ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[lbvbl]

So why didn't this continuing SW movement reflect in the track at all?

[NCWeatherChic]

No one is out of the woods yet, but I still think Charleston SC is the bulls eye. That's what my crystal ball has shown me.

Really though, I do think it will be in my IMO.

[bahamaswx]

track shifted slightly to the east

also interesting that the are now using the Pine key obseravation (in their disco) that have been linked here numerous times.........they forgot to use it last nite (when pine key was down to 995) and they had hanna at 997

they say in 24-36 hours should be able to intensify and they don't forecast weakening in the short term.......so looks like the fl is becoming less and less of a chance for this one to landfall.

Indeed. I found it amusing that they referenced the Pine Cay station so often. Most important change IMO it that the discussion states that a major landfalling hurricane is only possible, but perhaps expected.

[JtSmarts]

According to local news, (http://www.wltx.com/video/livestrmplayer.aspx) Savannah officials have been discussing potentially starting evacs on Wed depending how the track evolves.

[bahamaswx]

So why didn't this continuing SW movement reflect in the track at all?

She's not moving SW.

[skufful]

As normal, the cone moves east. Tomorrow, it will probably be the OB or maybe fish.

[lbvbl]

Further SouthWest than 8PM.

HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.5W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

[HURAKAN]

110
WTNT23 KNHC 020253
TCMAT3
HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.5W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

[BensonTCwatcher]

4 kts is 'purt near a drift (see 11p nhc discussion)

[Aric Dunn]

[CrazyC83]

3 dead from Hanna in the waters off Florida: http://www.wcpo.com/news/local/story.as ... 6f&rss=703 and http://www.local10.com/news/17357512/de ... a&psp=news

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

Also the outflow on the N and NW side is diffuse and feathery. Not as if sheared to the SE

That upper airflow map shows Hanna being vented by Gus to Hanna's south and SW. Hanna's outflow rode the circulation of Gus' outflow to Hanna's SW. The ULL vented Hanna's NE side. This could explain the sudden improvement.


If only Turks and Caicos had radar.

[bahamaswx]

Looks like primitive banding developing on NW quad. Shear certainly on the decrease.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes, if the center bands close off ( I think they are trying to remember Aric's last two NRL posts) we could a very differnt looking storm tom morning even.

[Hockey007]

Is that the center the thing that the convection is appearing around?

[bahamaswx]

Is that the center the thing that the convection is appearing around?

Indeed. It's pretty close to being under that deep convection to the NE of Inagua...the southern-most island in the Bahamas.

[cpdaman]

hockey you are on to something

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

3:32 utc frame shows banding filling in south side of center........uh oh

she's pretty far south .....close to se cuba 110 to the NE / northern dr 95 miles to the north

[BensonTCwatcher]

gotta turn in, expecting hanna to present as a HC on sat in the morning. Hope not, but does not look good.

[Derek Ortt]

could be another large loss of life in Haiti. That band may sit over them for a couple of days