ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Agreed Hyperstorm this looks like being our next player, should be a TS in the next 24hrs I think as well, conditions look decent for this and as long as it doesn't bend to ofar to the NW too quickly then this vould well be a hurricane as long as the distance remains about the same between Ike and this system.

[wxman57]

This morning's QuikSCAT showed a well-defined LLC and at least one un-flagged 45kt west wind. I think it's pretty clearly Josephine whenever the NHC decides it has a few free minutes to name it. Take your time, NHC, we have enough to do now at my office.

I just worked up my hurricane team's schedule through September. I get my first day off (since August 24) on September 13th! That's assuming there's no threatening storm after Ike hits.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 012319
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...ON HURRICANE
HANNA...LOCATED NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ON RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IKE...LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IKE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IKE ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.


$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

That high wxman57, in that case I suspect the NHC will once again upgrade it to a TD after the next Qscat comes through then upgrade next possible advisroy.

[RL3AO]

Heres the new QS

[Cryomaniac]

I just worked up my hurricane team's schedule through September. I get my first day off (since August 24) on September 13th! That's assuming there's no threatening storm after Ike hits.

The way things are going, that could be a pretty big assumption

[Weatherfreak000]

It's obviously a TD...ugh...the NHC really does get to me with this ocean waits.


If the storm falls apart before they classify it...it DESERVES classification. Not saying that will happen here but there should be no difference between a TD in the Gulf, and a TD in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 17N WITH A 1007 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERING AN AREA FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WWD AT
15 KT.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[KWT]

Discussion is suggesting this probably is very close to being upgraded given it could be upgraded tonight, its just a matter of when really?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It's obviously a TD...ugh...the NHC really does get to me with this ocean waits.


If the storm falls apart before they classify it...it DESERVES classification. Not saying that will happen here but there should be no difference between a TD in the Gulf, and a TD in the Atlantic.

I agree that is the way it should be. The quickscat in fact does show a well defined LLC. Not the best one, but one at that.

[cycloneye]

Best Track for 99L at the 00:00 UTC update:

AL, 99, 2008090200, , BEST, 0, 126N, 220W, 30, 1008, LO,

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

01/2345 UTC 11.9N 22.2W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

I think its pretty hard for the NHC not to upgrade with it now getting a 2.0.

[bob rulz]

Indeed. I see no reason this shouldn't be upgraded at 11.

[superfly]

I agree that is the way it should be. The quickscat in fact does show a well defined LLC. Not the best one, but one at that.

It's not well-defined at all, where's the west winds?

edit: the ascending pass does show west winds, but it's still not well-defined, very elongated east to west.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that is the way it should be. The quickscat in fact does show a well defined LLC. Not the best one, but one at that.

It's not well-defined at all, where's the west winds?

edit: the ascending pass does show west winds, but it's still not well-defined, very elongated east to west.

Too bad we cannot send Recon out there...

[El Nino]

I agree that is the way it should be. The quickscat in fact does show a well defined LLC. Not the best one, but one at that.

It's not well-defined at all, where's the west winds?

edit: the ascending pass does show west winds, but it's still not well-defined, very elongated east to west.

I agree, not all quadrants are well defined. We should wait ...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=09&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi


Looks good, looks better then Ike. Hell it looks better then Hanna. This thing looks great and has a closed LLC.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=09&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi


Looks good, looks better then Ike. Hell it looks better then Hanna. This thing looks great and has a closed LLC.

Ike; yes. Hanna; I think your stretching it a bit. I doubt 99L has 80 mph winds.

[bahamaswx]

Looks good, looks better then Ike. Hell it looks better then Hanna. This thing looks great and has a closed LLC.

This is dying hurricane Michelle moving over the Bahamas. Given that a storm this ugly brought 90mph winds and 12" of rain to my little island, I no longer care much about appearance.