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

It could be Josephine as early as tonight or tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:22 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Ten Model Runs

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:48 am

WHXX01 KWBC 021341
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1341 UTC TUE SEP 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE (AL102008) 20080902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080902 1200 080903 0000 080903 1200 080904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 24.6W 14.3N 28.1W 15.4N 31.7W 15.4N 35.3W
BAMD 13.0N 24.6W 13.7N 26.8W 14.8N 28.9W 16.3N 30.6W
BAMM 13.0N 24.6W 13.7N 27.6W 14.5N 30.3W 15.1N 32.8W
LBAR 13.0N 24.6W 13.5N 27.2W 14.5N 30.0W 15.5N 32.5W
SHIP 35KTS 47KTS 56KTS 63KTS
DSHP 35KTS 47KTS 56KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200 080907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 39.0W 13.7N 43.7W 13.0N 45.6W 13.1N 46.5W
BAMD 18.3N 32.5W 22.3N 35.0W 24.4N 34.6W 25.0N 32.8W
BAMM 16.0N 35.5W 17.9N 39.8W 19.6N 43.8W 21.2N 48.1W
LBAR 16.6N 35.0W 19.3N 39.1W 22.6N 42.1W 26.1N 41.8W
SHIP 66KTS 55KTS 44KTS 40KTS
DSHP 66KTS 55KTS 44KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 24.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 21.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 19.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM


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#18 Postby meteorologyman » Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:53 am

This storm better not lean towards a WNW from NW as nhc predicts in a longrun, It better fish
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Josephine Model Runs

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 02, 2008 1:17 pm

!2z UKMET doesnt go in a recurving mode.



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2008



TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 24.9W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.09.2008 12.1N 24.9W WEAK

00UTC 03.09.2008 12.6N 27.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2008 13.3N 29.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.09.2008 14.4N 32.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2008 15.5N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2008 16.0N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2008 16.7N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2008 17.3N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2008 17.4N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2008 16.7N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2008 16.9N 47.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 18.1N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2008 17.7N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

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Re: ATL 10L.JOSEPHINE - Model Runs

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:46 pm

899
WHXX01 KWBC 030031
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC WED SEP 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE (AL102008) 20080903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080903 0000 080903 1200 080904 0000 080904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 26.3W 14.9N 29.7W 15.8N 33.6W 16.3N 37.8W
BAMD 13.5N 26.3W 14.4N 28.7W 15.9N 30.8W 17.9N 33.0W
BAMM 13.5N 26.3W 14.4N 29.2W 15.3N 32.0W 16.4N 35.1W
LBAR 13.5N 26.3W 14.4N 28.5W 15.6N 30.6W 16.9N 32.8W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 60KTS 62KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 60KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080905 0000 080906 0000 080907 0000 080908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 41.4W 15.5N 46.6W 15.8N 49.9W 17.5N 53.3W
BAMD 20.2N 34.7W 23.2N 35.4W 23.9N 35.0W 23.6N 34.9W
BAMM 17.8N 37.7W 20.1N 42.3W 22.4N 47.5W 24.5N 53.1W
LBAR 18.2N 34.8W 20.9N 37.8W 24.5N 39.7W 26.4N 39.2W
SHIP 60KTS 50KTS 39KTS 38KTS
DSHP 60KTS 50KTS 39KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 26.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 24.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 21.9W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN
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