ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[El Nino]

I really think Haïti doesn't have finished yet with flooding and deaths

[Patrick99]

Doesn't seem like there's anything in the forseeable future stopping Ike from becoming your classic Cape Verde major hurricane.

[Stormcenter]

Indeed.

Why I do believe I have a better chance of winning the lottery the this actually panning out?

[Windy]

Indeed.

Why I do believe I have a better chance of winning the lottery the this actually panning out?

Probably because long range guidance is so poor with today's technology. Though if it does verify, we'll be sure to ressurect this post!

[cajungal]

I just had a direct hit from Gustav. I didn't even get back to my house yet. Just please please keep Ike from the Gulf Of Mexico. I just can't go through this again. I am hearing reports of hevy damage to my neighborhood and the surrounding areas.

[Cyclenall]

Why I do believe I have a better chance of winning the lottery the this actually panning out?

I'm not sure why because you don't have a better chance at winning the lottery.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't laugh at Euro yet, 18Z GFDL (and it kicked butt last few days on Gustav), due West almost, borderline Cat 4/Cat 5 in Bahamas, apparently headed for Florida Straits or South Florida.


HWRF almost the same, except a sub 900 mb Cat 5


18Z GFS shows Ike no respect, but 500 mb pattern suggests through South Florida/Straits or Cuba, and then a turn Northward...



Too early to call, but Euro might be right on Ike...

[Ivanhater]

Yep Ed..every single model have a due west motion..likely will go in the Gulf..as the NHC said..forecast certainty is very high

[KWT]

Not quite Ed, it heads towards Cuba!!

Thats one hell of a track, its almost as straight west as Dean was in 07!

I suspect the models maybe somewhat overdoing the westerly motion but it does look possibly more of a threat to Cuba than Florida if some of the models are too believed
After that, who knows!

[stormchazer]

Hard to believe there will not be some poleward motion with it approaching at that high of inital lattitude, and the remants of Hanna and possible Gustav exiting to the n then NE, will there be at least a subtle weakness. Hey we have seen it before but it sure would be "stress-city" with a major approaching the Gulf so soon after Gustav.

[Wx_Warrior]

Kick butt 3-5 days out...Long range means nothing to me.

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW the 18Z HWRF has a Cat 5 hurricane approaching the southern Bahamas:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 020106
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0106 UTC TUE SEP 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000 080903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 40.9W 18.8N 43.9W 19.7N 47.0W 20.8N 50.3W
BAMD 17.9N 40.9W 18.5N 43.9W 19.2N 46.9W 19.8N 50.1W
BAMM 17.9N 40.9W 18.6N 44.0W 19.4N 47.0W 20.0N 50.4W
LBAR 17.9N 40.9W 18.6N 43.8W 19.4N 47.0W 20.4N 50.6W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 73KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080904 0000 080905 0000 080906 0000 080907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 54.0W 25.0N 60.4W 25.3N 65.4W 24.6N 71.4W
BAMD 20.4N 53.4W 20.4N 60.1W 18.9N 67.4W 17.2N 75.2W
BAMM 20.9N 53.7W 21.9N 60.0W 21.3N 65.9W 19.9N 72.7W
LBAR 21.2N 54.1W 22.2N 60.1W 22.4N 65.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 74KTS 70KTS 61KTS 60KTS
DSHP 74KTS 70KTS 61KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 35.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$

[Nimbus]

Maybe Hanna will use up all the hot water in the Bahamas.
Ike will only have enough heat content for cold showers.

Seriously though strong ridge forecasts a week out sometimes bust.

[Stormcenter]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

Not if Mr. Trough is already residing in the Gulf.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

Maybe if you live in Texas....lol.


Unbelievable model consensus...take it to the bank. I'll be watching Ike closely this week...

[southerngale]

Indeed.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Why I do believe I have a better chance of winning the lottery the this actually panning out?

Probably because long range guidance is so poor with today's technology. Though if it does verify, we'll be sure to ressurect this post!

You might want to save the image to Imageshack then. He linked directly to ecmwf.int so I'm not sure if it will save the image as is.

And a reminder to everyone: Please upload images to Imageshack, Photobucket, or another image hosting site before posting. Thanks.

[Dean4Storms]

This looks ominous with such a strong ridge being shown by nearly all the guidance. This one has the makings of a big one!

[boca]

I know all the models have Ike moving due west but their was supposed to be a massive ridge north of Hanna which never was that strong. My point is these models don't have a good grasp on the strengths of high pressure systems. I don't expect Ike to move due west.I think by Wed/Thurs the models will show something different.