ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[sponger]

All bets are off until shes moving. I wont worry unless Wed runs and nhc track are tightening up on N Fl. Its way to early to make any educated guesses. I'd feel pretty good if I was down the center of the track this far out.

[AtlanticWind]

It is uncommon for the models to be in such good agreement on a storm that is stationary.

[Steve H.]

i really hate to ask this question, but since he predicted Hanna would be a large storm, what does JB have to say about her path?

[BensonTCwatcher]

It is because the globals are in good agreement on the ridge building in.

[DESTRUCTION5]

i really hate to ask this question, but since he predicted Hanna would be a large storm, what does JB have to say about her path?

Floyd like track with a Hugo Endgame..

[Bgator]

When do the 00z' come out?

[fci]

i really hate to ask this question, but since he predicted Hanna would be a large storm, what does JB have to say about her path?

Which forecast?
The one from a few days ago that had a cat 3/4 hitting South Florida or the lastest guess?

Seriously, it is reported in the other thread that he was on FOX tonight talking about Hanna be a historic strke on the SE US coast.

[Meso]

The 00z GFDL and HWRF show a weaker system at landfall, the GFDL shows around a 90 knot landfall. HWRF skirting close to Florida

[ericinmia]

06z model map... "too close for comefort, although my worry lies more with Ike"

[Nimbus]

Still sinking south toward Haiti this morning. Little unusual for a trough to dig that far south and split.

I'm thinking if a trough does split further south that means the ridging will build in further south. Maybe we will see some inhibiting land interaction with Haiti or even Cuba?

[jlauderdal]

06z model map... "too close for comefort, although my worry lies more with Ike"

eric, remember floyd, had to put up shutters for that bad boy for a similiar track, today is key for ultimate trajectory based on basic geometry especially for eventual landfall but 50-100 miles is huge for us and effects here

[jlauderdal]

i really hate to ask this question, but since he predicted Hanna would be a large storm, what does JB have to say about her path?

Which forecast?
The one from a few days ago that had a cat 3/4 hitting South Florida or the lastest guess?

Seriously, it is reported in the other thread that he was on FOX tonight talking about Hanna be a historic strke on the SE US coast.

nhc is talking about an intensifying major so he could be right, lets see what transpires, today is huge in terms of evantual landfall point, how much movement and what direction before its starts NW as progged by nhc

[physicx07]

Still sinking south toward Haiti this morning. Little unusual for a trough to dig that far south and split.

I'm thinking if a trough does split further south that means the ridging will build in further south. Maybe we will see some inhibiting land interaction with Haiti or even Cuba?

Which models are showing the trough splitting off to the southwest? I just read about it in the 5 a.m. discussion, but somehow I don't see it on the GFS or NAM. Can you help me see it in the models? The NGM I think sort of shows something north of Panama. Is that what they are talking about?

[ericinmia]

i really hate to ask this question, but since he predicted Hanna would be a large storm, what does JB have to say about her path?

Which forecast?
The one from a few days ago that had a cat 3/4 hitting South Florida or the lastest guess?

Seriously, it is reported in the other thread that he was on FOX tonight talking about Hanna be a historic strke on the SE US coast.

nhc is talking about an intensifying major so he could be right, lets see what transpires, today is huge in terms of evantual landfall point, how much movement and what direction before its starts NW as progged by nhc

Yeah Jim, I think I hated floyd more just on the basis I did all that work and then it turned. I agree that by the end of the day we should have a fairly good handle on what it is that Hannah may do. Although at the moment, and with the current steering... Hannah may be a dud. She is a hop, skip and a jump away from landfalling Haiti it seems in IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
-Eric

[deltadog03]

If you noticed the model spreads, they are closer to florida in the short term. The landfall point looks about the same, but also if you read Stewart's disco, there is much uncertainty specially in the short term....

[KWT]

The models just aren't getting a grip with this southerly motion that Hanna is displaying, I suspect it can't go much further south from where it is and therefore will lift out sooner rather than later I'd have thought.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS Landfall Jax

[KWT]

What sort of timeframe by the way DESTRUCTION5?

[DESTRUCTION5]

What sort of timeframe by the way DESTRUCTION5?

Thurs eve

[Meso]