ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

KWT · #761 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:03 pm

No Blown_away, the ECM probably won't be out for a good 7-8hrs yet.

GFDL 18z showing this down to 948mbs... :eek:

DESTRUCTION5 · #762 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:06 pm

Blown_away wrote:The ECMWF only runs twice a day 00Z & 12Z, correct? So we should be getting a new ECMWF run shortly? This model is aka the Euro?

EURO came out et 3pm EST

DESTRUCTION5 · #763 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:17 pm

ronjon wrote:18Z GFS near Savannah at 90 hrs.

Question for the Pro's why does the GFS kill off a well developed Ike? And since this is the case does it effect the setup out in front of it?

#764 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:24 pm

http://www.crownweather.com/hanna.html

#765 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:25 pm

Trader Ron wrote:http://www.crownweather.com/hanna.html

Look at the wind swath forecast

#766 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:25 pm

Destruction, GFS refused to develop Dolly Fay and Gustav to start..ike has an excellent setup for further intensification

MusicCityMan · #767 Postby **MusicCityMan** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:52 pm

any chances the track shifts even further southward? or is that not likely.. she is at the very least supposed 2 get very close to florida.

#768 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:57 pm

Blown_away wrote:The ECMWF only runs twice a day 00Z & 12Z, correct? So we should be getting a new ECMWF run shortly? This model is aka the Euro?

00Z ECMWF won't post to the web until after 2 AM.

invest man · #769 Postby **invest man** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:21 pm

I just noticred the 0z model runs. Looks to me that the models has shifted a little n toward the Charleston, SC area. IMO the longer she hangs out over the SE Bahamas the more N ward the tracts will shift. Any thoughts?

GTStorm · #770 Postby **GTStorm** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:29 pm

invest man wrote:I just noticred the 0z model runs. Looks to me that the models has shifted a little n toward the Charleston, SC area. IMO the longer she hangs out over the SE Bahamas the more N ward the tracts will shift. Any thoughts?

I saw that too. Maybe it'll just keep on re-curving with each subsequent run. I don't know enough to talk intelligently about what would drive that shift. Is the high forecast to just not develop that far west? Is there an approaching trough that is getting stronger with each forecast run? Dunno. Maybe a met can help.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Emmett_Brown · #771 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:39 pm

jaxfladude · #772 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:41 pm

Looking better for me(always good news for one and bad news for another)...bad bad news for SC if this pans out..prayers that Hanna is not a major hurricane at that point...if the right shift has occurred....left shift worse for me...

#773 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:45 pm

invest man wrote:I just noticred the 0z model runs. Looks to me that the models has shifted a little n toward the Charleston, SC area. IMO the longer she hangs out over the SE Bahamas the more N ward the tracts will shift. Any thoughts?

There is no 00z models out yet

NCWeatherChic · #774 Postby **NCWeatherChic** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:28 pm

I have been saying all today that I feel like this is another 89' Hugo event. Looks like the set up is there. She keeps nudging ever so slightly S, then more than likely she will go more N at the end.

SouthFLTropics · #775 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:32 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
invest man wrote:I just noticred the 0z model runs. Looks to me that the models has shifted a little n toward the Charleston, SC area. IMO the longer she hangs out over the SE Bahamas the more N ward the tracts will shift. Any thoughts?

There is no 00z models out yet

Agreed. 00z models won't begin until around 11:30PM EDT. They will start with the GFS then.

SFT

Steve H. · #776 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:37 pm

There are no reliable 0z runs yet, 'cept maybe the numericals.

Steve H. · #777 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:41 pm

There are no reliable 0z runs yet, 'cept maybe the numericals.

#778 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:48 pm

actually the longer this hangs out I would be more inclined the further west this would go...
The ridge will be building in....not away.

#779 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:50 pm

deltadog03 wrote:actually the longer this hangs out I would be more inclined the further west this would go...
The ridge will be building in....not away.

Would the current strength help this cause as well?

Steve H. · #780 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:51 pm

Agree D' Dog. The whole premise of the track is to wait until the closed vortex in the NW Atlantic turn NE then the ridge builds back west. The more time Hanna stays south, the more time the ridge has to build back to the west.

ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

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