ATL: IKE Discussion

[Windy]

So looks like the NHC now expecting 80kts out of this but in the longer term they probably would like to go higher even though in truth they probably can't. we've seen so many times a hurricane with an inner core really strengthen past 18N and 55W as they start to reach increasingly warm waters and higher heat content.

NHC is being conservative (as they should); some of the models deepen the heck out of Ike, well beyond 80kts.

[KWT]

Yeah Windy as this system ramps up I suspect they will raise thier intensity forecasts. Given its got such a long track over warmer and warmer waters its quite possible this one will eventually be a major hurricane somewhere down the line but for now we have to wait and see...

Looking like being a threat to the USA...again...

By the new new convection developing near the center, as we head into Dmax this should continue.

[wxman57]

Ike at 10 days, according to the ECMWF:

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, could you give us your thoughts on Ike?

[Ivanhater]

Yeah wxman..noted that earlier..here we go again

[KWT]

Its very interesting, the NHC path at the moment sort of suggestive of a possible Florida hit, i think it wouldn't be too wise going beyond that point just yet, indeed the ECM even has this hitting Cuba and missing Florida to the south but I think the ECM is probably over egging the ridge.

[ROCK]

Ike at 10 days, according to the ECMWF:

240hrs.....not sure that verifies but it makes for interesting viewing.....

[KWT]

ROCK, it seems like the ECM has had a fetish for a gulf hit uin the last week!

In this case its certainly a possible option given the strength of the high that some models are forming, upto 594dam according to some models!

This should keep it on a due west path once around 55-60W i'd have thought.Early days still...

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL and HWRF both have major hurricanes moving Westward into the Caribbean (see model thread) and 18Z GFS, while losing Ike, has edge of 500 mb ridge just West of Florida, so Euro may be right on.

HWRF is a sub 900 mb Cat 5.



The big hurricane story of 2008? Bigger than Fay, Gustav and Hanna?


Could be.

[KWT]

Just to early to say, but if it hits Cuba its going to be hard to beat Gustav's 150mph Ed so who knows. I suspect the models are slightly overcooking the upper high but its very strong looking in the future and thus a Cuba landfall is certainly an option on the table, as is south Florida and the Keys, its just too early to know but such a westerly path is rather rare for that length of time.

[Hyperstorm]

Honestly, I wouldn't put much faith in ANY of the model forecasts past day 3.

Remember Hannah? Most, if not all, models forecasted the storm to move well NW before making a HUGE southward motion toward Cuba. Yes, the storm is located near the general area, but the details of the forecast were very far off and the HUGE southward motion toward Cuba never materialized.

Just look at models through day 3. AFTER day 3, look at them just for guidance and even entertainment.

[HURAKAN]

There is no comparison between Ike and Hanna about the steering currents. The ridge will hold over Ike for the foreseeable future. The NHC is confident in their forecast and Mayfield says the same.

[Hyperstorm]

There is no comparison between Ike and Hanna about the steering currents. The ridge will hold over Ike for the foreseeable future. The NHC is confident in their forecast and Mayfield says the same.

Regardless of what models predict, track forecasts after day 3 still have average errors that could be large. And even some are trying to sound confident in their thoughts after day 5. Amazing...

I'm not saying they are incorrect in their current forecasts. My observation is DO NOT put much faith in model forecasts that far out, regardless of the confidence. Anything can change. I would not worry at all anywhere in the Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida for a few more days.

Stay worry-free and just follow closely the GUIDANCE...

[apocalypt-flyer]

Staying worry-free regarding Ike is one of the biggest mistakes one could make. Under the current cirumstances I'd say that the day 5 guidance of Ike is possibly more accurate than most of the previous/early 3 day guidances regarding Hanna (in terms of track). Hurakan is pretty much right there.

I'm not putting the NHC down here becaue Hanna is/was a mean lady of a storm to track but Ike just seems a lot more obvious and the steering currents will be a lot more clearcut than compared to Miss Hanna.

[ROCK]

GFDL and HWRF both have major hurricanes moving Westward into the Caribbean (see model thread) and 18Z GFS, while losing Ike, has edge of 500 mb ridge just West of Florida, so Euro may be right on.

HWRF is a sub 900 mb Cat 5.



The big hurricane story of 2008? Bigger than Fay, Gustav and Hanna?


Could be.

Both the GFDL and HWRF are known for there over intensity issues....and if your looking at the 500mb ridge set up over FL 240 hrs away from the GFS, well that is pretty much la la land....

I do think it will get into the Carib or over FL and then the GOM, I am not that bold to say where in the GOM 10 days out....

[cycloneye]

There is a thread at Tropical Analysis forum,where any member can ask questions about IKE to our pro mets and you will get the answer there.

Link to thread viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1805680#p1805680

Its better to do it that way as questions that members may have get lost on these main threads as the speed of posting is very high.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

60kts+ winds already showing up around the circulation center. and Microwave data shows a partly developed eyewall.

[Dean4Storms]

This is as straight a hurricane forecasting situation as it gets. Large/Strong Atlantic Ridge pushing westward to the north of a TC indicated by just about all guidance. Still it would be an unusual event for even September at this latitude for a TC to track that far westward from the mid-Atlantic and make it to the Gulf, particularly south of Florida. I cannot bring any recent storm to mind for sure.

[Blown Away]

That is one confident 5 day error cone, 2100 miles long! WOW...

[cpdaman]

This is as straight a hurricane forecasting situation as it gets. Large/Strong Atlantic Ridge pushing westward to the north of a TC indicated by just about all guidance. Still it would be an unusual event for even September at this latitude for a TC to track that far westward from the mid-Atlantic and make it to the Gulf, particularly south of Florida. I cannot bring any recent storm to mind for sure.

is it really? ike looks stronger earlier.........UL trough to the west looks like it is holding on longer......won't this go NW any time now as in "ike make a right at ULL exit"