ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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BigA
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs

#21 Postby BigA » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:06 pm

If this develops, it will be a player...so goes the year. We haven't had a fish yet.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:08 am

WHXX01 KWBC 011254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 38.8W 18.5N 41.8W 19.6N 45.0W 20.9N 48.2W
BAMD 17.4N 38.8W 18.2N 41.5W 18.8N 44.4W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 17.4N 38.8W 18.3N 41.7W 19.1N 44.7W 19.9N 47.6W
LBAR 17.4N 38.8W 18.1N 42.0W 19.1N 45.2W 20.4N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 51.8W 26.9N 59.2W 30.4N 62.9W 31.6N 64.9W
BAMD 20.0N 50.4W 21.1N 57.1W 21.3N 63.6W 20.6N 70.4W
BAMM 20.7N 50.9W 22.5N 58.0W 23.8N 64.1W 23.8N 70.0W
LBAR 21.7N 52.3W 25.0N 58.0W 26.5N 62.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

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#23 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:14 am

Looks like it may follow in the footsteps of Hanna, could be one landfalling system after another if the trend continues from the model...early days yet :eek:
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs

#24 Postby El Nino » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:38 am

No real consensus but the majority is tracking to the Bahamas ... What about shear ?
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs

#25 Postby captain east » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:44 am

Yup, looks like Hanna's baby brother soon...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:15 pm

12z HWRF tracks almost west towards the Bahamas as a major cane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:45 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 011831
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1831 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1800 080902 0600 080902 1800 080903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 40.0W 18.2N 42.6W 19.1N 45.5W 19.9N 48.4W
BAMD 17.4N 40.0W 17.9N 42.7W 18.4N 45.4W 18.9N 48.3W
BAMM 17.4N 40.0W 18.0N 42.7W 18.5N 45.5W 19.0N 48.4W
LBAR 17.4N 40.0W 17.8N 42.8W 18.5N 46.2W 19.5N 49.6W
SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 61KTS 68KTS
DSHP 40KTS 52KTS 61KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1800 080904 1800 080905 1800 080906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 51.6W 22.8N 57.8W 23.2N 62.9W 22.7N 68.8W
BAMD 19.3N 51.4W 19.5N 57.8W 18.7N 64.4W 18.0N 71.3W
BAMM 19.5N 51.4W 20.3N 57.7W 20.0N 63.6W 19.5N 70.1W
LBAR 20.3N 53.1W 22.0N 59.0W 22.3N 64.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 71KTS 71KTS 66KTS 64KTS
DSHP 71KTS 71KTS 66KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 40.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 37.1W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM


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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#28 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:57 pm

NHC on the north side of guidance for Ike...this is a horrible track for SF and possibly the gulf..will I get ANY sleep this week!
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Scorpion

#29 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:59 pm

Indeed.

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#30 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:00 pm

South Florida has a scare like we've had in Louisiana ahead of them unfortunately with high confidence from the NHC and models of the storm trending like an Andrew-track.


Scary stuff...we seemed to have escaped doom and gloom here...I certainly don't wish it elsewhere. Thankfully they are keeping Hanna under Major Hurricane status for the time being...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#31 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:17 pm

12Z ECMWF day 7:

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#32 Postby Jinkers » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:22 pm

I don't think I like Ike.. :cry:
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Re:

#33 Postby El Nino » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:24 pm

Scorpion wrote:Indeed.

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Bye NO
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#34 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:37 pm

12z Euro same scenario..strong high pushes it in the gulf recurving in the central gulf
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#35 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:40 pm

Something itches me that the models will bend more right.
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#36 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:50 pm

I have to agree....potential Mobile/Panhandle threat. Everyone in that region should watch this thing VERY closely.



(This is of course very, premature. I'm not trying to scare)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#37 Postby Sihara » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:25 pm

Ivanhater wrote:NHC on the north side of guidance for Ike...this is a horrible track for SF and possibly the gulf..will I get ANY sleep this week!


Ehh! It does look bad, Ivanhater. Might have some sleepless nights just tracking it.


Jinkers wrote:I don't think I like Ike.. :cry:
Funny, I was just reminding my husband of the old campaign buttons and told him, this time mine would say "I don't like Ike."
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#38 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:28 pm

Well the ECM really drags Ike well south...this could be a very interesting set-up, it almost smacks me of Andrew in terms of track, not saying strength wise just track is, WNW then a bend back westwards as the ridge builds back in again after Hanna.

Man this is season is turning out to be as bad as 04 and 05 at this rate!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Nine Model Runs

#39 Postby Windy » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:42 pm

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#40 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:47 pm

Wow what a mental run from HWRF, that model sort of shows a Georges set-up it seems.
It really ramps up Ike into a beastly hurricane!
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